1 is more likely in my opinion. I've done some more soul pyres since I was trying to farm simulacrum pieces (still haven't seen one in a soul pyre...), and the times I got more that 100% it was in the other direction.
That being said, has anyone got anything less than 5%? I'm guessing it increases in 5% intervals (never got a number not divisable by 5), so I'm proposing the theory that it checks in 0.5 yalm increments, making the max 120% at 12 yalms. Therefor, if you get 30%, the correct spot is roughly 3 yalms away.
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