went 4-2 ATS last week because gambling on nfc east teams was apparently not the correct strategy. i deserve this
anywho,
Bengals (+3.5) vs Titans: the titans are getting healthy with Henry coming back and gave guys like julio and brown a little extra rest with the bye, plus they are the one seed playing at home, so things look good for them.
the titans also lost to the jets
the titans D is still not very good, and i think burrow and the bengals offense is gonna score in this game. the titans will too, but i think they have so many pieces that may be out of sync from injury/rest where they will make the extra mistake(s) that keep this game close. #1 seeds lose around 25% of the time in their first game the last few seasons, and im pulling the trigger here. Bengals +3.5, and I think they win outright.
Packers (-5.5) vs 49ers: the other #1 seed I feel better about because of their qb being in full fuck everyone mode, the extra rest, lambeau being more of a homefield advantage, them also getting healthy (i do wonder how their guys coming back will play also though), and jimmy g being a little gimpy. if the 49ers are going to win this game it’s going to be by mauling the packers with the run like they’ve done in previous playoffs (with deebo making plays too). But I won’t be going against the packers in lambeau in their first playoff game at least. I’ll have the packers winning and covering (I do like the under here though)
Rams (+3) vs Bucs: stop what you’re doing and take a look at the offenses the rams have played this year, especially late. ill wait.
k so they’ve played probably 3 good offenses all year. the cowboys in week one, the rams in week 3 (they scored 34 in a win), and the bills towards the end of the year. they played a gimpy saints team twice, the panthers twice, the falcons twice, and the nfc east. they also played the rest of the afc east (jets pats dolphins). im not saying their defense is bad, but i don’t think they’re near as good as people make them out to be; they almost lost to said jets team late in the year. yeah yeah never count out touchdown tom, but fuck it, I think stafford cupp and obj get it done here. Rams +3 and win outright. i am worried about Donald/Miller et all getting flagged for touching tom inappropriately
Chiefs (-1.5) vs Bills: i had a whole writeup here about how if both teams play their “A game” on both sides of the ball i like the bills. then i deleted it because i am dumb. my assumption is the bills will not play their best possible game on the road, that andy and mahomes will get just enough done to win, and we’ll see a couple random plays of mahomes scrambling for his life then making bullshit throws down the middle of the field to kelce/hill. my heart says the bills but my heart is old and dead. Chiefs win and cover