BCS

[Byrd]

There's a bunch of topics popping up about various specific college football games, I thought I'd throw one out there about the general BCS so as to avoid the general clutter in the other topics, which focus on the more specific games.

Likely BCS Bids as of Monday, November 13:

Big 10 Champ (OSU/Mich)
Pac 10 Champ (Cal/USC)
SEC Champ (Florida/Arkansas)
Big 12 Champ (Texas/Nebraska)
ACC Champ (GT/WF/UM)
Big East Champ (Rutgers/WVU/Louisville)

At large candidates (4 will be chosen), in rough order of probability:
OSU/Mich loser (99.9% guranteed)
Notre Dame (barring losses to Army & USC, guaranteed)
Boise State (guaranteed if they beat Utah State & Nevada)
SEC 2nd place (either SEC title game loser or LSU)
USC (if they lose to Cal)
Wisconsin
Big East 2nd place (if 1 loss)

http://msn.foxsports.com/id/6163830_37_1.pdf has a very nice .pdf file showing the complete BCS standings.

Flame on.

[archibaldcrane]

To update this a little:

Notre Dame actually gets an automatic BCS bid as long as they finish in the BCS top 8. If they lose to USC however, it's doubtful they will - in which case they'll be in the at-large pool.

Boise State gets an automatic bid as long as their BCS ranking either 12 or better, or is higher than one of the top 6 major conferences' highest - right now Wake Forest is the lowest "leader" with a BCS ranking of 16.

Now remember, there are 5 BCS games this year for the first time - the BCS Championship game is held at one of the 4 bowl stadiums, but is played a week later (Jan. 8th I believe).

Therefore we're looking at:

BCS Championship Game: UM/OSU winner vs. whoever ends up in that #2 spot (I think it will be USC if they win out, since they play Notre Dame and Cal in the next 3 weeks and are currently #3)

Other 4 BCS bowls: (8 spots total)

SEC Champ (Florida/Arkansas)
Big 12 Champ (Texas/Nebraska)
ACC Champ (GT/WF/UM)
Big East Champ (Rutgers/WVU/Louisville)

Will get automatic bids. Boise State will also get an automatic bid if they win out (one loss should put them out of the top 12 and lower than the ACC Champ, therefore out of contention). Notre Dame gets an automatic bid only if they stay in the top 8, but with a loss to USC that won't happen.

Let's assume that USC wins out and Boise State wins out.

That will leave 3 at-large bids. One will for sure go to the OSU/UM loser - I don't think anyone argues this (and they will probably go to the Rose Bowl) That leaves two left. They can go to:

2-loss Notre dame (losses to USC and Michigan - very quality, but 0 wins vs. currently ranked teams - only ranked team it beat was Penn State who hasn't been ranked since week 4) However it is Notre Dame and the name alone carries a ton of clout for a bid.

Arkansas or Florida: Arkansas plays LSU to end the regular season. Win or lose they'll still win the SEC West and play Florida for the SEC championship. If Arkansas loses both games they'll be 3-loss and out of the BCS running.

2-loss Arkansas - beating LSU, losing to Florida (losses to Florida and USC - very high quality, wins over Tennessee and Auburn and LSU- very nice) The school however doesn't carry much clout for it's name alone, and will in this scenario have lost it's last game of the season, albeit vs. a very quality opponent.
-or-
2-loss Florida losing to Arkansas in the SEC championship (losses to Auburn and Arkansas - very high quality, wins over Tennessee and LSU - nice) The school name carries quite alot of clout, and they will be ranked #4 in the BCS until a loss - would almost for sure be the highest ranked BCS school with 2 losses.

1-loss Wisconsin (loss to Michigan, no particularly quality wins) Will have the 2nd highest BCS ranking of the at-large teams (probably #6 behind OSU/Michigan loser)

Best case scenario for Wisconsin - USC wins out or loses out (losing to Notre Dame means Notre Dame gets an automatic bid, losing to Cal means Cal gets a huge boost as a 2-loss team and USC becomes a monster 2-loss team as well, unless USC loses both, which would probably knock them out of the BCS, guarantee a slot for Notre Dame, and Cal would probably be out in the cold [Cal is at a very slight #15 in the BCS right now])

-and-

Arkansas loses to LSU and then to Florida - Would eliminate Arkansas but make LSU a threat as a 2-loss team, but not playing even in the SEC championship would hurt them.

What a mess. You're probably right, Wisconsin is going to get fucked. Michigan beating OSU will help them, esp. in the computers (which already like them) although the computers are pretty meaningless unless you're trying to be in the top 2.

However, one thing that is funny:

1. Ohio State (either I'll lose or Michigan will)

2. Michigan (See above)

3. USC (I can beat Notre Dame and lose to Cal)

4. Florida (I can lose to Arkansas in the SEC championship)

5. Notre Dame (I can lose to USC)

6. Rutgers (I'll either lose or WVA will)

7. Arkansas (I can lose to LSU before beating Florida)

8. West Virginia (I'll either lose or Rutgers will)

9. Wisconsin

The 8 teams above wisconsin in the BCS right now all PLAY EACH OTHER in the next 3 weeks. It's possible that 6 of the 8 teams can all lose to a quality, top 15 opponent in that time (everyone but the UM/OSU winner and the WVA/Rutgers winner). This is going to get more complicated before it gets clearer.

[Avvesione]

The 8 teams above wisconsin in the BCS right now all PLAY EACH OTHER in the next 3 weeks. It's possible that 6 of the 8 teams can all lose to a quality, top 15 opponent in that time (everyone but the UM/OSU winner and the WVA/Rutgers winner). This is going to get more complicated before it gets clearer.

Yeah, and does it piss anyone else that the National Championship Bowl is on Jan 8th, one week after all the good bowls are played?

That and there are 2 bowls between the BCS bowls and the National Championship Bowl? That really boils my blood and I hope they put them back on like December 20th where they belong.

[Byrd]

The 8 teams above wisconsin in the BCS right now all PLAY EACH OTHER in the next 3 weeks. It's possible that 6 of the 8 teams can all lose to a quality, top 15 opponent in that time (everyone but the UM/OSU winner and the WVA/Rutgers winner). This is going to get more complicated before it gets clearer.

As long as the BCS comes out of it with some conference really, really pissed off and someone hurting, I'll be happy.

What a mess. You're probably right, Wisconsin is going to get fucked.

The BCS has also expressed a real resistance to having three teams from one conference in the BCS, as well. That might be different with 10 teams, but I dunno. There are clauses in the BCS rules that say a team which finishes No. 3 is automatically in the BCS unless an at-large team from the same conference is already in the national title game. That kind of thing does not bode well for the Badgers.

Yeah, and does it piss anyone else that the National Championship Bowl is on Jan 8th, one week after all the good bowls are played?

If you have a game a week after the previous bowls, it should be a playoff involving teams that played on Jan 1. I'm OK with a game on Jan 2 if all the others were played on Jan 1.
I personally detest the fact that there is as much as 46 days between the OSU-Michigan game and the national championship game. It's hard for teams to maintain focus if there is that long between games, it produces some sloppy football. I'd rather see a well-played national championship game.

That and there are 2 bowls between the BCS bowls and the National Championship Bowl? That really boils my blood and I hope they put them back on like December 20th where they belong.

Are you telling me you're not looking forward to Cincinatti vs. W. Michigan in the International Bowl on Jan 6 or Tulsa v. Ohio in the GMAC Bowl on Jan 7?

Yeah, me either.

[Avvesione]

Are you telling me you're not looking forward to Cincinatti vs. W. Michigan in the International Bowl on Jan 6 or Tulsa v. Ohio in the GMAC Bowl on Jan 7?

Yeah, me either.

Well, on January 6th and 7th, I'll probably be doing nothing so I'll watch them, but those bowls belong in the days leading up to Christmas

I honestly wish we had like one bowl on the 22nd and 23rd, two on the 24th, one on the 25th, one on the 27th, 3 on the 28th, 4 on the 29th, 4 on the 30th, 4 on the 31st, 8 on the 1st (including Rose and Fiesta) and then Orange and Sugar on the 2nd and the national championship on the 3rd. (that's 32 bowls so that's the right amount)

[edgarfigaro]

The 8 teams above wisconsin in the BCS right now all PLAY EACH OTHER in the next 3 weeks. It's possible that 6 of the 8 teams can all lose to a quality, top 15 opponent in that time (everyone but the UM/OSU winner and the WVA/Rutgers winner). This is going to get more complicated before it gets clearer.

As long as the BCS comes out of it with some conference really, really pissed off and someone hurting, I'll be happy.

This quote is so sexy I want to make babies with it.

[Kabar]

As long as the BCS comes out of it with some conference really, really pissed off and someone hurting, I'll be happy.

As long as it is Boise St., A team that's played only one quality game, ill be happy.

[Mizango]

lollusc.













Gators.

[sheezow]

lol gators.. are you kidding.













Hogs are gonna stomp em

[Mizango]

lies I tell you, lies!!1

[Cleveland]

This may be the only time in history where the LOSER of the OSU/MICHIGAN goes to the Rose Bowl lmao.