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Thread: Placebo Effect discussion     submit to reddit submit to twitter

  1. #1
    Old Merits
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    Placebo Effect discussion

    I grow weary of people constantly shouting 'Placebo effect! Placebo effect!' incorrectly.

    Placebo Effect: A placebo effect actually changes outcomes - it DOES make a difference.
    peeve: facing north is just a placebo effect - No! If it did not change the outcome it was not a placebo effect.

    Lookup sharpshooter fallacy - that's more geared towards a correct usage.
    I faced north and got an HQ! It's because I faced north I say! - Not strictly sharpshooter but a lot better than placebo effect.

  2. #2
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    There's also a well known psychological effect that if you pay more for something, or if it somehow costs you significantly, you're much more likely to think it's better than the cheaper alternative.

    Kinda wish I knew what that was called, but I suspect it's the reason why you see non tanking jobs swearing by NQ cerb mantles.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tordall View Post
    There's also a well known psychological effect that if you pay more for something, or if it somehow costs you significantly, you're much more likely to think it's better than the cheaper alternative.

    Kinda wish I knew what that was called, but I suspect it's the reason why you see non tanking jobs swearing by NQ cerb mantles.
    Naive?




    Anyway, placebo = superstition to me

    EDIT: i.e. how people think moving out the way before the mob swings at you matters....

    Or (at 75) some people swear by DEF/VIT

  4. #4
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    What you're complaining about is a type of confirmation bias, I think it's specifically a 'myside' bias.

    Post-purchase rationalization = What you paid more for _must_ be better.

  5. #5
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    What melees swear by Cerb Mantle +1 versus Foragers? I've seen only seen people use Cerb Mantle becuase of the extra enmity for cotanking or whatever. Not because they think that 2 less atk is better?

  6. #6
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    Cerb+1 has a benefit over foragers. As far as +str +atk back armor goes, it's the best and therefore should be expensive.

    However, there are a substantial number of drks & other melees with survivability issues that TP/WS in NQ cerbs, b/c they cost 1 mil instead of 450k.

    2 less atk + you pull hate more, but it has to be better b/c it cost more. That's the Post-purchase rationalization effect I'm complaining about.

    Another FFXI example of it are the people that won't WS with a warwolf belt b/c it's dirt-cheap and instead hang onto a potent belt for WS just b/c it cost more.

  7. #7
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    Ah - myside bias is what I'm looking for. Putting too much weight into data you like and little to nothing in data that goes against what you think.

  8. #8
    Relic Horn
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    If Charger Mantle looked like Cerb and Cerb like Charger..... everyone would wear charger :D

  9. #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Lyramion View Post
    If Charger Mantle looked like Cerb and Cerb like Charger..... everyone would wear charger :D
    If Cerberus dropped Charger people would wear it more lol

  10. #10
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    I wouldn't wear Charger or Cerb.

    I'd wear Forager's til I got a Cerb +1.


    Placebo: Sugar Pill, Imagined effect, Observational Error.

    From Dictionary.com:
    1. Medicine/Medical, Pharmacology.
    a. a substance having no pharmacological effect but given merely to satisfy a patient who supposes it to be a medicine.
    b. a substance having no pharmacological effect but administered as a control in testing experimentally or clinically the efficacy of a biologically active preparation.

    My good man, don't fuck with a human dictionary.

    A placebo is facing north when facing north has no effect.

  11. #11
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    Placebo effect, on the other hand, is when something that logically should have no effect actually does. It's a placebo, but there is no placebo effect, and any appearance to the contrary is going to be due to sample size issues.

    All that said, a lot of crafters get really glib pretending that all of these theories have long since been disproven when they haven't. My advice to crafters is always that it doesn't hurt to minimize the number of variables from synth to synth, and keep records, so that someday when someone does get around to disproving these theories there will be some data around to serve as a jumping off point.

  12. #12
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    Thanks Weeks- glad somebody knows Placebo is not the same as Placebo effect

    Placebo effect
    From Dictionary.com
    a reaction to a placebo manifested by a lessening of symptoms or the production of anticipated side effects.

    a reaction... manifested... production - hmmm sounds like things that actually happen because of the placebo

    I either just got whooshed or you proved why this thread needed to be started.

  13. #13
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    Placebo effect just proves the power of suggestion works good enough in cases to get an observable result. I don't see how this applies to FF.

    Expecting facing north to give better synthesis results because someone told you or you read it somewhere doesn't MAKE it better because you believe it.

    THF gets a kill shot and you get good drops. Placebo, not placebo effect. The THF kill shot didn't MAKE the drops good, kill shot is irrelevant towards TH, Just because you expected it to work and it DID doesn't actually prove anything.

  14. #14
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    A placebo effect happens because the people who took the placebo expected to feel better. Thus, they thought they did, but they clinicly did not.

    Facing north is a placebo effect if you expect it to have an effect, get a HQ, and then ascribe it to facing north.

  15. #15
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    I too am of the opinion that they are two different terms.

    "Placebo", and "Placebo effect". Placebo is the sugar pill itself, or the practice of facing north/THF kill-shot (/full moon). Placebo effect is the positive outcome that come as a result of the chemicals in the brain when the subject is happy. I'll admit though that the people tossing the term around would be better off using the term "Anecdotal".

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fwahm View Post
    A placebo effect happens because the people who took the placebo expected to feel better. Thus, they thought they did, but they clinicly did not.

    Facing north is a placebo effect if you expect it to have an effect, get a HQ, and then ascribe it to facing north.
    False, giving people placebos actually will have an affect on patient recovery. i.e. it actually does make a clinical difference. This is why a placebo, such as a sugar pill, is given when clinically testing new drugs -- it is almost certain that the drug will help people, but it needs to be determined if the affect is above the placebo effect level.

    Facing north and getting an HQ isn't a placebo effect, it's just the random chance of getting an HQ. However the recovery rates of patients with certain diseases who are not taking medicine is well known, and giving people a placebo will in fact increase their chances of recovery, simply because they think that it will. Thinking that facing north will increase your HQ chances, however, does not actually increase your HQ chance, therefore it is not a placebo effect.

  17. #17
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    Placebo Effect: A placebo effect actually changes outcomes - it DOES make a difference.
    Who said it has to make a difference on the crafting results. It will make the crafter feel in control of the situation

  18. #18
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    The current definition of the term "placebo effect" says it has to make a difference.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo...Placebo_effect

    Quote Originally Posted by Wikipedia
    An example of the placebo effect was when scientists tricked runners into thinking that they were drinking oxygenated water; thus making them perform better. In reality, the runners were drinking regular tap water. When they ran they even performed better because they thought what they were drinking would enhance their performance.

    The same goes for the "sugar pill." The patient assumed what they were taking would make them feel better, but in actuality they were tricking their bodies into getting better. Those are two good examples of a Placebo experiment.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tubbers View Post
    The current definition of the term "placebo effect" says it has to make a difference.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo...Placebo_effect
    LOL At Wiki = "current definition"

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tubbers View Post
    The current definition of the term "placebo effect" says it has to make a difference.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo...Placebo_effect
    LOL At Wiki = "current definition", you probably want a medical or psychological dictionary.

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