Ukraine Protest

[Quicklet]

So the situation isn't as easy to solve as this, but shouldn't the US and EU be stepping up sanctions at this point, about five days after the agreement in Geneva, with zero signs of Russia de-escalating and in fact the opposite being the case? I heard someone from Congress who's traveling with Biden's delegation to Ukraine being interviewed on CNN earlier, and he was saying how he thinks Ukraine will turn the page if they can just get through the May 25th elections. What the hell makes him think Russia is going to allow those to take place without the same kind of interference that happened in Crimea? This is laughably bad foreign policy and it's sad and depressing to watch play out.

[Andalusian girls]

the issue with substantive sanctions is that certain member states of the E.U. are terrified of enacting them given how much their economies rely upon Russia's natural gas and oil exports, and while a determined American drive could possibly enforce a consensus among the squabbling Euros, as it did on the issue of Iran going nuclear, it's p clear Obama has little stomach to lead from the front as he wants his last few years in office to be defined by domestic affairs

and so with the U.S. unwilling to lead and the E.U. divided against itself it's a fair bet no one does anything unless further aggression by Putin causes enough international outrage that their hands are forced. ideally, that will not occur given how much Russia's economy has suffered even without serious international sanctions being enacted. the ruble has depreciated significantly since the seizure of the Crimea while investors have been unloading Russian assets as they fear further instability, and at least two nations in France and Japan have unilaterally cancelled business dealings with Russia and suspended credit lines.

with Putin though who knows how much hardship he is willing to put the country through to achieve his geopolitical aspirations of reestablishing Russian dominion over Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

[Quicklet]

Right, I agree with you that there is this short-term bind where the US really needs the EU to be willing to make the economic sacrifice to ensure that sanctions bite enough for Russia to care. It is the only meaningful action the western nations have if we're taking direct military action off the table (and every sane person agrees that this is the case unless we see a dramatic escalation far beyond even the worst scenario in Ukraine). What's disheartening is that gas and oil companies are courting Putin even in the middle of this blatant land grab.

The problem with waiting so long to enact the next round of sanctions is you lose proportionality. The last round was put in place after Russia annexed Crimea, but we haven't seen a new step in response to the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine. If you wait too long for Russia to get entrenched in the east (or move in their main forces), it gives Russia more leverage for keeping Crimea or additional sections of Ukraine should this eventually get resolved in some way.

I'm personally not optimistic about the short-term situation. I think Putin has decided it's strategically more important to have a long-term presence in Crimea, and now that he's pushing Ukraine away from wanting to have a cooperative relationship with Russia, his only options are to either install another Yanukovich by rigging the elections or to carve out a path along southern Ukraine to gain land access to Crimea. And if he's going to go through the trouble of going that far, he may as well go all the way to Transnistria while he's at it. I think what you're seeing with the lockdown on journalists in eastern Ukraine is a portent of an incoming ramp-up of the scale of the operation there.

[notorious bum]

Gotta love this U.S./NATO narrative. So fascinating.

[Cail]

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-bomber...143320553.html

[BaneTheBrawler]

glad to see we're not the only ones still flying cold war era strategic bombers

[Callisto]

Ukraine situation keeps getting worse and worst, it seemed for about a week like there'd be some stability and now it seems they're headed to outright civil war. Not sure if this is an for Russia or what.

[Waraji]

WWIII incoming? I don't want a draft ):

[Callisto]

Just be like me, I'm far too out of shape to be of any combat value

[Krandor]

You'd be surprised how low the standards are these days.

[Serra]

From what I've been hearing, May 9th (Victory Day) is the day to keep an eye on. Putin is big on historic dates, and May 9th is the day the Germans surrendered to the Russians, so if he's going to do anything, it'd be on that day.

Next date would be the election. Interestingly, parliament (Yanukovich's Parliament, that part of government didn't chance when he fled) has said that every region doesn't need to vote for the election to count. A number of the pro-Russian candidates have been saying they're not going to participate and there are naturally some concerns that the eastern parts of the country are not going to be in the best condition to participate, but essentially the government has said if you don't participate, sucks for you. Also, the US and Germany have said they'd be willing to use targeted sanctions if there's any hint that Russia interfered with the election -- namely energy sector which Germany had previously not been willing to use.

[BaneTheBrawler]

You'd be surprised how low the standards are these days.

until someone invents a shit cannon i think i'll be safe

[Aragon of Odin]

From what I've been hearing, May 9th (Victory Day) is the day to keep an eye on. Putin is big on historic dates, and May 9th is the day the Germans surrendered to the Russians, so if he's going to do anything, it'd be on that day.

Next date would be the election. Interestingly, parliament (Yanukovich's Parliament, that part of government didn't chance when he fled) has said that every region doesn't need to vote for the election to count. A number of the pro-Russian candidates have been saying they're not going to participate and there are naturally some concerns that the eastern parts of the country are not going to be in the best condition to participate, but essentially the government has said if you don't participate, sucks for you. Also, the US and Germany have said they'd be willing to use targeted sanctions if there's any hint that Russia interfered with the election -- namely energy sector which Germany had previously not been willing to use.

May 19th is Victoria Day, at least here it is anyways.

[Serra]

Again, it's the day the Germans surrendered during WWII:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_Day_%289_May%29

[Serra]

So elections over, and the chocolate guy won. The fact he owns a chocolate company was like the first thing I learned about him.. Anywhoo:

KIEV, UKRAINE — Ukraine handed chocolate tycoon Petro Poro­shenko a commanding victory in its presidential election Sunday, giving the pro-European billionaire a chance to resolve a conflict that has created the greatest tensions between the West and Russia since the Cold War.

Poroshenko immediately moved Sunday to paint himself as a conciliator, declaring that his first official act after inauguration would be to visit the heart of the separatist rebellion in the Donets Basin.

He has also said he wants to lead Ukraine to closer ties with the European Union.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...b39_story.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5389434.html
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/26/world/...kraine-crisis/

[Callisto]

hooray Ukraine confirmed for second country with democratically-elected chocolate guy

[Serra]

If he manages to reunite Ukraine, I feel they'll need a new national anthem:

[kuronosan]

Anyone else ever notice that the candy man just forks over tons of candy to those kids, but makes Charlie pay for his chocolate bars despite the fact that he's fucking broke?

The candy man is an asshole.

[ronin sparthos]

Or Charlie is a bootstrapper and he's rewarded in the end with a chocolate factory. See? American Dream bitches.

Now to slash pay on the oompa-loompas 15% and threaten to call ICE if they give him shit.

[Serra]

Anyone else ever notice that the candy man just forks over tons of candy to those kids, but makes Charlie pay for his chocolate bars despite the fact that he's fucking broke?

The candy man is an asshole.

Clearly the other kids can afford a membership in the candy man's "make it rain" program while Charlie cannot.