Shaper's Shawl Testing

[Buffy]

Hello all,

As I posted in the fishing thread, I finally got Shaper's Shawl on one of my accounts, and wanted to do side-by-side testing. The sample size is increasing and I hope to add to it further over time.

Methdology:

Spoiler: show

Two different characters on two different accounts, each one capped at same level.

Each character would start crafting at same time, on the same recipe. Why? This is mostly obvious.

It eliminates situational factors, like:

Day of the Week
Direction (both faced same direction for every synth)
Moon Phase (both started a new level at same time)
It has been speculated that different recipes have different skillup rates. I don't know if it has any merit or not, but by using the same recipe, it eliminates this possibility.
Staying withing 5 levels of known recipe cap in order to give both characters a chance to skill up off breaks.
(I don't believe in the direction stuff, but doing two characters at same time makes it easy to make the only variable the cape)

No NPC synth support on either character at any time.

Each character stopped once a level was complete to wait for other character to catch up.

Slightly Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Character "B" (No Cape)
670 .1 skillups in 2608 synths (25.69% skillup rate)

Character "C" (Cape)
670 .1 skillups in 2082 synths (32.18% skillup rate)

Cooking Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Pumpkin Soup:: 65 Cap & San d'Orian Tea:: 70 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
49 attempts to go 60 > 61
31 attempts to go 61 > 62
58 attempts to go 62 > 63
47 attempts to go 63 > 64
52 attempts to go 64 > 65
32 attempts to go 65 > 66
45 attempts to go 66 > 67
33 attempts to go 67 > 68
31 attempts to go 68 > 69
38 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 416

Character "C" (Cape)
30 attempts to go 60 > 61
40 attempts to go 61 > 62
21 attempts to go 62 > 63
25 attempts to go 63 > 64
50 attempts to go 64 > 65
33 attempts to go 65 > 66
31 attempts to go 66 > 67
38 attempts to go 67 > 68
31 attempts to go 68 > 69
40 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total synths: 339

Smithing Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Nodowa:: 66 Cap & Hien:: 70 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
60 > 61 Omitted due to being more then 5 from cap on recipe and skillups not possible off breaks.
41 attempts to go 61 > 62
49 attempts to go 62 > 63
53 attempts to go 63 > 64
48 attempts to go 64 > 65
48 attempts to go 65 > 66
30 attempts to go 66 > 67
32 attempts to go 67 > 68
24 attempts to go 68 > 69
82 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 407

Character "C" (Cape)
60 > 61 Omitted due to being more then 5 from cap on recipe and skillups not possible off breaks.
20 attempts to go 61 > 62
30 attempts to go 62 > 63
28 attempts to go 63 > 64
36 attempts to go 64 > 65
35 attempts to go 65 > 66
42 attempts to go 66 > 67
33 attempts to go 67 > 68
44 attempts to go 68 > 69
30 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total synths: 298

Alchemy Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Venom Dust:: 62 Cap, Venom Potion:: 68 Cap, & Paralysis Dust:: 72 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
57 attempts to go 60 > 61
37 attempts to go 61 > 62
62 > 63 Omitted due to being more then 5 from cap on recipe and skillups not possible off breaks.
33 attempts to go 63 > 64
18 attempts to go 64 > 65
40 attempts to go 65 > 66
36 attempts to go 66 > 67
41 attempts to go 67 > 68
18 attempts to go 68 > 69
27 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 307

Character "C" (Cape)
17 attempts to go 60 > 61
18 attempts to go 61 > 62
62 > 63 Omitted due to being more then 5 from cap on recipe and skillups not possible off breaks.
32 attempts to go 63 > 64
32 attempts to go 64 > 65
25 attempts to go 65 > 66
41 attempts to go 66 > 67
30 attempts to go 67 > 68
14 attempts to go 68 > 69
37 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 246

Woodworking Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Tarutaru Fishing Rod:: 65 Cap, Demon Arrow:: 69 Cap, & Ancient Lumber:: 72 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
33 attempts to go 60 > 61
45 attempts to go 61 > 62
54 attempts to go 62 > 63
32 attempts to go 63 > 64
25 attempts to go 64 > 65
35 attempts to go 65 > 66
30 attempts to go 66 > 67
22 attempts to go 67 > 68
35 attempts to go 68 > 69
34 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 345

Character "C" (Cape)
42 attempts to go 60 > 61
19 attempts to go 61 > 62
36 attempts to go 62 > 63
24 attempts to go 63 > 64
25 attempts to go 64 > 65
45 attempts to go 65 > 66
36 attempts to go 66 > 67
21 attempts to go 67 > 68
21 attempts to go 68 > 69
18 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 287

Bonecraft Specific results:

Spoiler: show

Demon Arrowhead:: 63 Cap (only did recipe to 61), Ladybug Ring:: 65 Cap, & Demon's Ring:: 70 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
50 attempts to go 60 > 61
34 attempts to go 61 > 62
45 attempts to go 62 > 63
33 attempts to go 63 > 64
28 attempts to go 64 > 65
36 attempts to go 65 > 66
26 attempts to go 66 > 67
42 attempts to go 67 > 68
31 attempts to go 68 > 69
26 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 351

Character "C" (Cape)
34 attempts to go 60 > 61
39 attempts to go 61 > 62
31 attempts to go 62 > 63
28 attempts to go 63 > 64
26 attempts to go 64 > 65
31 attempts to go 65 > 66
22 attempts to go 66 > 67
29 attempts to go 67 > 68
33 attempts to go 68 > 69
25 attempts to go 69 > 70
Total Synths: 298

Leathercraft specific results:

Spoiler: show

Tiger Leather:: 61 Cap, Battle Boots:: 66 Cap, & Coeurl Leather:: 71 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
32 attempts to go 60 > 61.
48 attempts to go 61 > 62.
63 attempts to go 62 > 63.
26 attempts to go 63 > 64.
Omitted due to forgetting to equip shawl on character "C".
46 attempts to go 65 > 66.
40 attempts to go 66 > 67.
62 attempts to go 67 > 68.
35 attempts to go 68 > 69.
37 attempts to go 69 > 70.
389 Total synths.


Character "C" (Cape)
31 attempts to go 60 > 61.
32 attempts to go 61 > 62.
33 attempts to go 62 > 63.
28 attempts to go 63 > 64.
Omitted due to forgetting to equip shawl.
42 attempts to go 65 > 66.
28 attempts to go 66 > 67.
44 attempts to go 67 > 68.
27 attempts to go 68 > 69.
37 attempts to go 69 > 70.
302 Total synths.

Goldsmithing specific results:

Spoiler: show

Platinum Sheet:: 64 Cap, Platinum Earring:: 68 Cap, & Platinum Ring:: 70 Cap

Character "B" (No Cape)
51 attempts to go 60 > 61.
79 attempts to go 61 > 62.
32 attempts to go 62 > 63.
41 attempts to go 63 > 64.
21 attempts to go 64 > 65.
30 attempts to go 65 > 66.
38 attempts to go 66 > 67.
42 attempts to go 67 > 68.
33 attempts to go 68 > 69.
26 attempts to go 69 > 70.
393 Total synths.


Character "C" (Cape)
58 attempts to go 60 > 61.
21 attempts to go 61 > 62.
25 attempts to go 62 > 63.
36 attempts to go 63 > 64.
44 attempts to go 64 > 65.
47 attempts to go 65 > 66.
22 attempts to go 66 > 67.
37 attempts to go 67 > 68.
22 attempts to go 68 > 69.
37 attempts to go 69 > 70.
312 Total synths.

tl;dr

Based on this sample size, the value of the cape ranges from marginal to good. Specifically it is directly related to how many Matsya it takes you to get the cape. Assuming a 500k/fish price point, and a 1% drop rate, it's a 50 million gil cape. For some crafts, like cooking, it won't be worthwhile. For others, like Gold, Smithing, and Bone, it might save you 50 million gil in one level after 106 or 107.

Final Thoughts: After nearly 5,000 total synths between two characters and five months after I started this project, I'm comfortable saying that the results of using the cape are definitive. This has been a very challenging project – the amount of time and effort involved in saving enough crafting materials to do 10 levels at a time over two characters was enormous, but very rewarding personally.

I would like to thank those that have sent me notes, either through BG, FFXIAH, or in-game, who in turn thanked me for my testing and efforts, it was nice to be noticed by those in the community. Also, I now have 175 Matsya sitting on a mule, so I guess I can go get my main character a Shaper's Shawl now.

edit #1: Edited 08/25/2012 to include 65 > 70 cooking testing. Also removed terminology specific to cooking, to allow for future testing in other crafts without being confusing. While doing this, I discovered a basic addition error from the first day of testing. Not the actual results, but how I added them. I fixed today.

edit #2: Edited 11/08/2012 to include 61 > 70 Smithing testing.

edit #3: Edited 11/23/2012 to include 60 > 70 Alchemy testing.

edit #4: Edited 11/26/2012 to include 60 > 70 Woodworking testing.

edit #5: Edited 12/02/2012 to include 60 > 70 Bonecraft testing.

edit #6: Edited 01/07/2012 to include 60 > 70 Leathercraft testing.

Edit #7: Edited 01/27/2012 to include 60 > 70 Goldsmithing testing.

p.s. I will be testing the effect of Kitron Macaron in similar fashion on my woodworking and bonecraft mules in the near future, as well as doing some testing on the differing effects of rusk(s), so look forward to that. However, it's going to be time for a break for a couple weeks to recharge before I get started on those.

[Septimus]

Very interesting and a good methodology. Are you going to continue to 70 with the test?

[Buffy]

Very interesting and a good methodology. Are you going to continue to 70 with the test?

The characters I used share several crafts at 60. Cooking, Leather, Gold, Smithing, Wood, Bone. I intend to do identical tests for both characters to cap all subs at 70. Hopefully this provides 1500-2000 synth as a source, which should give us a reasonable sample size.

[dasva]

I'm about to do some low lvl stuff since can't do higher since my main is fully capped and only 1 mule has anything besides cooking so that should help add to things

[cdgreg]

I look forward to your results, thanks for your efforts Buffy

[Taint]

Thanks for doing this.

The third influence would be skill up foods and whether it stacks or not.

[dasva]

Right now I'm doing 2 characters with food one with shawl one without. Just waiting till I get all the way to 70 on each to report. But so far to 27 shawl has won decently on each synth.

[Slycer]

Marginal improvement is all I would expect. When you're in the 100 to 110 range, a marginal improvement in skill up results translates to tens of millions of gil saved. 5% more skill ups is not too shabby at all. That being said, at the price people are buying Matsya for, the actual value of getting this cape seems questionable if 5% is the correct number.

[dasva]

Yeah I sold my 9 extras for 700k each. Still will kinda depend on the craft. Some are alot kinder than others to skillup

[ikariiiii]

honestly the value in shawl in most cases its not because of the gil saved by having the cape, but materials saved when skilling up, which are often times difficult to come by on AH.

[Damane]

Marginal improvement is all I would expect. When you're in the 100 to 110 range, a marginal improvement in skill up results translates to tens of millions of gil saved. 5% more skill ups is not too shabby at all. That being said, at the price people are buying Matsya for, the actual value of getting this cape seems questionable if 5% is the correct number.

that depends on the synth

smithing for example needs at least 2 Millions for 1 synth and those are the hexed legs and head, the body plays in another league with 3 Million per synth...

[dasva]

Also kinda depends on how lucky you are. My mule took 154 and given how fast they selling right now at 700k that's basically 100mil of fish . But then again there are those that bought 2 at 300k and got it. Hate my luck sometimes

[cdgreg]

honestly the value in shawl in most cases its not because of the gil saved by having the cape, but materials saved when skilling up, which are often times difficult to come by on AH.

This is the primary reason I wanted it so badly. It's not gil I'm short on, it's E squamas, I've been spamming VNM pixies on a daily basis for hours and it is making me want to tear my hair out.

[dasva]

So since I started vacation a bit earlier than expected figured I'd share my findings so far. I'm on phone so forgive the lack of formatting.

So for this test I took 2 characters 1 with shall 1 without next to each other at same time facing same direction just for all those superstituitious people usimg kitrons. Started at 3.0 and so far have gotten to 47.0. Both characters got 44.3 in skill ups getting there due to .2s right at the cap in case anyone sees the numbers not adding up.

With shall:
Synths: 443
+.1: 263
+.2: 90

Without:
synths: 559
+.1: 269
+.2: 87

So far looks like distibution between .1 and .2 are the same either way just much better rate with shall.

[Slycer]

Based on your data and the other guy's data above, it looks like it increases your skill up rate by about 20-25% of whatever it was before. Other guy went from 26% to 30%, yours goes from about 64% to 80%.

[Damane]

Based on your data and the other guy's data above, it looks like it increases your skill up rate by about 20-25% of whatever it was before. Other guy went from 26% to 30%, yours goes from about 64% to 80%.

I would wait for the OPs Data. No offense to you dasva, but I dont know how you are testing the cape, while the OP is testing it perfectly fine (same time, same synth just on 2 different chars 1 with 1 without).

[Byrthnoth]

He's doing it like this:

Right now I'm doing 2 characters with food one with shawl one without. Just waiting till I get all the way to 70 on each to report. But so far to 27 shawl has won decently on each synth.

Seems pretty legit to me. I'm A-OK with verification from multiple sources though. Fisherman have a financial interest in the outcome of this experiment.

[dasva]

Yeah I kinda said how I was... twice. Only more details I could put is which synths to what lvls (which I do have but was on phone and that's alot of typing I'll do it when I'm off vacation) and the superstition stuff like what day, direction, time of day stuff. But since they both started at same time that shouldn't be too big of a problem. Of course non shawl almost always finished later so if any of that stuff does matter I guess it could effect the exact amount difference.

Also not quoted by byrth since I didn't put it in the first post but both are using kitron macaroons and just in case both face same direction

[Taint]

I was lvling cooking last night. At lvl10 I did apple juice which is a lvl20 synth. With Shawl+Kitron. Watersday facing west. I went from 10.0to 14.8 with 100% skill up on success. (have SSs if they even matter)

[Buffy]

OP updated today to include 65 > 70 cooking results. Made some changes to terminology to be able to include data from different crafts in the future without it being confusing.

Sorry for the slow going on the testing, it's hard to clear that much room on two characters, load up on supplies, and then craft. It's time consuming as well. Bear with me, I'll get it all done eventually.