I leave town for a week and a half, Christmas in Greensboro and Raleigh, and a funeral in Tampa. The Panthers had Brees go nuts on them, and the Bucs fired Raheem Morris. I must be bad luck. But on the bright side, Cam didn't get hurt, and the Bucs fired Raheem Morris. What else did I miss?
and
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Called it. But it's not just the Cowboys and Jets who pathetically missed the postseason. Oakland ruined my NFL fan fiction getting torched by RIVERS. Houston and Denver lost three straight to end the season, as did the Jets, but by virtue of previously good defenses and weak divisions, they back into wild card weekend. Andy Reid and Norv Turner somehow still have jobs. Happily for DA BEARS, Jerry Angelo and Mike Martz do not. The Colts lost for Luck RG3, the Browns tanked for Trent, and God only knows what St. Louis and Minnesota will do with their draft picks. Oh yeah, and the Pats, Packers and Saints are still really fucking good.
Last week
Pick: 10-6
ATS: 8-7-1
Overall
Pick: 166-90
ATS: 132-117-7
SATURDAY, JANUARY 7TH
4:30pm EST, NBC
Cincinnati at Houston (-3) - Hopes were high in Houston when T.J. Yates showed some initial promise, relieving Matt Leinart (lol) in a win in Jacksonville, and guiding them to quality wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati. In their three losses since, he has yet to throw a touchdown, their lone passing score coming from CLUTCH himself. So what offense shows up on Saturday? Having Andre Johnson back and close to being healthy should help. But quarterback isn't their only concern, as the once stout defense has given up some key 4th quarter drives. In the first playoff game for the franchise, and for Gary Kubiak as a head coach, I think the Texans come out nervous. Cincy came out nervous at home against Baltimore with a wild card spot on the line, down by 10 before their fourth offensive play. The Bengals are 1-6 against teams with winning records, that lone win coming in Tennessee way back in week 9. Oy. That's a little misleading though, they've had a tough schedule and played teams close all season. Meanwhile, Houston lost to fucking Indianapolis. Two things I look at in this one; which QB-to-WR tandem can I expect big plays from, and which defense do I trust more. It may be January but it's still Christmas Connection time in Cincy, and Houston is too banged up on defense to get big stops. Bengals in the upset.
8:00pm EST, NBC
Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5) - Detroit has been consistent for much of the season, putting up big offensive numbers against inferior competition, and sputtering against quality teams. But don't blame fat-faced phenom Matt Stafford for the loss to the fightin' Flynns last week, he came to play and did his part. At some point, whoever thought Eric Wright was a legitimate starting corner in this league should be fired, tarred, and feathered. N'awlins had the most consistently excellent offense possibly ever, and definitely since the '07 Patriots. Their loss opening night to Green Bay was typical of two great teams, but the Saints also lost at Tampa and St. Louis. Those aberrations were probably just a case of not showing up to play, and maybe a bit of road weariness. Neither will be a problem in this one. Saints win and cover.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 8TH
1:00pm EST, FOX
Atlanta at NY Giants (-3) - Holy shit, what an up-and-down year for the G-Men. They survived a four-game skid (three of those to playoff teams, and one to a DREAM TEAM) and two losses to the Redskins (!) while still winning the division. Their successes were impressive; wins in Philly and Foxborough, dominating the Jets, and sweeping the Cowboys. New York seems to have some good momentum heading into the playoffs, and much to the chagrin of offensive tackles and readers of Deejay's posts everywhere, Jason Pierre-Paul has become a dominant force on the edge. Brandon Jacobs has become a dominant force in douchebaggery, but that's neither here nor there. Atlanta has some momentum of their own, with offensive explosions in three of their last four games, thanks in no small part to JULIO. They're 1-4 against playoff teams, but only the loss in New Orleans was by double digits. The weather might be a factor in East Rutherford on Sunday (30% chance of rain/snow and temps in the low 40s) and I like the home field advantage and New York's ground game a bit more if things get ugly. And just so I don't go an entire write-up without mentioning a quarterback, Eli > Matty Ice. That said, this should be a good one. Giants win and (barely) cover.
4:30pm EST, CBS
Pittsburgh at Denver (+8.5) - Remember that first round "bye" the Saints had last year, only someone forgot to tell Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks? Can the Tebows turn the trick for a second year in a row? Nope. Pittsburgh's defense is healthy (except for Ryan Clark and his weak ass blood cells) and isn't allowing very many points as of late. Losing Mendenhall will hurt a bit, but let's be honest, he's pedestrian to begin with. You just know him because he's on fantasy teams for being a featured back who gets goal line carries. And as archi will tell you, John Clay is a boss. Remember when Denver won six straight and Tebow was the toast of the NFL? Well, sports media, you were all wrong. Every last one of you. You should all be ashamed of yourselves. You ignored what you saw right in front of your collective face just because a team was winning. Look at those six wins now. None against playoff teams. None against teams with winning records. Four of the six a product of an incredible defense led by Von Miller. You sort of expected the magic to end against New England, but getting blown out by Buffalo, and failing to score a touchdown against Kansas City? C'mon, man! I have no vibe for how this game will play out. But I can say with certainty that every scenario I can think of has Pittsburgh winning. Because of their offensive line problems, I'll bet they don't put up enough to cover. Steelers win, Broncos with the points.