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  1. #1
    Smells like Onions
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
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    I figured out the secret to HQ!(not really)

    Not really,

    However me and a lsmate had a discussion earlier on leveling 100-110, and T0s in general. I claimed that doing 100 crafts at T0 would result in at least 1 hq, T0 being 1% hq rate, being almost "guaranteed" an hexed -1 if you skilled solely on hexed. He went on to say that its random and you can simply not HQ at all and being guaranteed one was stupid. I realized the error I had made and had fixed my statement that @ 100 synths of hexed you're likely to get an HQ, and if you didnt, the next 100 synths you would be ALMOST guaranteed an HQ, going on to say that the chances you don't hq after 100 synths on a T0 is possible, but not likely since we're working with probability.

    Tl;dr or didn't understand:

    Me: you must HQ eventually if you keep crafting a T0, because we're working with percentages and not randomnity, therefore an HQ is almost guaranteed after your first 100 synths of NQ.

    Him: HQ is random even though it's 1% T0 rate and saying that you are almost guaranteed is retarded. (We both called eachother retards for the record)

    So who is right?

    inb4 day/moon phase/weather/direction effects HQ.

  2. #2
    Shallow and Pedantic
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
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    5,034
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  3. #3
    An exploitable mess of a card game
    Join Date
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    Your friend is correct. Your error is known as the gambler's fallacy.

    Even though the probably of NQing in a row decreases as the number of trials within that row increases, the probably of each synth remains the same.

  4. #4
    The Syrup To Waffles's Waffle
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
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    I'd say that there are threads for this (http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/834...secret-cracked!), but are you actually asking how probability works..? Regardless, this doesn't need to continue.

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