Ruminations on King pop times

[Seyrr]

I had an interesting thought today in regards to 21-24 hour pop NMs such as Fafnir and Behemoth. I've never actually camped any of these (though I have wandered through to wave to friends, and gotten bored in a matter of 5-10 minutes), so I'm hoping that people with experience might be able to contribute.

My knowledge of the mechanics of such NM pops is: Starting at the 21 hour mark, every half hour there is a short window of a minute or so where the NM may pop. For instance, if Behemoth was killed at midnight, then windows where he may pop are at 9 pm, 9:30 pm, 10 pm, and so on up until midnight.

My question is: Is the window in which the NM will pop determined ahead of time, or is it randomly determined in each window?

I have heard it suggested that GMs should monitor these spawns in order to prevent and punish unfair play, and I'm curious as to how feasible such an idea would be. If the spawn window is determined ahead of time, the GM would only have to be around at that window, instead of every half hour for three hours (though they could remain invisible so as to not clue people in.)

My thoughts: Suppose that it is randomly determined at the time of each window whether the NM will pop. There is a probability p that the NM will pop in a given window (I'm assuming p does not change until the last window, where the NM must pop if it has not already.)

Thus, the probability that our NM pops at:

Window 1: p
Window 2: p(1-p)

We can go further, but this is what I care about. Note that the probabilities of popping in Windows 1 and 2 cannot be equal unless p=1 or p=0. Since this obviously cannot be, we have one of two situations:

1. NMs are equally likely to pop in each window, which implies the pop time is determined far in advance.

2. NMs are more likely to pop in some windows than others, which implies that the pop time is determined as each window comes up.

So, I'm thinking that if I can gather lots of data about which windows various NMs pop in, I can determine if some windows are more likely than others, which would tell us which of these two situations it is.

That's my idea. Anyone who knows what they're talking about want to explain why I'm wrong? >.>;;[/i]

[Veli]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

[Pearlsea]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

Agreed 100%

[Not Kuno]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

Right answer! Circle gets the square.

[TsingTao]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

Could someone please ensure this exact text is added to each and every SE Q&A session until appropriate changes are made? Perfectly worded.

[Rocl]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

Right answer! Circle gets the square.

Was it the Whoopi Goldberg square though?

[Zalius]

i have an ingenius idea now, link soon

edit: idea failed

[divisortheory]

1. NMs are equally likely to pop in each window, which implies the pop time is determined far in advance.

2. NMs are more likely to pop in some windows than others, which implies that the pop time is determined as each window comes up.

The problem is that even if windows are determined on the fly, they can change the formula for each window in such a way that A(N) = A(M), where A(x) is the average number of pops for window x after a certain number of NM pops.

Theoretical Example: Suppose an NM has k total windows. Let P(j) be the probability that an NM will pop on window j if you are currently at that window. if P(j) = 1/(k-j+1), then over time the expected number of pops for all windows are equal, and the system is essentially equivalent to and indistinguishable from a system where the pop window was determined in advance using a random but uniform distribution.

Concrete Example: Fafnir has 7 windows.

Window 1 - (1/7) 14.29% chance to pop if this window is active
Window 2 - (1/6) 16.67% chance to pop if this window is active
Window 3 - (1/5) 20% chance to pop if this window is active
Window 4 - (1/4) 25% chance to pop if this window is active
Window 5 - (1/3) 33% chance to pop if this window is active
window 6 - (1/2) 50% chance to pop if this window is active
Window 7 - (1/1) 100% chance to pop if this window is active

Remember those are all independent of each other.

% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 1 - 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 2 - .1667*(1-.1429)% = 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 3 - .2*(1-.1429)*(1-.1667) = 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 4 - (similarly) = 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 5 - (similarly) = 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 6 - (similarly) = 14.29%
% of all Fafnirs that will pop during Window 7 - (similarly) = 14.29%

[Codernaut]

Divisortheory is correct. The chance that an NM will pop in a particular window goes up each time a window is passed (and does not appear to be pre-determined).

Otherwise there would be a small statistical chance that an NM would never pop. :-/

So technically you could argue that NM's are more likely to pop during certain windows, but, also, each window becomes more likely than the last.

[divisortheory]

Divisortheory is correct. The chance that an NM will pop in a particular window goes up each time a window is passed (and does not appear to be pre-determined).

Otherwise there would be a small statistical chance that an NM would never pop. :-/

Well, technically he said in the OP he was making the assumption that the last window was always 100% but that other windows were the same. The flaw is that you have to make sure you keep separate in your mind the independent chance that it will pop on window N assuming that window N is active, vs. the total % of times the NM will ever pop on window as opposed to other windows, because as demonstrated they are different.

[Suiram]

One thing I've always wondered, is let's say Nidhogg dies and the next day Fafnir pops, which goes unkilled for a week. Say it dies 7 days later, is the chance of Nid the next day equivalent to a day 2 or a day 8?

[Seyrr]

Veli, I agree. But as long as said system exists, I figure we might as well try to dissect it. If nothing else, it gives us new points to argue why the system should be changed (if we can find other flaws we hadn't previously noticed.)

Divisor, yeah, I had thought that might be a possibility too. Wasn't sure if it might be more annoying to code. That's one of the things I had been thinking about while trying to work through this, and other problems of game mechanics: how difficult would such a system be to make codewise? Would a reasonable programmer (yeah, SE programmers aren't reasonable, har har har) write it?

Just as an example, if the pop time was determined well in advance, the only time that makes sense to do it is at the ToD of the NM. Otherwise, you have a timer that's counting down to some time at which point the NM's pop time will be determined... and what's the point of that? It would have the same result, and this way you've just added another unnecessary timer, server-side, for each such NM. You've added work for no real reason. So I couldn't see the pop time being generated at any time other than ToD under such a system.

So that's the question we have to ask, isn't it? For a mathematician, writing a system like the one you described is pretty damn easy. From a code-monkey's perspective, is it worthwhile? Do you get something out of it that you can't get by doing it another way? I don't know enough about that... most of the CS courses I took were theory. >.> I can write decent algorithms, as long as you don't mind pseudocode!

And I have to ask... are you a math major or have a degree, maybe? Your general form and specific example made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. <3 I don't get to see this stuff as much lately.

[Khamsin]

One thing I've always wondered, is let's say Nidhogg dies and the next day Fafnir pops, which goes unkilled for a week. Say it dies 7 days later, is the chance of Nid the next day equivalent to a day 2 or a day 8?

I doubt even the first Fafnir to spawn, ever, went a week without being killed. But its an interesting question.

[WhiteCuirass]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

NM pops dont work anymore for people who want eq for free, whose LS are not as determined as the top LSs of the server. It's the same story on every server because that's the way people are, there are those who want to be the best and are willing to sacrifice time/effort and those who want it all for free, and will make up bullshit reasons like "pressing voke faster than the next man" or accuse others of botting instead of going there day after day after day to accomplish a goal that takes long-term committment.

yeah, keep believing that the top LSs all bot you fuckin lame pathetic queers. btw it's not a 1 minute window, it's like 1-2 seconds from the exact second of the ToD, every 30min 21-24 hrs. anyone with even a little bit of experience camping knows this.

you know what else?

A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man.

the top LSs of the server who are in aery, dominion sorrows every day have the most pimp eq for members but might have bad skills compared with sky/dynamis LSs. in terms of performance, gear hardly means shit in ffxi in case you didn't figure it out yet, the only exception is probably ridill. even d. ring or black belt hardly make a difference with another person wearing their suit of AF1 and AHable shit.

the only reason you people are so mad is because you are jealous, and want to have pimp looking eq. even willing to fuck up the entire system that pits the most committed LSs against the losers who go like once a week and keeps it all random for everyone so you have a random chance to pull and win eq that your god damn asses don't deserve. it's in your favor the way it is right now, but that's still not good enough for greedy loser ass dynamis/sky LS,

you want it all to be like sky and dynamis-- forced pop shit so you can farm it all or wait for cooldown times and try again and again. ffxi will be ruined because of you bozos and your complaints to the dev. team. if the dev team changes it, it will be to keep collecting money from your pitiful weak gil-purchasing asses, not to improve the system. keep staying jealous of people wearing Koenig Cuirass, Dalmatica, Crimson Scale Mail, Adaman Hauberk, Defending Ring, R I D I L L

Delay: 236. Damage Per Second (DPS): 10.17. TP Per Hit: 6.3%. Equipment Category: Weapons / Swords.
Effects for Ridill:. Occasionally attacks 2 to 3 times ...

LOL superior to all your god damn excaliburs and joyeuses you LOSERS!
HNM CAMPING LSs > ALL THE REST OF THE SERVER FOREVER.

:D Have a bad day

admin edit: now with less enter key

[Codernaut]

One thing I've always wondered, is let's say Nidhogg dies and the next day Fafnir pops, which goes unkilled for a week. Say it dies 7 days later, is the chance of Nid the next day equivalent to a day 2 or a day 8?

The world will never know, lol.

[Zalius]

double line spacing and

hitting enter too soon are

100% unfucking nessacery

it takes longer to convey

a point, and its just annoying

its not like you need margins so

mods can correct your post

[aurik]

As long as there is a window there will be a problem. Bahamut v2 or Assault is the way to go for all NMs. A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man. NM pops dont work anymore they are outdated and should be removed from the game.

NM pops dont work anymore for people who want eq for free, whose LS

are not as determined as the top LSs of the server. It's the same story

on every server because that's the way people are, there are those who

want to be the best and are willing to sacrifice time/effort and those who

want it all for free, and will make up bullshit reasons like "pressing voke

faster than the next man" or accuse others of botting instead of going

there day after day after day to accomplish a goal that takes long-term

committment. yeah, keep believing that the top LSs all bot you fuckin

lame pathetic queers.

btw it's not a 1 minute window, it's like 1-2 seconds from the exact second

of the ToD, every 30min 21-24 hrs. anyone with even a little bit of

experience camping knows this.

you know what else?

[quote:46fbb] A ls skill/gear shouldnt be determined by pressing voke faster than the next man.

the top LSs of the server who are in aery, dominion sorrows every day

have the most pimp eq for members but might have bad skills compared

with sky/dynamis LSs. in terms of performance, gear hardly means shit

in ffxi in case you didn't figure it out yet, the only exception is probably

ridill. even d. ring or black belt hardly make a difference with another

person wearing their suit of AF1 and AHable shit.

the only reason you people are so mad

is because you are jealous, and want to have pimp looking eq.

even willing to fuck up the entire system that pits the most committed

LSs against the losers who go like once a week and keeps it all random

for everyone so you have a random chance to pull and win eq that your

god damn asses don't deserve. it's in your favor the way it is right now,

but that's still not good enough for greedy loser ass dynamis/sky LS,

you want it all to be like sky and dynamis-- forced pop shit so you can

farm it all or wait for cooldown times and try again and again.

ffxi will be ruined because of you bozos and your complaints to the dev.

team. if the dev team changes it, it will be to keep collecting money from

your pitiful weak gil-purchasing asses, not to improve the system.

keep staying jealous of people wearing Koenig Cuirass, Dalmatica,

Crimson Scale Mail, Adaman Hauberk, Defending Ring, R I D I L L

Delay: 236. Damage Per Second (DPS): 10.17. TP Per Hit: 6.3%. Equipment Category: Weapons / Swords.
Effects for Ridill:. Occasionally attacks 2 to 3 times ...


LOL superior to all your god damn excaliburs and joyeuses you LOSERS!


HNM CAMPING LSs > ALL THE REST OF THE SERVER FOREVER.

:D Have a bad day[/quote:46fbb]

You need to learn

how to form paragraphs

instead of typing each new line

as seperate.

[Seyrr]

anyone with even a little bit of

experience camping knows this.

Not even going to dignify the rest of that with a response, but... I specifically said I didn't have experience camping, and that what I put up was what I knew about the subject. Did you have any point in mind when you said this, or did you want to add a couple more inches to your e-peen? I can send you some top-notch Viagra spams if you like.

[Zalius]

aurik cant handle me

[inafume]

LOL @ double space guy who thinks the current system for kings is good.