NFL Week 4: September Superbowl edition

[Moss]

I'll fuckin be there wearing my Kellen. Is that appropriate? its the only Browns jersey I have.

only if you are a fucking soldier

[Gadritan]

BEARS

Carolina at Chicago - Cuz Jerry Rice said so. And like, he's Jerry Rice.

[Plow]

raiders gonna win too, cuz jerry rice AND randy moss both played there


well, ok, rice played there, moss was on the team

[Bregor]

Last week
Pick: 9-7
ATS: 7-9

Overall
Pick: 29-19
ATS: 18-28-2

SUN, OCT 2

Detroit at Dallas (-1) - I honestly don't understand the treatment of Tony Romo, who is being praised on par with Chuck Norris and George Zimmer. Call me when you grow a kick-ass beard, Tony. First of all, 22-for-36, 0 TDs and 1 INT just isn't that impressive. And more importantly, if your injury is a bigger story than your performance, you shouldn't be on the fucking field. Detroit came out flat in Minny, but still clawed their way to a win. Lots of guys missed practice today, including Calvin, Fairley, and Vanden Bosch. Still, they're in better shape than Dallas, who will likely be without number one receiver* Miles Austin, along with the walking wounded on the field. Looking at Detroit's schedule, I'd say they split with Green Bay and Chicago, lose at New Orleans, and maybe one of San Diego or Atlanta. 12-4 Lions? I guarantee it. Lions on the road.

Carolina at Chicago (-7) - Chicago's got some things to work out along their offensive line, but otherwise I still believe they're a strong playoff team. And frankly I don't think the Panthers have the personnel to take advantage of that weakness the way Chicago's last two opponents have. Scam gets a mulligan for last week's game in a monsoon, but this is going to be his toughest challenge yet, and I think he turns the ball over a couple times. With some shorter fields, I'm looking for a big day from Forte at home here. BEARS win and cover.

Buffalo at Cincinnati (+3) - Last week I said, "With my ass firmly planted on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, this will be a good litmus test to see just how far they've come." Well, they've arrived. Fitz, the Amish Rifle, whatever you call him, he's the fucking man. And if you turn Brady over four times, there's someone looking out for you. I'm penciling Dalton down for 15 INTs. Bills win and cover.

Tennessee at Cleveland (-1) - The Titans are something of an oddity. I don't really think they're doing anything all that special, but they're 2-1 and Hasselbeck is playing his best football in years (which isn't saying much.) What stands out to me, they have two good wins at home, and one bad loss on the road. Raise your hand if you had Hee-Haw leading a scoring drive with three minutes left to lift a Hillis-less Browns team to a win over Miami's defense. Yeah, I thought so. The real star was Cleveland's defense (for a change) as they harassed Henne all day long. I think they turn up the heat again and get to 3-1 for the first time since 2001. My kingdom for a Kevin Johnson. Also, Tyche, it's Joe HADEN, douche. umad.jpg

Minnesota at Kansas City (+1.5) - Calling this the Toilet Bowl is an insult to the fine people at American Standard. How low has Kansas City's stock fallen? From 10-6 and playoffs, to home dogs to McFlab and the Vikes. They played San Diego tough, and they're at home, so I'll take the Chiefs.

Washington at St. Louis (+1.5) - Another puzzling home dog situation. Washington had a lot of momentum heading into Monday night, but a blocked FG, some unsexiness from Rexy, and a 3rd-and-21 choke job cost them dearly. How will the team bounce back? If the Redskins recent history is any indication, not well. Sticking with a theme, St. Louis was a sexy pick to win the division, but they're still looking for their first win. The talent is there, and if Bradford and SJack can get it going, there's still time. Last year, the Rams got off the schnide against the 'Skins with a convincing 30-16 home win. I'll take them to turn the trick again.

New Orleans at Jacksonville (+7.5) - The Saints are pretty banged up, but Breesus just keeps on rollin', pacing the NFC in yards and touchdowns. Not to mention that Ingram and Sproles also added rushing TDs last week, so you get the sense that the offense is coming together quite nicely. As for the Jags, it looks like MoJoDrew has a little left in the tank, but it won't nearly be enough to beat a quality team like New Orleans. Saints win and cover.

Pittsburgh at Houston (-4) - Much like the Bears, Pittsburgh has a playoff-caliber team, minus one offensive line. The defense almost cost them against the shell of what was once the Colts, although I've gotta believe Polamalu snags that handoff 9 times out of 10. If not for Buffalo, the Texans would be my "it" team in the AFC. How they hold up against the Steelers defense will be very telling. They're getting healthy, and I don't think there are any corners who can cover Andre Johnson. It'll be close, so I'll take Houston to win, Pittsburgh to cover.

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9) - Ugh. I was buying hard on the Eagles, and they took a huge steaming dump on the field last week. How is LeSean McCoy not getting 30+ touches a game? The dude's a beast. San Fran is the first place team no one's talking about (outside of this thread anyway) and their two wins have come against weaker opponents. If they can't get the running game going, it'll be a long day in Philly. Still, their defense and a few bad Vick moments should make this closer than that spread. Eagles win, 49ers cover.

NY Giants at Arizona (+1) - Manningham and Umenyiora both practiced today, and after an emotional win in Philly last week, things are looking up for the G-men. With the NFC East wide open, you get the sense that one of these teams is going to rattle off three or four wins in a row, and New York has the team and the schedule to do it. The Cardinals always seem to come up one play too short, with back-to-back bad losses to Washington and Seattle. I'm not sure if Beanie Wells will play here, but if he does, this could be a lot more interesting. Either way, I'll still take the Giants.

Atlanta at Seattle (+4.5) - You've gotta hand it do Seattle's defense last week, bottling up LFitz and getting a 2nd half shutout to preserve their first win. Still, I'm not buying them as a decent team just yet. Since Atlanta was able to get everything rolling against Philly two weeks ago, they should have no trouble here. I'll give them a pass for last week, since Tampa has a lot more fight in it than people think. Some old school offense should be in store; establish the run, set up the deep ball, Julio gets his first TD. Atlanta wins and covers.

Miami at San Diego (-7) - Apparently some of the odds makers didn't watch San Diego almost lose to the Goddamn Chiefs last week. Even though the calendar rolls over to October, the Bolts are still unpredictable as fuck. To make matters worse, Gates, Jackson and Floyd all didn't practice today. Speaking of unpredictable, I loved Miami's defense coming into last week, but they failed to sack Hee-Haw McCoy even once, and gave up key first downs in the fourth quarter. I could see this being a dogfight, or I could see Rivers hitting on all cylinders in a blowout. I'll hedge my bets and say San Diego wins, Miami covers.

New England at Oakland (+4) - How much does America love an underdog? I was downright giddy when Buffalo knocked off the big bad Belichicks last week. They exposed New England's weaknesses (pretty much anyone not named Brady or Welker) and might have provided a blue print for the rest of the league. Oakland is 8-5 since mid-October of last year, which is pretty impressive when you look at their schedule. McFadden is a horse, but I'm not all-in on their offense just yet. They were 0-for-8 in 3rd down conversions last week, which will have to improve if they expect to keep pace with the freshly shorn Brady. What I am buying is their ability to get to the quarterback, which will also have to be on point. Does Oakland have a perfect game in them? They'll need it if they want a win here. Either way, this will be a fun game to watch, but I'll say Patriots win, Raiders cover.

Denver at Green Bay (-13) - Will there be any bigger disparity this week than when Rodgers and Tebow exchange a handshake and/or bro-hug after this one? Packers win and cover.

NY Jets at Baltimore (-3) - Rex Ryan is a defensive genius, right? Then how come everyone and their brother is running all over the Jets? They gave up 171 and 2 to McFadden, 4.9 yards per carry to MoJoDrew, and Dallas, well, Dallas sucks. Ray Rice should have a monster day, but then again, Rex usually saves his best performances for prime time. Sanchez had a good game last week, superficially speaking, but Plaxico and Santonio were limited to four catches and 74 yards combined. Dump-offs to LaDanian and Keller won't work this week. Vegas thinks these teams are pretty evenly matched, since Baltimore is getting the token 3-points-at-home here, but the Ravens have shown me more thus far. Baltimore wins and covers.

MON, OCT 3

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10) - You worked out Brodie Croyle and didn't sign him? What the fuck is wrong with you, Indy? Tampa wins by 50.

[Demosthenes11]

what blueprint did buffalo provide? lol

"get lucky with 4 INT and then you MIGHT be able to sneak by them if you score 30+"

[Bregor]

what blueprint did buffalo provide? lol

"get lucky with 4 INT and then you MIGHT be able to sneak by them if you score 30+"

Pretty much, except for implying they were lucky to create turnovers.

[Plow]

injure gronk > triple welker > profit?

[Demosthenes11]

Pretty much, except for implying they were lucky to create turnovers.

tips straight into people's arms and getting 4 INT thrown from tom brady is very fucking lucky lol

Play that game again - how many INT do you think brady throws?

[archibaldcrane]

Cam Newton is going to be in for a surprise when he scrambles in Soldier field, dives and takes a sod spike to the eye socket.
http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/editorial_i...n_on_field.jpg
Soldier field is named that for a reason, niggas be gettin stabbed with spikes and shit.

[Gadritan]

tips straight into people's arms and getting 4 INT thrown from tom brady is very fucking lucky lol

Play that game again - how many INT do you think brady throws?

iirc only 1 was a tip.

Um, are you saying that if they played the game over he wouldn't throw 4 INTs?

[Tyche]

Buffalo took away the outside of the field.

[Demosthenes11]

iirc only 1 was a tip.

Um, are you saying that if they played the game over he wouldn't throw 4 INTs?

ITP: your iirc is better than someone that watches pats games several times. there were 2 tip INT

You are damn right that I'm saying that you play that game 50 more times and he will throw 4 INT only 1-2 more times

[archibaldcrane]

The two tips were because they were absolutely shitty thrown balls, making people reach way high or way behind. Hit a receiver in stride, you can't write off all tipped INTs if the passes are shit.

[Tyche]

I don't think it was a coincidence that Buffalo game planned (and said as much publicly) to take away the seams, and in doing so, forced Brady to play their game. That's not to say they wouldn't make adjustments in another game, but yeah, I'm going to say it, Bill got outcoached.

[Demosthenes11]

The two tips were because they were absolutely shitty thrown balls, making people reach way high or way behind. Hit a receiver in stride, you can't write off all tipped INTs if the passes are shit.

hi, you didn't watch the game. please proceed to shut the fuck up until you see the tips lol

neither was poorly thrown ball. one of his other INT was poorly thrown, and the other he shouldn't have thrown. The 2 tips were not his fault at all

[Bregor]

tips straight into people's arms and getting 4 INT thrown from tom brady is very fucking lucky lol

Play that game again - how many INT do you think brady throws?

Implying that INTs are the only way to turn the ball over. The Pats have lost only five fumbles total since the beginning of last season. Now who's lucky?

[Demosthenes11]

I don't think it was a coincidence that Buffalo game planned (and said as much publicly) to take away the seams, and in doing so, forced Brady to play their game. That's not to say they wouldn't make adjustments in another game, but yeah, I'm going to say it, Bill got outcoached.

wtf seams do the pats run besides the 2 TE seams up the middle? Their entire offense is in the middle of the field and maybe some really short passes to the outside or a 10 yard out or 2 to branch/ocho. They were missing one of the TEs, allowing the bills to focus attention to just gronk, who still caught a TD and had something like 90 yards receiving AND caught a seam or 2. The pats offense wasn't even slowed except for the INTs, which were the only difference in the game. The patriots scored 31 points lol

[Tyche]

It's a hell of a lot easier to play defense on 1/3rd of the field. How many catches did Branch + Ocho combine for in that game?

[Demosthenes11]

Implying that INTs are the only way to turn the ball over. The Pats have lost only five fumbles total since the beginning of last season. Now who's lucky?

What does this have to do with anything...

[Demosthenes11]

It's a hell of a lot easier to play defense on 1/3rd of the field. How many catches did Branch + Ocho combine for in that game?

2? brady overthrew branch 2x where he was open as well. We know ocho should have caught that TD as well. And considering welker wasn't being taken away or slowed at all, why not keep throwing to him? idk if you saw, but he was beasting.