Salvage Drop III: No drop? Suck Less

[Xerlic]

I do realize that random drop rates are random and people will have more luck with certain zones than others and sure it's definitely possible to go on a long streak of no drops. I do feel for you guys considering Morrigan's Robe is a very good body piece for all the jobs that can use it and is definitely worth the pricetag unlike some of the other salvage bodies.

But AR has 8 35 dropping NMs in it, with QQTHs being half of those. I honestly never understood why AR has multiple copies of an NM giving you several chances at the same 35 (not that I'm complaining) and all other zones only have 1 barring BR's dumbshit rampart system. ZR only has 2 NMs total that can drop 35.

I'm not discounting your own experience, but just saying that it can go the other way, as well. I had a morrigan robe on my original char that got banned. Came back on another char and got another morrigan robe. When I was on Seraph for 3 mos, I was in an LS that had at least 10 robes, and saw 2 drop while I was there. Shortly after I left I heard that one of their leaders who recently got BLM 75 also got a robe. The Salvage group I now run on Unicorn had an empty wishlist for the robe when I joined. We got a new member who added it to her list and she got her robe within a month and a half.

Also, on topic:

http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/a...reyaGloves.jpg

Our group alternates Dekka and PK as long as people have Marduk Feet and Skadi Hands wishlisted. We're down to only our WHM having Marduk Feet listed and were looking forward to getting her feet so we can spam PK. New guy joins and wishlists Skadi Hands. The group gets all pissy because we now have 2 35s cockblocking spamming PK, but then the hands drop on our first Dekka/G1G run of the week, so new guy gets them on his third run with us. Back to square one and only needing Marduk Feet.

[Thorny]

Personal experience doesn't reflect droprates. On average, provided you can pop 6f(and I don't see why anyone would be unable to, shit's easy even with 4), morrigan's robe is the most common 35 in salvage by over a 50% margin. Jesus christ.

(Also, you can have my enlil's gambison raracakes, it's been sitting in my satchel for like a month because nobody wanted it.)

[Nozomi]

Personal experience doesn't reflect droprates. On average, provided you can pop 6f(and I don't see why anyone would be unable to, shit's easy even with 4), morrigan's robe is the most common 35 in salvage by over a 50% margin. Jesus christ.

(Also, you can have my enlil's gambison raracakes, it's been sitting in my satchel for like a month because nobody wanted it.)

Any group that can't pop 6f is either horribly retarded or completely um.. what's another word for retarded?

I'm sure you'd agree the rats were stingy before you got yours though.

[FailureMidgard]

But AR has 8 35 dropping NMs in it, with QQTHs being half of those. I honestly never understood why AR has multiple copies of an NM giving you several chances at the same 35 (not that I'm complaining) and all other zones only have 1 barring BR's dumbshit rampart system. ZR only has 2 NMs total that can drop 35.

You do realize that if SE wanted, they could still make Morri robe and say Morri feet have the exact same average # of drops per runs? And I'm not sure I've seen proof yet that it isn't that way. It's a pretty irrelevant statistic on how many NMs can drop 35s...

Personally, I think there are 4 copies of QQTH so it can inflate peoples 0/xx that they so love to "brag" about so they can get some online sympathy. It's so amazing when people claim 0/80 on swift belt, as a side note.

[Thorny]

Stingy? Yea, I went 1/216 on mine. It's called a statistical outliar. The other 5 robes I've seen were all <30 between each other.. /4 rats = ~7.5 runs. Again, personal experience != actual droprate. During the time I was doing AR every day for my robe, I went 1/44 on marduk hands.. then got 2 more the next 2 days. I saw enough of every AR drop that I capped for the zone off of just freelots before I got my robe.

I'm sure I'll catch shit for this, but wiki has it reported as 4.3% droprate with over a thousand recorded kills. This means you'll get an average of .172 coats per run. If you don't want to count multiple drops, look at it as 1 - (.957^4) or 16.2% droprate. It's not a rare piece by any standards, sorry. It's low droprate creates a high standard deviation, but that doesn't imply rarity..

[Nozomi]

Stingy? Yea, I went 1/216 on mine. It's called a statistical outliar. The other 5 robes I've seen were all <30 between each other.. /4 rats = ~7.5 runs. Again, personal experience != actual droprate. During the time I was doing AR every day for my robe, I went 1/44 on marduk hands.. then got 2 more the next 2 days. I saw enough of every AR drop that I capped for the zone off of just freelots before I got my robe.

I'm sure I'll catch shit for this, but wiki has it reported as 4.3% droprate with over a thousand recorded kills. This means you'll get an average of .172 coats per run. If you don't want to count multiple drops, look at it as 1 - (.957^4) or 16.2% droprate. It's not a rare piece by any standards, sorry. It's low droprate creates a high standard deviation, but that doesn't imply rarity..

Basing it off of wiki? Really?

Also, quoting myself since you don't seem to understand:

My comment was more of a "in my experience" and myself lamenting over QQ drops rather than saying they actually do not drop which is impossible.

You are over analyzing.

[Thorny]

I already said I'd catch shit for quoting wiki, but unless you have another compounded droprate with a >1000 sample size, it's the best estimate I can get. It probably has a fair degree of response bias, but it's still not very far off what I've seen.

[Despain]

In all honesty salvage drops don't seem THAT bad to me, simply because on average I've seen at least 1 35 drop every other run I go to.

It could just be insane luck.

[Airenn]

Yeah, was nice dinging into morri on rdm lol

Calling Aurara out on this, because I'm 99.9% positive he had A Body before Morri and definitely did not ding his rdm into Morri. Sorry Rara

[Nozomi]

In all honesty salvage drops don't seem THAT bad to me, simply because on average I've seen at least 1 35 drop every other run I go to.

It could just be insane luck.

As I said, random is random. One group I was apart of got like 4-5 Hikazu Kabuto's in a row which some groups never see.

[thunderlips]

Calling Aurara out on this, because I'm 99.9% positive he had A Body before Morri and definitely did not ding his rdm into Morri. Sorry Rara

You do know there are 4 more pieces of morri he could have dinged into right? I dinged my gimp as fuck blm into 2 pieces of it.

Also fuck all you people saying ZR puts out, for the groups I have gone with ZR has had the worst drop rates, while we were lotting morri 35s to the ground/helpers since no one else in the group could hold them. Though xping your BLM in a macha's coat is a really fun way to piss off people you are burning with.

[Thorny]

'random is random' has no meaning. Anything 'random' has a probability and a standard deviation, from which you can conclude the chances of it happening.

Morri body is common, period. One 35 every other run is about average, unless you're Pchan.

[Nozomi]

'random is random' has no meaning. Anything 'random' has a probability and a standard deviation, from which you can conclude the chances of it happening.

Morri body is common, period. One 35 every other run is about average, unless you're Pchan.

No, not really. You were the one saying personal experience =/= averages, but this comment is based completely off of your own experience. You make it sound like salvage drops rain for the average player doing it.

[Meat]

bards, the anti thief

[Airenn]

You do know there are 4 more pieces of morri he could have dinged into right? I dinged my gimp as fuck blm into 2 pieces of it.

They were specifically talking about Morri Body, TL. Also, got you beat, dinged my BLM into 4 pieces of it.

[Thorny]

No, not really. You were the one saying personal experience =/= averages, but this comment is based completely off of your own experience. You make it sound like salvage drops rain for the average player doing it.

Arrapago:

4x ~8%(Chariot and 4f w.e)
2x ~6%(QQA)
4x ~4%(QQTH)

.92^4 * .94^2 * .96^4

53.7% chance of not getting a drop, which leaves a 46.3% chance of getting one or more drops

Zhayolm:

6x ~10%
.9^6
53.14% chance of not getting a drop, which leaves a 46.9% chance of getting one or more drops

SSR:

4-5 * 5%, depending on route
.95^4 = 81% chance of not getting a drop, which leaves a 19% chance of getting one or more
.95^5 = 77.3% chance of not getting a drop, which leaves a 22.7% chance of getting one or more

Bhaflau:

Not going to try to quantify as it'll end up all anecdotal and personal experience. Combining my experience with several other people, it seems to be close to .6-.7 pieces per run over time.

'A 35 about every other run' is vague, but I'd say anywhere between 40-60% chance of getting a 35 can be called 'about every other run'. If you aren't getting anywhere near that, you're either an outliar or not killing all potential NMs. 3 35s a week is NOT raining, people just think more of it because most groups are shit and don't go every day, and the ones that do don't post all their drops besides kote.

[Nozomi]

That just means it took you longer to level blm, a job everyone should have if they do any sort of end game.

[Nozomi]

lol, no, but sometimes you go 2-3 weeks without seeing shit. And then other times it pours, so throwing that out there is not a lie just the non-dropping probability rearing its head multiple times.

You must either be really lucky or over exaggerating.

[Airenn]

That just means it took you longer to level blm, a job everyone should have if they do any sort of end game.

Doubtful, considering I burned the fuck out of that shit. Also, I got 4/5 Morri within 4 months, so I got it all pretty quick. Not sure what TL has or how long it took him to get the morri.

[Thorny]

lol, no, but sometimes you go 2-3 weeks without seeing shit. And then other times it pours, so throwing that out there is not a lie just the non-dropping probability rearing its head multiple times.

You must either be really lucky or over exaggerating.

I have no idea what to say to you any more. Take a high school statistics class, then we can go into this more.