NFL Divisional Weekend: Three good games, one more round for Tebow, and Zombie Schottenheimer

[Bregor]

He's not just crazy because he's Evangelical Baptist, folks.

http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-conten...-THE-TEBOW.gif

Last week
Pick: 2-2
ATS: 3-1

Overall
Pick: 168-92
ATS: 135-118-7


SATURDAY, JANUARY 14TH

4:30pm EST, FOX

New Orleans at San Francisco (+3.5) - Much has been made of New Orleans' success in the dome. And while the numbers don't lie, it's not like Brees turns into a pumpkin when he has to breathe un-air conditioned oxygen. In fact the three games he threw for under 300 yards occurred in domed stadiums (v.CHI, @STL, v.TB) and only one of those was a loss. The much bigger deterrent to the Saints' success on Saturday will be the 49ers defense, which was truly excellent. They were 2nd in scoring defense, 4th in total defense, and 1st in rushing defense. They were also tied for 2nd in interceptions and 7th in sacks. But the key to keeping that defense fresh will be Frank Gore and Alex Smith. If they can win the time of possession battle by chewing up yards and first downs, the '9ers have a good shot. But Gore lagged and battled injury at the end of the season, his last 100-yard performance came in week 9 and he only scored 3 touchdowns in those 8 games. And do you trust Alex Smith to win a playoff game? Saints win and cover.

8:00pm EST, CBS

Denver at New England (-13.5) - Holy two touchdown spread in the playoffs, Batman! I loved hearing and reading the quotes in the media (and last week's thread) about how tough Pittsburgh would be, and how no one wanted to face them in the playoffs. At some point I thought they were being sarcastic, or in the case of BG, trolling. Whatever the case, the big bad Steelers are gone now. Nevermind the fact that the injuries got so bad, I thought they should be called the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Steelers. (Look it up, non-hockey thread people.) All that remains from that Wild Card game in Denver is Von Miller Tim Tebow. Deal with it. But the problems are evident for Denver. First thing's first, completing 9 passes and scoring 23 points in regulation will not get you past the Patriots. Also, losing Eric Decker will hurt the passing game even more, especially since I think the secret's out on Demaryius Thomas. As for New England, despite an uncharacteristically soft defense in the yardage department, Belichick has his team exactly where he wants it. They won eight straight to end the season, and if not for the dome still standing in New Orleans (thanks, Katrina) Tom Brady would have Dan Marino's record. I said last week, "I can say with certainty that every scenario I can think of has Pittsburgh winning." I'll repeat that now with New England. Don't let me down, Belichick. Patriots win, Broncos with the points.


SUNDAY, JANUARY 15TH

1:00pm EST, CBS

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5) - The Texans really surprised me last week. Coming off a three game losing streak, I thought they might play a little nervous in their first ever playoff game. But they were focused, they executed well, and won the turnover battle three to nothing. Yes, it was against Marvin Lewis, but the name of the game is survive and advance. Considering the defense is operating sans Mario Williams, and it's not like the offense is terribly dynamic with T.J. Yates back there, they did a fantastic job of bottling up the Bengals when they needed to down the stretch. As for Baltimore, some of their players probably would have preferred to play last week. They were red-hot (6-1 in their last 7) but the time off did allow for some bumps and bruises to heal, most notably to Anquan Boldin. I think we know the Ravens can stop anybody. The question is, can Flacco execute the offense in the playoffs? He's done fairly well in the past, as Baltimore has won at least one playoff game every year since they drafted him. Tack on Ray Rice and Vonta Leach's Pro Bowl seasons, and you have a good bet to out-perform the Texans offense. Ravens win, Texans with the points.

4:30pm EST, FOX

NY Giants at Green Bay (-7.5) - This line opened at (-8.5) and moved quickly to what it is now, which means that Vegas and its bettors agree with me -- the Giants have something going. Of all four games this weekend, this is the one I'm most looking forward too. Exactly four weeks ago, the Pack couldn't catch perfect passes from Rodgers struggled to get the offense going in Kansas City, and lost their only game of 2011. Now, they did turn it around in the two games after (and both they and Matt Flynn should profit from it) but which Packers team will we see on Sunday? Consider that the best thing anyone's said about their defense lately is that B.J. Raji is pretty good in a commercial. In fact the only playoff game they've won by more than 7 points with Rodgers under center was against Atlanta last year, and let's be honest,

Speaking of the Fightin' Ryans, New York put a stranglehold on Atlanta from start to finish. And considering the G-Men have already played Green Bay close once this season, I don't see why they can't turn the trick again. The biggest difference between week 13 and now should be the Giants' ground game, which churned out 172 yards against the Falcons last week. Getting Bradshaw and Jacobs rolling will be key to keeping the ball away from Rodgers, especially now that Jennings appears to be healthy again. I think points are a little tougher to come by, but the end result will be the same -- Green Bay takes this on their last drive. Packers win, Giants with the points.

[Demosthenes11]

patriots win by 6 as the tebows score 14 points in the final 3 minutes to scare the fuck out of every patriot fan in america

[Headspace]

Good thing Tom Brady sucks in January

[archibaldcrane]

Consider that the best thing anyone's said about their defense lately is that B.J. Raji is pretty good in a commercial.

Well, that, and they've forced 8 more interceptions than the 2nd place team.

[archibaldcrane]

Also, pretty nuts. All-time yards allowed by opponent:

[Conrad]

Saints
Broncos
Ravens
Giants (ugh)

Rationales:
- Saints-Packers would be too epic of a game and will never happen
- Tebow Cinderella story, blah blah
- Flacco Flaccoin' > Yates Yatesin'
- fucking giants

[Dimmauk]

[Chun Liroy]

Saints pats Houston packers

[Boyiee]

pats ravens
gb saints

[Boyiee]

although I'd like to see the giants and 9ers win.

[Tweek]

Also, pretty nuts. All-time yards allowed by opponent:

ridiculous company looking at the w/l records

[Demosthenes11]

who the fuck needs a defense

[Bregor]

Also, pretty nuts. All-time yards allowed by opponent:

Welcome to the new NFL. GOODELL

[Demosthenes11]

we'll see how far the niners defense gets them saturday lol (not very far)

[archibaldcrane]

ridiculous company looking at the w/l records

Yep. Yards allowed as a measure of a defense in a vacuum is fucking retarded. People need to start looking at more advanced metrics, like DVOA.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...1-dvoa-ratings

(of course, NE's defense is awful in DVOA also, and the Packers isn't great.)

[Demosthenes11]

Yep. Yards allowed as a measure of a defense in a vacuum is fucking retarded. People need to start looking at more advanced metrics, like DVOA.

http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ra...1-dvoa-ratings

(of course, NE's defense is awful in DVOA also, and the Packers isn't great.)

NOT THE WORST

[Tweek]

we'll see how far the niners defense gets them saturday lol (not very far)

arguing with yourself here?

[Demosthenes11]

touching myself

[Tweek]

Yep. Yards allowed as a measure of a defense in a vacuum is fucking retarded.

yeah it always has been that's why I hate that people use it when saying shit like 2nd best/worst DEF in the NFL this year as if points allowed, turnovers and other shit aren't more important factors in helping win games

[archibaldcrane]

Seriously though, I doubt SF will drop as many INTs as Detroit did last week (3? 4?). Brees got lucky.