Guild item pricing patterns and cycles

[Syntex]

I want to make a note that after camping the woodworking guild for elm logs that I have noticed a pattern in the pricing of the guilds items.

Now this was done on a mule both times so the fame level has been the same which might affect prices but from what I can tell there is about a 3 day cycle for prices for each guild and everyday the price will either go up or down depending on what item it is, and if a low cost item thats very cheap(like copper ore or arrowood lumber) the price might not change at all.

I have been camping the sandy Woodworking guild for the past few days and every time I would look for elm log the price would change, it started around 8k+ and every hour(in-game day) it went down about 200-500gil until now it was and its 2nd possible lowest price, 16xx with firesday(the guild holiday) being next and then afterwards will probably shoot back up to 8k again then slowly decay for the next cycle.


Now I am wondering if this applies to all items in the woodworking guild which I haven't bothered to look but will now start jotting those notes down to see if there is indeed a change across the board.

Also if this is the case for the woodworking guild it would be good to know and probably safe to assume, the same for all the guilds but I would really like to know if there is a pattern and pricing issue for the much higher in demand materials like zinc ore, iron ore, elm logs ect that would give us a heads up to know we can save a lot of time and/or money by buying from the guild.

Now since this requires you to check once and hour pretty much every hour in a row its very demanding for 1 person to get 3 days worth of reports so I am going to ask if some of the crafters could post there findings on here about the pricing of the guild(s) they use to see if we can establish a type of pattern to it all.

I would have to say to keep the results somewhat consistent that it has the be logged as 3 consecutive days(no guild holiday inbetween), same mule/character, what their current fame level is(and that it doesn't change between checks) and that you list all items and their prices.

I know this might be a little demanding but if we do work out a spreadsheet with the prices then it would be an amazing resource for any and all crafters to work with and help save some gil along the way.

[mackerel]

You're missing something.
Each day, a guild adds a certain number of each item to its stock, then determines the day's prices based on the number of each item in stock. When elm log prices jump, it's because many elm logs were purchased on the previous day and there are few logs in stock. When elm log prices decline, few or no elm logs were purchased on the previous day.
The cycles you are noticing are not predictable based on day of the week or game time. Low guild prices depend entirely on other people not buying the item for hours at a time. Prices drop to minimum, somebody buys out all the stock, next day you see max price.

[Syntex]

You're missing something.
Each day, a guild adds a certain number of each item to its stock, then determines the day's prices based on the number of each item in stock. When elm log prices jump, it's because many elm logs were purchased on the previous day and there are few logs in stock. When elm log prices decline, few or no elm logs were purchased on the previous day.
The cycles you are noticing are not predictable based on day of the week or game time. Low guild prices depend entirely on other people not buying the item for hours at a time. Prices drop to minimum, somebody buys out all the stock, next day you see max price.

That would make sense that no one has bought them for a while, I buy 100+ and it shoots right back up its high price the previous day.

EDIT: What about the appearance of Zinc ore? I don't know anyone who sells it to the guild but it pops up every so often.

[mackerel]

That would make sense that no one has bought them for a while, I buy 100+ and it shoots right back up its high price the previous day.

EDIT: What about the appearance of Zinc ore? I don't know anyone who sells it to the guild but it pops up every so often.

You don't get a message when someone else buys or sells items at the guild.

[Syntex]

You don't get a message when someone else buys or sells items at the guild.

I know but sometimes crafting at the goldsmithers guild at 4am checking to see if zinc ore is for sale and there is none, the very next ingame day there is some and no one has entered the guild, where did it come from?