2014-15 NFL Week 12: Les Clevelérables

[Bregor]

♫ There's a mistake just by the lake ♫
♫ I like to watch them on Sunday ♫
♫ No good players for them to pay ♫
♫ Not with the mistake by the lake ♫

♫ There is a field that's full of grass ♫
♫ There are ten-thousand angry fans ♫
♫ They watch a team with no good plans ♫
♫ All with the mistake by the lake ♫

♫ There is a man who calls the plays ♫
♫ He's the son of a coach who did the same ♫
♫ His gaze is blank and he's out of touch ♫
♫ He says, "Manziel, I hate you very much" ♫

♫ I know a place where all is lost ♫
♫ I know a place where hope is dead ♫
♫ Fans in this place can't catch a break ♫
♫ Not with the mistake by the lake ♫


Last week:

M/L: 8-6
ATS: 9-5

Overall:

M/L: 100-60-1
ATS: 78-81-2


Bye week: Carolina, Pittsburgh


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20TH

8:25pm EST, NFL Network

Kansas City at Oakland (+7) - The mother of all trap games, Kansas City faces the winless Raiders on a Thursday night the week after they beat Seattle and the week before they host Denver. Jamaal Charles schooled the Seahawks defense last week, racking up 178 yards from scrimmage on just 22 touches. The other key to last week's victory was the 3rd- and 4th-down defense, holding Seattle to two red zone field goals and also getting off the field late in the game. They only sacked Russell Wilson twice but had consistent pressure, recording 9 QB hits. They're basically Seattle Lite, or considering Andy Reid's diet, Seattle Extra Crispy. They will be just as dangerous come playoff time, especially at home. Oakland played the Chargers tough for the second time this season, holding PRivs to just 193 yards passing. But the offensive struggles continue for the Raiders, as Derek Carr failed to throw a touchdown and the team was 3-for-15 on 3rd down. The MJD-Run DMC tag team has been dreadful, although they're not getting much help up front. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion they'll get the first pick in the draft, but if they believe in Carr then where do they go? Three of the top four prospects according to Scouts Inc. are defensive ends, but they could really use a physical receiver in the Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin mold. I'm not really sure that's available, since most of the top WR prospects are smaller, faster, but also more polished. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself here. I just really like the NFL Draft. Chiefs win and cover.


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23RD

1:00pm EST, CBS

Cleveland at Atlanta (-3) - Fuck the Browns. Losing last week's game against Houston dropped them from the division lead and the 4th seed in the AFC all the way down to the 10th seed. You expect JJ Watt to disrupt your offensive game plan, but they actually held him and the front seven in check with only two sacks and 4 QB hits allowed. The real problem was Brian Football, going 20-for-50 (!) in the passing game. Cleland gets their lost son, Josh Gordon, back this week. Whether or not he'll deliver enough production to keep them in the playoff hunt also depends on Hoyer. Meanwhile, the division-leading 4-6 Atlanta Falcons are riding a two-game win streak. Their defense is playing better and Matt Ryan hasn't thrown a pick since their bye week. Of course, they've only played Tampa and Carolina, so who knows if the improvement will stick. Haden vs. JULIO will be a match-up to watch, as will Atlanta's run game against the porous Cleland front. Call me a homer, but I think Gordon causes enough trouble in his return to really open things up offensively. Over-47 and CLE+3 seems like the play here. Fuck it, Browns in the upset.

Tennessee at Philadelphia (-11) - Tennessee had a 24-13 lead on Pittsburgh heading into the 4th quarter on Monday night, and Zach Mettenberger was winning the Battle of the Bergers with a solid passing game. They needed a few sustained drives to put the game away, but they only ran seven more offensive plays as Pittsburgh took the lead and held it for good. If they can mold Mettenberger and Sankey into the offensive pieces they want, they can focus on giving Jurrell Casey some help on the defensive interior. Le'Veon Bell shredded them for 204 yards and they're averaging 143.5 rushing yards allowed. Speaking of getting shredded, Philly looked like a shitty Pac-12 defense against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack last week. The Sanchize looked okay, but the game was over before he had much to say about it. It was another frustrating day for Shady McCoy, who failed to get 100 yards on the ground or find the end zone. If he can't get healthy against Tennessee's front, I dunno, man. Eagles win, Titans with the points.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14) - So this is a huge mismatch on paper, obviously. But two years ago, the 2-14 Jags had one of their wins in Indy. They looked pretty good in Cincinnati three weeks ago. And the Colts just got dickslapped at home by the Patriots. Andrew Luck, your thoughts:



Thanks, Andy. Also don't let your mom cut your hair anymore. Gus Bradley is slowly improving his passing defense, keeping Romo, Dalton, and Tannehill in check in recent games. If he's going to remake Jacksonville in the mold of Seattle, he'll need to lean on his ability to draft and develop defensive backs. They don't seem to have any huge difference-makers right now, but five of their top DBs were 2013 draft picks, so Bradley is probably just sorting out who to keep around. And it's not like the Legion of Boom was a thing right out of college either. Anyway, this might be a repeat of the 44-17 win for Indy we saw in week 3. Still, the Jags' improvement on defense and Indy's inability to run the ball concern me. Colts win, Jags with the points.

Cincinnati at Houston (-2) - With three wins over the last four weeks, Cincy is once again atop the AFC North. Better yet, Gio Bernard is back at practice, and Jeremy Hill has looked pretty damn good in his own right. A balanced attack is crucial to ease the burden on Andy Dalton, who's problem this season has been consistency. His overall numbers have been okay, but you just can't have games like he did in Indy or Cleland. So of course he lit up New Orleans for three touchdowns and a 97.8 QBR. Last week I said Houston would have a chance if JJ Watt played fullback or left tackle, but I'll settle for tight end. He now has two TD catches on the year, which is good for third on the team and more than Andre Johnson. At 5-5, can they make a playoff push? I thought Ryan Mallett would look overwhelmed in his first start, but he was remarkably steady. With Arian Foster due back soon, Houston is a dangerous team. If last week's Bengals team shows up, they should win easy. I just wouldn't bet real money on this game. Bengals in the upset.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-4.5) - The last time we saw New York, they escaped with a one-score win despite being +4 in the turnover battle. The Bills were trading field goals with Miami until a borderline intentional grounding call on Orton in the end zone, and they looked out of sorts after that. Buffalo has seen record snowfall this week, dumping up to 8 feet of snow in some parts with more expected through Friday. Luckily Sunday's forecast is in the 50s, but rain is expected and the field conditions should be really shitty. I would like under-39 even without the weather. Bills win, Jets with the points.

1:00pm EST, FOX

Detroit at New England (-7) - I didn't catch any of Detroit-Arizona last week, but reading about the game tells me they lost two close replay challenges that really affected the outcome of the game. Of course their offensive box score reads like a great big ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, so you can't blame the refs too much.



We are now witnessing full Gronk, which is terrifying. He's got 325 yards and 5 TDs the last three games, and the Pats have won six straight. Easier Jonas Gray joke: he's a Jonas brother, or Gray's Anatomy? For all the talk of Seattle and Kansas City's ongoing 12th man rivalry, New England is 13-0 in Foxboro over the last two seasons. Patriots win, Lions with the points.

Green Bay at Minnesota (+9.5) - Based on all the NFC teams I've seen this season, I think it's Green Bay's to lose. Arizona's offense worries me a lot, Seattle probably won't get home field in the playoffs, and Detroit hasn't been there before. Also I just miss archi's old sig:



They had their way with Philly, and unless they're looking ahead to New England next week, I don't see this being close. Minnesota picked up Ben Tate off waivers from Cleland, so they're still trying I guess. Both the Vikings and the fantasy community expected big things from Cordarrelle Patterson, but he hasn't been able to produce much of anything. Once Teddy Throwsevelt gets more comfortable in the offense, hopefully he can find targets down the field. As it stands, they have some bubble teams the last three weeks, so they could play a pretty big spoiler down the road. This week, Packers win and cover.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-5.5) - Lovie Smith returns to Chicago a winner, as Tampa embarrassed Washington in DC. I didn't really learn much other than Mike Evans is a Goddamned beast. I don't trust them against good defenses, but luckily they're playing the Bears this week. It took Chicago a little while to heat up against Minny, but Cutty came alive with 330 yards and 3 touchdowns. Like I said last week, they'd have to run the table to be in the playoff hunt, and their schedule is pretty rough. Still, scraping together 8 or 9 wins should keep Trestman and Cutler in town, and they can focus on the real problems this team has. Bears win and cover.

4:05pm EST, FOX

Arizona at Seattle (-6.5) - GAME OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK. Despite having football's best record, Arizona is 20th in yards per game and 23rd in offensive DVOA. They could lean on their defense a la the 2000 Ravens, but their unit isn't nearly as dominant as the Purple Murderers. So they'll need a bit more from Drew Stanton and Andre Ellington going forward. John Brown's emergence gives them three legit options in the passing game, so it's on Stanton to keep the chains moving. Seattle played a good game last week with 204 yards rushing and no turnovers but it wasn't enough to top KC. At 6-4 and outside of the playoffs right now, it'd be easy to hit the panic button, but there's really nothing "wrong" with Seattle. Sure, their passing game is weak, but that's how the team is built. I think Swaggy Pete gets a signature win in a nail-biter here. Seahawks win, Cardinals with the points.

St. Louis at San Diego (-4.5) - Jeff the Giant Slayer was at it again on Sunday, as the Rams picked off Peyton Manning twice and Tre Mason ran for 113 yards en route to a really solid win. In retrospect St. Louis's schedule is absolutely brutal, but at least they catch a two-week reprieve with Oakland and Washington after this week. As for the Chargers, they can shut them down much the same way they did the Broncos: take away the run, get pressure, and get off the field on 3rd down. San Diego struggled to beat Oakland, and even though Ryan Mathews returned the offense sputtered. They're one of four teams at 6-4 outside of the AFC playoffs right now, so they'll need to finish strong to make the dance. With the pressure on and St. Louis away from their dome, I expect Rivers to play well. Chargers win and cover.

4:25pm EST, CBS

Miami at Denver (-7) - Another of those 6-4 AFC teams, Miami is coming off a superb defensive performance against Buffalo. I'm not sure if St. Louis provided a road map for beating the Broncos or if Denver will come out pissed, but Miami at least has a chance to slow down their passing attack. It was a weird loss for Denver, who got almost nothing on the ground and failed to convert passing yards into points. It will be a chilly 36 degrees in Denver on Sunday, so you can also begin the "Manning sucks in the cold" talk. I was pretty confident in Denver getting back to the Super Bowl, and while they've improved a lot of defense, the offensive line has a lot of question marks. Maybe they just needed a wake-up call like they got in St. Louis, or maybe they're just not that good. But Angry Manning and my boy DEMARYIUS will get it done. Broncos win, Dolphins with the points.

Washington at San Francisco (-9) -



Maybe he thought the reporters couldn't see him? If only he could pull a Solid Snake routine on the field, maybe he would have enough time to make his reads. Everything is terrible with the Redskins passing game, from slow decisions by Bobby Trips to injuries all over the line. Several times against Tampa, the broadcasters would show Washington receivers winning battles and getting open, only to have Griffin hold the ball, check it down, scramble out of the pocket, or be flat on his back. God bless Alfred "The Butler" Morris, who keeps toiling away for this terrible team. After Washington gave away three 1st-round picks for RG3, I said it would be really hard to get that value back in one player. Then his rookie season happened, and I was a believer. Almost two years later, battling various injuries and being eaten alive in the DC media, I think he needs a change of scenery. But the team won't get those picks back. (St. Louis used those picks to trade down a bunch and also get Michael Brockers, Alec Ogletree, and Greg Robinson by the way.) San Fran picked off Eli Manning five times last week, but still only won by six points. They only got two field goals out of four red zone trips, and Vernon Davis is still struggling. You always feel like the Kaeper is going to break out one of these days, but the proof is in the pudding, and his flavor of pudding probably tastes like Axe body spray. Still, they're playing Washington, to no worries until next week. 49ers win, Redskins with the points.

8:30pm EST, NBC

Dallas at NY Giants (+3.5) - What an amazing prime time game!

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/0...lie-murphy.gif

Cowboys win and cover.


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24TH

Baltimore at New Orleans (-3.5) - Despite a 6-4 record, Baltimore is actually 3rd in weighted DVOA this season and is 57.5% to make the playoffs according to Football Outsiders. They only have one division game left, hosting Cleveland to close the season, so Pittsburgh or Cincy can still be a bit of a roadblock. But strong rankings on defense and special teams give them a strong base, and even their Flaccian offense is ranked 12th. New Orleans has dropped two straight at home and instead of the offense making up for having no defense, they're struggling to score points. They're still tied for the division lead, and if they want to honor of getting blown out by Dallas or Philly come playoff time, they really need to win at home. Unfortunately I think their window has closed. Ravens in the upset.

[Moss]

god damn that Gronk gif, lmao

like when he nearly killed the colts DB for talking shit to him, telling people he "threw him out of the club"

[Titanss]

reporting

[Chun Liroy]

Cowboys just got breg cursed.

[Bregor]

Take it to the bank.

[Headspace]

Belieland

[Krandor]

Visiting family in Arizona next month and just scored some tickets to the Seattle/Arizona game Christmas week.

I am assuming I will enjoy this December game more then Denver/NE last year.

[Adajer]

Bucs must beat bears.

[Krandor]

LeGarrette Blount back with the Pats after getting shitcanned by the Steelers.

[Dimmauk]

The Cutty vs McCown in who has the best hair battle will be tremendous.

[Cail]

Jets@Buffalo might not be happening, at least not Sunday...travel ban, so no practice and stadium not cleared yet

[tyven]

that's carazyyyyy

[Cail]

Colts+Cards tried to claim tate too, but cuz minny sucks they get him

[AidenCarby]

LeGarrette Blount back with the Pats after getting shitcanned by the Steelers.

This pleases me.

[Cail]

Mario Williams took his plow and went and plowed out the snow for Jim Kelly like a boss

[Cail]

Forget about Sun in Buffalo. Bills “will be hard pressed to get stadium ready for the next home game (Sun. Nov. 30 vs Browns)", per source.

Bills coaches are preparing with the belief that the game vs. Jets will be moved to Monday night in Detroit, Pittsburgh or Washington.

[Byrd]

Forget about Sun in Buffalo. Bills “will be hard pressed to get stadium ready for the next home game (Sun. Nov. 30 vs Browns)", per source.

Bills coaches are preparing with the belief that the game vs. Jets will be moved to Monday night in Detroit, Pittsburgh or Washington.

Toronto seems like the obvious choice. Did it get just as snowed in there?

[tyven]

i assume toronto got it just as bad since it is so close.

hope they play in Det. Watkins indoors vs that Jets secondary could be HILARIOUS

[Krandor]

Toronto didn't get it quite as bad as Buffalo but most areas touching the Great Lakes got reemed

[Bregor]

Colts+Cards tried to claim tate too, but cuz minny sucks they get him

Colts love their plodding former Browns RBs.