Super Bowl 50: The Fox Bowl or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Dab

[Bregor]

Last week:



Overall:

M/L: 168-98
ATS: 135-122-9



SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7TH

6:30pm EST, CBS

Carolina vs Denver (+6) - Well, here we are. The Super Bowl. First, let's take a quick look back and see which teams BG thought would be here:



Not surprising on the AFC side. New England is a safe bet every year, and Indy was popular because those idiots probably drafted Andrew Luck in fantasy or something. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are usually tough teams, and then you have a smattering of other long shots. The only one to actually pick Denver was Marootsoobutsu, so you should always be a gigantic homer, no exceptions. Still, I'm surprised no one else had the Broncos getting here, they were a dominant team in 2014-15 but people like predicting gloom and doom for Peyton Manning (and they were right, to an extent) so there you go.



Wow, BG fucking loves Green Bay. Despite the injury to Jordy Nelson, most of us thought Aaron Rodgers would just keep slingin' it all over the field, but no one really accounted for Eddie "FEASTMODE" Lacy's ratio of yards gained to calories consumed. Seattle makes sense like New England did, solid team with a top tier coach getting it done every season. I'm not sure if the Philly picks were serious, but Detroit and DALS I'm writing off as jokes/homer picks. Never be a gigantic homer, no exceptions.

As you may have noticed, not a single person picked the Carolina Panthers to make the Super Bowl (Gad get your fucking picks in next season). Eighteen people made picks, and nine of us had them winning the NFC South. But no one who didn't have them win the division even picked the Cats for a wild Card, and literally no one had them even making the NFC title game. Where's the love? Sure, they went 7-8-1 in 2014-15. Sure, DeAngelo Williams left as a free agent. Sure, they lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season. Sure, the leading wide receiver returning to the team was Jerricho Cotchery. Okay you know what, I understand why no one picked them to be in the Super Bowl.



But when a dynamic athlete enters their prime, it's a very special thing. Cam Newton had a season for the ages, finishing tied for 2nd in the league with 35 passing TDs, only throwing 10 interceptions, and rushing for another 10 TDs. Carolina scored the most points in the NFL, and with a steady hand leading the offense it took a tremendous amount of pressure off the defense. Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman, Thomas Davis, Kawann Short, and the rest of the Panthers defense formed an impressive unit that led the league in takeaways, finished 4th in rushing yards allowed, and tied for 1st in the league with fewest yards per pass attempt.



The team that tied Carolina in passing defense is none other than the Denver Broncos, who have a defensive unit the likes of which we haven't seen in a Super Bowl since, well, two years ago with Seattle. But you get my point. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware (when healthy) wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, Aqib Talib and Chris Harris lead a deep and tough secondary, and Malik Jackson, Sylvester Williams, and Derek Wolfe provide the big bodies up front. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips had the unit humming all season, and he had to because Peyton Manning and the Denver offense scuffled a lot this year. Manning was at or near his career lows in pretty much every passing category and missed six games with a host of injuries (neck, back, hip, leg, foot, pizza sponsorship, the works). Backup QB Brock Osweiler, aka THE BROCK LOBSTER, didn't fare much better, but he helped guide Denver to four wins sans forehead and clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, which turned out to be a huge fucking deal. But perhaps most importantly, it gave Manning time to heal, and time to plot his return...



I already mentioned Wade Phillips, but let's take a quick minute to talk about the rest of the coaches here. The obvious thing that stands out is both Super Bowl head coaches took over for this man:



John Fox is a decent enough football coach. He has a winning record in the regular season and the playoffs. He's effective at coaching both sides of the ball. He's succeeded with some truly terrible quarterbacks like Jake "CLUTCH" Delhomme and Tim Tebow. When Manning arrived in Denver and gave him an actual offense to work with, Fox went 38-10. But the lasting impression of his coaching tenures have been Delhomme's five picks against the Cardinals, the Jacoby Jones touchdown with under a minute to go, the ball sailing over Peyton's head as Seattle battered and bruised his team to a Super Bowl rout, and a lackluster effort against the Colts at Mile High. He's not one for making adjustments, and that's what you need to do to be successful in the playoffs.



For the Broncos, enter Gary Kubiak. Old Koob spent eight years with the Houston Texans, fielding above average teams and making the playoffs twice. The bottom fell out in 2013 because Matt Schaub happened, but Koob bounced back as Baltimore's offensive coordinator last season. His offense was 8th in the league in scoring, and he helped Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett to career highs in most relevant categories. He was just what Denver needed, and he brought all his old friends with him. Rick Dennison, the long-time Denver assistant who went to work for Koob in Houston and then Baltimore, is the offensive coordinator. Now, his first year back wasn't anything to write home about, but how much of that was the offensive line and Peyton's ineffectiveness? And wherever Gary Kubiak goes, Wade Phillips isn't far behind. The old boys now find themselves on the verge of doing something John Elway never did — win a Super Bowl without an MVP candidate at running back.



(Aw, you guys, Fernando Velasco looks so sad!)

On the other side, Ron Rivera has the luxury of two of the most dynamic players in the NFL. Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly give you a lot of breathing room for mistakes. Unfortunately a lot of those mistakes were caused by Newton, as his completion percentage, turnover frequency, and ability to find the end zone through the air were inconsistent at best. But the Panthers brass stuck with Rivera, and he stuck with Cam despite hit pieces and rumor mongering appearing in the media since he was drafted:

Why Carolin Panthers' New QB Is the Worst NFL Draft Pick Ever (2011)

Next Panthers G.M. has some big decisions to make on Newton (2012)

Carolina Panthers: Could a Bad 2013 Pave Way for Blockbuster Cam Newton Trade? (2013)

Should the Carolina Panthers Trade Cam Newton? (2014)

There's more, but most of the ones I'm finding in my short attention span searches are either fantasy-related or other teams' fan websites begging for Newton to be traded to their city. Anyway, the point is Cam has been at the center of this storm since he was drafted, and even though the Panthers are much more than a one-man show, he deserves all the credit he's currently enjoying for their 17-1 season. Helping Ron and Cam with the offense is Mike Shula, he of the vacated wins at Alabama (roll tide y'all). He's coached to his personnel, and went run-heavy with Cam, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart in the past. This year, he opened up the passing attack a bit more, and Cam rewarded him with outstanding results. Defensively, Sean McDermott worked with Rivera in Philly, and after he left for Carolina the Eagles' defense went in the tank. (Remember Juan Castillo's WIDE NINE? What a month that was for football.) While not as experienced as the Denver coaching staff, Carolina's trio has proved themselves worthy with the work they've done this season.



So how will the game play out? Will Manning and Denver completely pancake like they did two years ago? Will Carolina be able to move the ball against the best defense they've faced all season? The Cats beat the Seahawks in Seattle during the regular season, but that was before Russell Wilson went all super saiyan on the league. Still, it might offer a clue as to how things could go. Seattle was up 20-7 midway through the 3rd quarter, but three touchdown drives of 80 yards put Carolina on top for good. The last drive only took 1:48 and ended with a TD pass to Greg Olsen, who might actually be the best tight end in the game but isn't a gigantic meathead doofus in a major market so he gets zero national media attention. In the playoffs, Carolina shredded Seattle for 31 1st half points, the curbstomped another good defense in Arizona. Who was the leading receiver for the Cats in both games? You guessed it, Greg Olsen. Denver's secondary is great against outside receivers but has given up some plays to the tight end this season. I see Olsen having a monster game here.



Denver's offense has not looked crisp in the postseason. They squeaked by Pittsburgh and New England, and my boy Demaryius Thomas only has 52 yards receiving in those two games. Thomas and his mother Katina Smith were at the center of this year's feel-good story of the playoffs (or another THANKS OBAMA moment if you're a heartless moron) but his performance on the field really needs to pick up if Denver is going to have any shot at winning this game. Denver's commitment to the run game is respectable (33 attempts against Pittsburgh, 30 against New England) but I don't see them getting anywhere against Carolina's defense. Throwing on running downs and misdirection will be essential, and it'll take lots of audibles and OMAHAs for Manning to pull it off.

But he won't. I'm going with Carolina in a surprisingly close game. The opening line settled at CAR-4.5 at most places (link) but action moved it up to CAR-6. That seems really high to me, and I think a lot of sharps are going to pummel DEN+6 while they can (some books are already down to 5.5). The over/under of 45.5 seems about right too, with two great defenses on display. Lots of prop-type stuff can be found here but I'll stay away from those in the thread.

Carolina 24, Denver 20 (DEN+6, under 45.5)

[tyven]

PFT Commenter asked Greg Olsen about the 7th floor crew, more specifically Greg's third leg. Fucking incredible. PFTC is the most important person in media and we must protect him at all costs

skip to 42 seconds



deadspin primer for those that don't know about the 7th floor crew and how Greg Olsen will put his dick in your ear http://deadspin.com/remember-when-gr...ium=socialflow

[tyven]

Bregor the OP is very long so I will not read it, i am wondering if you addressed the fact that Josh Norman is the first homosexual to play in the superbowl and if you think he will come out and be an inspiration or remain closeted

[Bregor]

Keeklee is adorable

Bregor the OP is very long so I will not read it, i am wondering if you addressed the fact that Josh Norman is the first homosexual to play in the superbowl and if you think he will come out and be an inspiration or remain closeted

That's what the off-season thread is for

[Krandor]

The offseason thread is for Deflategate 2 : Electric Boogaloo and Billy Vegas signing with the Cowboys.

[Moss]

good OP, but I am going to cherrypick complain your comment about Olsen being the best TE. He is not better than Gronk, lol

[Moss]

PFT Commenter asked Greg Olsen about the 7th floor crew, more specifically Greg's third leg. Fucking incredible. PFTC is the most important person in media and we must protect him at all costs

skip to 42 seconds



deadspin primer for those that don't know about the 7th floor crew and how Greg Olsen will put his dick in your ear http://deadspin.com/remember-when-gr...ium=socialflow

amazing

[Melena]

Madden predicts a 24-20 Carolina wins, Bregor predicts Carolina 24-20 win. Coincidence?

[notorious bum]

I predict a close game as well, but if I wanted to make a gutsy gambling call it would be that Cam Newton will cause someone on the Bronco's DLine to get injured and the Panthers will cause Manning to gain the most experience with the feel of that new sod(on his ass).

[kisada]

close game. broncos win.

[Mertron]

I'm not sure if the Philly picks were serious

how dare you

Denver 23 Carolina 17

I am basing this on Vegas never losing money

[6souls]

Best thing about this is the MST3K pregame marathon on the local (maybe national?) PBS station.

[Boyiee]

I'm not betting the spread this year, but I am taking the under... but just barely. Think the game is gonna squeak in around 42-44 points. I was thinking something like 18-24/17-23/20-24 Carolina but I'm not confident enough to bet it since I just smell something fishy with a 6point superbowl spread and manningface.

I am however, all over these prop bets.

National Anthem length is always my favorite.

[Bregor]

I am basing this on Vegas never losing money

http://time.com/money/3692693/super-...-seattle-loss/

Patriots win, Vegas loses

Patriots lose, Vegas loses

Contract the Patriots

[Krandor]

My favorites I've seen this year is the length of time we'll see Cam Newton smiling during the broadcast and what color Beyoncé's shoes will be.

Edit : or taking the long odds whether there will be an earthquake during the game. Also Left Shark making an appearance is 15/1 odds.

[Boyiee]

Also there's too many commercials of Cam.

[Rhyis.]

Also there's too many commercials of Cam.

Seals the deal right there. Bet the farm on Peyton.

[Marootsoobutsu]

Going full homer. Denver 30, Carolina 17. FULL HOMER!

[Byrd]

Going full homer. Denver 30, Carolina 17. FULL HOMER!

Worked for me. I picked the Seahawks to go to the Super Bowl the last two years. I didn't this year. Look what happened... it's all my fault for not having faith in my team!

Homer away.

[Headspace]

PFTC is a god damn national treasure


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