"The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century"

[algrensan]

this is my first post in general discussion so sorry if this is a repost or a block of boring text. i found this book review in the paper the other day and thought it seemed pretty interesting.



"The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century"

Forget the Chinese lessons. Rather, you'd better start brushing up on your Polish.

In his book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" (Doubleday), George Friedman predicts that Poland, Turkey, Japan and Mexico will become new world powers by the end of this century. We won't be worrying ourselves over Russia or China. And the war against militant Islamists that has been the primary focus of our country for the past eight years will become a distant memory.

All this may seem outlandish, especially in the current climate of a reawakened Russia, the economic boom in China and a military campaign that has spiraled out of control with no clear end in sight. But the author is no kook.

Friedman has had a long career in political theory - he taught political science for more than 20 years; has briefed the armed services on national defense issues; and founded the private global intelligence company Stratfor, which serves as a consultant to a number of Fortune 500 companies and foreign governments, and has been referred to as "the Shadow CIA."

So, apart from emerging new powers and the collapse of China and Russia, what else can we expect from this century?

Friedman predicts that the world's falling population figures and longer life expectancy are going to mean fiscal chaos for those born between 1970 and 1990. It could also mean that our country will be engaged in a fight to attract a declining global labor force.

Friedman also writes that we can expect our next global war to be against an allied Japan and Turkey. That's right: Japan and Turkey. He writes, "This war will be fought differently from any in history - with weapons that are today in the realm of science fiction."

Friedman's declaration that, through all the ups and downs of this century, the United States is and will remain the leading superpower in the world for at least the next 100 years is easier to believe. Nonetheless, it wouldn't hurt to invest in some Berlitz classes. -Ewa Beaujon

[Mojo]

I don't think Japan would ever go to war, at least not against the US. Interesting but somewhat outlandish.

[algrensan]

maybe japan's got something up their sleeve after hiroshima and nagasaki-like program our pcs, ps3s and wiis to explode like in "live free or die hard" or something.

a "star wars" between USA and Japan? sounds awesome!

[Kuya]

I seem to recall his name, but i can't quite place it, and i'm sure it has nothing to do with the surname Friedman.

[Maguspk]

what a joke.

[0ni0n]

Japan, Turkey and Mexico?

Japan has been in recession for the last 15 years, which are called the lost decade. As its economy finally recovered two years ago, it is now unfortunately heading right back to recession and potential deflation due to the global financial crisis triggered by the mortgage crisis in the US.

Not to mention over 35% of the Japanese population will retire before 2030 and given the negative annual birth rate of -2% since the beginning of this century, the country is gradually dying off. It's projected that the country's workforce will be reduced by at least 15% in the next few decades should the current trend persist.

Its conservative indigenous politic is further exacerbating the domestic demographic issues by refusing to embrace a welcoming immigration policy. Less than 5% of the population are foreigners or foreign-born. Not only there is no existing viable governmental policies to reverse this demographic spiral, but also there is no indication that there will be any suitable politicians to steer the country back on track. Case in point, There have been 3 administrations in the last 18 months. The deep seated traditional politic is too ingrained for any productive reform.

Turkey, while i do give credit to the current government for maintaining the country as a secular country, it is one of the largest Muslim countries in the world that institute sharia law. I am not sure how that will play out but one thing is sure that it will complicate the rise of Turkey even if the prediction were true.

Mexico? I am not even gonna start on Mexico. There are just too many issues the country has to overcome in order to get to where China, Brazil, Russia, and India are.

[Senoska]

Afraid south park was right, my weeaboo senses make me want to team up with Japan in cases like this.

[Chelly]

good thing im taking japanese now woo

if shit hits the fan and mexico really does become a power, through some miracle lul, im gonna go chill with my fellow chacas

[Mizango]

Mexico? You mean Texas? They have already tried to seceded multiple times and have failed miserably.

I can see it now! Chorizo in every skillet and a taqueria on every corner vato! Su sueño de Americano! Chechechechecheeeeeeee!

[Mizango]

I heard Charismatic say that once. True story.

[archibaldcrane]

So...he's predicting Japan will actually put together some semblance of a powerful military? Their own post-WWII constitution has completely neutered their current outward threat capability. It even explicitly states they can't use force to settle international disputes, much less declare war.

[Serif]

Mexico is going to overtake the US, duh...

Us honkies are supposed to be a minority in what 20-40 years?

[gt_killa]

maybe japan's got something up their sleeve after hiroshima and nagasaki-like program our pcs, ps3s and wiis to explode like in "live free or die hard" or something.

a "star wars" between USA and Japan? sounds awesome!

Chinpokomon!

[Mizango]

Mexico is going to overtake the US, duh...

Us honkies are supposed to be a minority in what 20-40 years?

Again, see Texas. You are being systematically raped out of the gene pool. Get your Zoot suits. wife beaters and your sizzurp ready.

The cholos are coming wey, the cholos are coming!

[Kuya]

I think the point a lot of people here seem to be missing is the 100 years part, which is also what makes me think this entire thing is moot until at least 50-60 years have passed.

100 years is a lot of time for shit to happen, and a lot of time for him to be very very wrong.

[Demosthenes11]

Afraid south park was right, my weeaboo senses make me want to team up with Japan in cases like this.

pathetic

[Chelly]

thats right ese

bah its gonna be southern cali all over again

well, mecca anyway

its like i grew up in mexico, but it was in the US wat

[0ni0n]

I think the point a lot of people here seem to be missing is the 100 years part, which is also what makes me think this entire thing is moot until at least 50-60 years have passed.

100 years is a lot of time for shit to happen, and a lot of time for him to be very very wrong.

True. Given the timeframe, anyone's guess is likely as good as the author.

[Mizango]

Afraid south park was right, my weeaboo senses make me want to team up with Japan in cases like this.

Kawai!!

ftfy

[melbufrauma]

We Texans dont like the Mex miz, because they all up in our shit, bringing their crime and whatnot here. Also all the rest i could see but Mexico is such a shithole it will never become a world power

[Kuya]

Wasn't Texas part of Mexico? Aren't there like still Mexicans who were originally there or were they chased out or something?

[Sol-Blackguy]

Mexico is going to overtake the US, duh...

Us honkies are supposed to be a minority in what 20-40 years?

With the exception of about 9 states you kind of are.

[Chelly]

in soviet russia, fence jumps over mexicans

[Mizango]

They are doing it from the inside out. You know, like a parasite.

Pro. Unfortunately I know all to well, my wife is originally from Texas. First place I have ever seen where some places have the Mexican flag and the Texas flag flying higher than the United States flag. Here I am thinking we in the Carolinas were fucked up for flying the confederate battle flags on out state capitals and buildings lol.

Seeing that in TX put that in perspective big time.

[melbufrauma]

Wasn't Texas part of Mexico? Aren't there like still Mexicans who were originally there or were they chased out or something?

They became Americans if they were here during the annexation, what I meant really are the illegals

[melbufrauma]

They are doing it from the inside out. You know, like a parasite.

Pro. Unfortunately I know all to well, my wife is originally from Texas. First place I have ever seen where some places have the Mexican flag and the Texas flag flying higher than the United States flag. Here I am thinking we in the Carolinas were fucked up for flying the confederate battle flags on out state capitals and buildings lol.

Seeing that in TX put that in perspective big time.

Ive never seen people fly mexican flag anywhere but that would disgust me, if you are so obsessed get the fuck back to the place you call a "Country" on the otherhand, the Texas flag is the only flag that can legally be as high as the US flag. True shit

[Chelly]

Ive never seen people fly mexican flag anywhere but that would disgust me, if you are so obsessed get the fuck back to the place you call a "Country" on the otherhand, the Texas flag is the only flag that can legally be as high as the US flag. True shit

why you be hatin?

lol its not THAT bad

corrupt gov sure
who doesnt : x

edit: then again there are a crapload of them that are pretty stupid with the whole thing lol
bunch of undocumented mexicans where i grew up and they drove like shit -.-
least they could do was drive well so they dont get caught lol

[algrensan]

found some related text at The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century | 1913 Intel. again, sorry for wall of text.

"In the middle of the century, other powers will emerge, countries that aren’t thought of as great powers today, but that I expect will become more powerful and assertive over the next few decades. Three stand out in particular. The first is Japan. It’s the second- largest economy in the world and the most vulnerable, being highly dependent on the importation of raw materials, since it has almost none of its own. With a history of militarism, Japan will not remain the marginal pacifistic power it has been. It cannot. Its own deep population problems and abhorrence of large- scale immigration will force it to look for new workers in other countries. Japan’s vulnerabilities, which I’ve written about in the past and which the Japanese have managed better than I’ve expected up until this point, in the end will force a shift in policy.

Then there is Turkey, currently the seventeenth-largest economy in the world. Historically, when a major Islamic empire has emerged, it has been dominated by the Turks. The Ottomans collapsed at the end of World war I, leaving modern Turkey in its wake. But Turkey is a stable platform in the midst of chaos. The Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Arab world to the south are all unstable. As Turkey’s power grows—and its economy and military are already the most powerful in the region—so will Turkish influence.

Finally there is Poland. Poland hasn’t been a great power since the sixteenth century. But it once was—and, I think, will be again. Two factors make this possible. First will be the decline of Germany. Its economy is large and still growing, but it has lost the dynamism it has had for two centuries. In addition, its population is going to fall dramatically in the next fifty years, further undermining its economic power. Second, as the Russians press on the Poles from the east, the Germans won’t have an appetite for a third war with Russia. The United States, however, will back Poland, providing it with massive economic and technical support. Wars—when your country isn’t destroyed—stimulate economic growth, and Poland will become the leading power in a coalition of states facing the Russians.

...What will be the more immediate result of a shrinking world population? Quite simply, in the first half of the century, the population bust will create a major labor shortage in advanced industrial countries. Today, developed countries see the problem as keeping immigrants out. Later in the first half of the twenty-first century, the problem will be persuading them to come. Countries will go so far as to pay people to move there. This will include the United States, which will be competing for increasingly scarce immigrants and will be doing everything it can to induce Mexicans to come to the United States—an ironic but inevitable shift.

These changes will lead to the final crisis of the twenty-first century. Mexico currently is the fifteenth-largest economy in the world. As the Europeans slip out, the Mexicans, like the Turks, will rise in the rankings until by the late twenty-first century they will be one of the major economic powers in the world. During the great migration north encouraged by the United States, the population balance in the old Mexican Cession (that is, the areas of the United States taken from Mexico in the nineteenth century) will shift dramatically until much of the region is predominantly Mexican."

[Kuya]

Illegals means undocumented immigrants, right? The word illegals sounds highly pejorative. I take it people in Texas really hate undocumented immigrants?

[Rhinox]

They became Americans if they were here during the annexation, what I meant really are the illegals

Bullshit. They were often discriminated against and were the 2nd highest number of people lynched besides Blacks in Texas. The main perpetrators of this injustice where the then extremely racist and now revered Texas Rangers. Before you makes a claim like you did learn to read sources outside of what the Texas historians tell you.