Last week:
M/L: 5-8
ATS: 3-9-1
Overall:
M/L: 34-27
ATS: 27-33-1
Fuck this gay NFL. My wins were MIA-4, DET-2, TB+7.5, and PHI pushed. Fuck everything. Lucky that in the pick'em group, Byrd set it up to drop the lowest week, so no harm there.
Bye Week: Miami, Oakland
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2ND
8:25pm EDT, CBS / NFL Network
Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5) - So, that Theodore Edmond Bridgewater II is a pretty good quarterback, huh? Now I know I've hyped Breaking Madden here before, but last week's episode (link) was more informative than comedic. People want Teddy B to play as a dual threat pretty much because he is black, but in truth he's a pocket passer with good escapability and a God-awful rusher. He just doesn't do designed runs, period. Think of a shorter, blacker Big Ben who's not a total scab of a human being. Of course Bridgewater did run for a TD against Atlanta's defense, but honestly I'm pretty sure most of us could do the same. What was great about Teddy B last week was his efficiency, going 19-for-30 for 317 yards and no picks. Sure, he didn't throw for a touchdown, but he executed drives to get into the red zone, where Asiata simply Bald Bull'd his way across the goal line. Teddy also didn't take any sacks, which again speaks to his pocket presence. Green Bay found similar offensive success against the Fightin' Cutties, even though it was all the passing game and not the 2.8 yards per carry from Ed Lacy. (Seriously, never draft Alabama running backs. Shaun Alexander was the exception that proves the rule.) But as long as Rodgers, Nelson, and Cobb are producing, who cares? Outside of the shitburger they laid in Detroit, I think it's been exactly the kind of season I expected from Green Bay. Their defense might not win them many games, and playing against Bad Cutty will make any unit look good, but facing a rookie QB at home shouldn't be too much trouble. Over-48 looks pretty good to me since I think Minnesota scores enough to make it interesting. Packers win, Vikings with the points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5TH
1:00pm EDT, CBS
Cleveland at Tennessee (-2) - Cleland is coming off a bye, and Ben Tate is back to thwart all you Terrance West owners out there. But there's not much else to report from the Dawg Pound. Expect disappointment, losses, and another Josh Gordon arrest before Thanksgiving. Tennessee just got spanked by the best quarterback second-best neckbeard in the league. Honestly how did the Titans beat KC at Arrowhead? Jake Locker is trying to return from his wrist injury, but his uncertain status means most books aren't listing this game yet. Where's the Charlie Whitehurst love?!?! There are bad teams that are hilarious to watch, like Oakland and Washington, and then there are bad teams that are boring. These are two such teams. Cleland is 29th in the league at rush defense (153.7 yards allowed per game) so maybe even Shonn Greene can have a decent afternoon. Also take the under, no matter what it is. Edit: It's 44. UNDER. Titans win and cover.
Houston at Dallas (-6.5) - The 3-1 Houston Texans at the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys is not a thing I thought we'd see this (or any) season. In truth, maybe I should have given the Texans a little more credit. Their early schedule has been Charmin soft, Ryan FitzMAGIC! is a competent quarterback with a stellar beard, and JJ Watt is the best football player on the planet. They have some tough games coming up, but they also have Tennessee twice, Jacksonville twice, and Cleland. Playoffs? JJMVP? I wouldn't bet against it. While Houston is riding the best defensive performance so far, Dallas is enjoying the best offensive weapon in the league in DeMarco Murray. This is surely a plan that will last all sixteen games and into the playof—haha hahaha hahaHAHAHAHA oh man. Is anyone but me talking about Rolando McClain stepping right into the starting lineup for the Cowboys defense? He's battling a groin injury, but talk about your reclamation project. Remember when Xajii was saying it was a low-risk, high-reward flyer when the Ravens signed him last year, and I agreed with him, and we were both laughed out of the room? WELL WHO'S LAUGHING NOW? Well, no one, until Dallas's eventual collapse. I think it starts this week, and we see WEEDEN in this game after Watt pulls a Sabin-like Suplex on Romo. Texans in the upset.
Baltimore at Indianapolis (-3.5) - Señor Steve "Smitty" Smith Senior has been a revelation in Ballmurr, and trails only Jordy Nelson and JULIO in receiving yards this season. His presence has really transform the Ravens offense from the incredibly bland Cam Cameron plays of yesteryear to a vertical passing game that favors Flacco's strong if not always accurate arm. If he can consitently find Torrey Smith in addition to Smitty, they should be able to put up plenty of points on Indy. I honestly don't know what to think of the Colts. They lost two close games to good teams, and smashed two terrible teams. This will be a good test for them, and they have the advantage of being at home. But I'm still not buying Andrew Luck, who I'm just now realizing looks like Andy from Parks and Rec:
BURT MACKLIN, QUARTERBACK, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS. (And yes I know they had an episode where Andy actually caught a touchdown from Luck. Shut up.) Ravens in the upset.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+6.5) - TRAP GAME ALERT Pittsburgh is the top choice in ESPN's Eliminator this week, sitting at 19.8%. Sure, the simple strategy of fading the Jags is usually a winning one, but this is the same Steelers team that let Tampa Bay hang around and then lost on to a last-minute TD from Mike fucking Glennon. If I'm going purely based on this week, Green Bay and New Orleans are the better Eliminator choices, and maybe even San Diego or Detroit. Although if you do plan on using the Steelers, this game or next week at Cleland are your best bets. On the plus side, Antonio Brown continues to impress, and Jacksonville is dead last in passing defense. Since halftime of week 1, Jacksonville has been outscored 152-41. Okay, maybe this is a decent Eliminator pick. Steelers win and cover.
1:00pm EDT, FOX
Chicago at Carolina (-2.5) - The Fightin' Cutties looked like a genuine force in the NFC after beating the 49ers in San Fran, and then survived a let-down game against the Jets. But there are really no excuses for letting the Packers waltz into Soldier Field and do what they did, especially in the 2nd half. Two interceptions and the abject failure of the defense really took the shine off their early season optimism. Speaking of early season optimism, Carolina looked good at 2-0 and a stingy defense, but they've allowed 75 points the last two weeks against the offensive juggernauts of the AFC North. I've gotta think Cutty bounces back, but I also think we haven't seen Cam's best game yet. I would not put actual money on this game, but since the people demand answers (lol) I'll take the Bears in the upset.
St. Louis at Philadelphia (-7) - Two weeks ago, I highlighted Austin Davis's hot start and his chemistry with Brian Quick. Then they hooked up for a 51-yard touchdown as the Rams stretched their lead over Dallas and looked en route to a win before it all went to pot. But Davis is leading the NFL in completion percentage and has enough weapons to keep Philly's secondary busy. Coming off a bye, I think they'll score some points. Chip Kelly and his Eagles offense failed to score an offensive TD in San Fran, and recently Shady McCoy has looked slower than Steven Wright telling a joke about a Trent Richardson toss sweep. He says he's healthy, Chip says he's healthy, and if they're telling the truth then this is lining up to be a vintage Shady afternoon. But I'm not convinced. Need more MAH DICK ERTZ please, Chip. Over-48 looks so good it might be a trap, but I'm not giving up on DRAM TRAM and like I said I think the Rams can score here. Eagles win, Rams with the points.
Atlanta at NY Giants (-4) - Speaking of O/U's, this is the highest of the week at 50.5, and I'm not exactly sure why. Sure, the Falcons can put up points, but they're basically starting some walk-ons along the offensive line. If they can keep Matt Ryan upright and uninjured here it will be a minor miracle. Even worse is the rebuilt defense, ranked 31st in the league by allowing almost 430 yards per game. Meanwhile the Giants have quietly rattled off two straight dominant wins, and Eli has a 6-1 TD-to-INT ratio and only two sacks taken the last two weeks. If he's actually up for running Ben McAdoo's West Coast offense, it wouldn't surprise me if New York just keeps on winning. Still, Atlanta's big play ability should make it interesting. Giants win, Falcons with the points.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-10) - Let's not kid ourselves that the Bucs are a decent team. They got incredibly lucky, as a normal NFL punt from Pittsburgh would have sealed their 0-4 start last week. They have two huge targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, and they're using them like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Throw the ball downfield, assholes! So the Saints are third in the league in passing and everything's all good, right? Well, not exactly. They're 15th in points per game (tied with Washington!) and need to find someone other than King Graham to get into the end zone. This is only their second home game, but they failed to light it up in week 3 against the Vikes. They'll get it done here. Saints win and cover.
Buffalo at Detroit (-7) -
THE ORTONING HAS BEGUN
Detroit's defense has been the biggest surprise of the season for me so far, espeically shutting down Green Bay. They haven't had any Watt-like individual stand-outs (Suh has been good but nothing special) but they're playing well as a unit and I don't think they're challenged here too much. Detroit is pretty good, at home, and facing Kyle Orton. Lions win and cover.
4:05pm EDT, FOX
Arizona at Denver (-7.5) - Arizona is one of two undefeateds left (Cincy the other, and both were on a bye last week) but on paper they're not doing anything special. The bad news is Carson Palmer's weird nerve injury thing still hasn't resolved itself, so it seems like we get more Drew Stanton. YOU'RE WELCOME, ARVIN.
Standing by this. Broncos win and cover.
4:25pm EDT, CBS
Kansas City at San Francisco (-5.5) -
http://s3.amazonaws.com/br-cdn/temp_...kool-aid-2.gif
vs.
I know there's no good or bad in the NFL, but how can you not root for the Walrus against Grumpy Jim? The biggest non-story this week is Deion Sanders "reporting" some people in San Fran's organization want Harbaugh gone. (link) I doubt this is true, since winning cures all manner of ills and he's 38-13-1 with the 49ers with three straight playoff appearances (and a 5-3 playoff record to boot). This game opened at SF-7.5 and moved down to -6 after KC took care of Shit-Ass Tom Bardy. I think that's still being generous to San Fran, who haven't exactly looked like a dominant team so far. 49ers win, Chiefs with the points.
NY Jets at San Diego (-6.5) - So Buffalo has pulled the plug on EJ Manuel, and Geno Smith might be next. His last two games, both at home, have been pretty brutal as he's posted a 20.5 and 12.3 QBR. At 1-3, Smith, Rex Ryan, and Marty Mornhinweg are wasting exceptional performances by the defense. The Wilkerson/Richardson duo already has five sacks and three tackles for loss, and the unit as a whole is 3rd in the league in yardage allowed. They'll need that unit to shine as Phil Rivers is 2nd in the league with an 82.5 QBR and has three receivers playing very well in Royal, Floyd, and Allen. Combine all that with making the Jets fly cross country, and this should be an easy victory. Chargers win and cover.
8:30pm EDT, NBC
Cincinnati at New England (+1) - This will be a really tough game to predict. There will be plenty of people saying the Patriots are done, stick a fork in them. There will be plenty of people saying that you simply cannot count out Touchdown Tom. (Speaking of, when a reporter asked about "evaluating the quarterback position" we were treated to belichik.gif):
Forget about the Pats for a second. Cincinnati is one of the best and most well-rounded teams in the league. This was shaping up to be a good match-up for them before what happened on Monday night, and now it looks like a potential bloodbath. Get in now before the line explodes. Bengals win and cover.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6TH
Seattle at Washington (+7) - WARNING: I am obligated to inform you that Seattle is a completely different team on the road than they are at home. That being said, they're coming off a bye, and LOLOLOL KIRK COUSINS
Seahawks win and cover.