US Presidential Election: Fight of the Mirror Moderates (and Moles) 2012

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

So much for those 'don't re-nig' bumper stickers.

Don't hold your breath, Drudge has never gotten a VP choice correct.

[Moridam]

a lot of people are probably familiar with greg mankiw without knowing it. he's authored some widely used undergrad-level econ textbooks. also had a bit of spotlight last fall when some of his intro econ students walked out on the lecture in protest of the course's ideological slant. i believe he's also written for the NYT a bunch as well.

[Plow]

If anyone honestly believes the repubs are going to put a pro-choice black woman on their ticket right now, I've got some beachfront property...

Spoiler: show

I'm sure there was absolutely no correlation between pissing off the naacp and fox&friends suddenly claiming condi is a "frontrunner" for vp at all.

[Tyche]

Related

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ey/#more-32051

Also, this is one of my fav blogs on the election. Sabermetrics guru runs the numbers and he was really damn accurate in 2008.

July 13, 2012, 6:55 PM
In Search for Female Running Mate, a Short List for Romney
By NATE SILVER
I’m not going to waste my time, or yours, speculating about whether Condoleezza Rice might become Mitt Romney’s running mate when there is no credible reporting to that effect.

But it does seem as though the days when the four candidates on the major-party tickets are all men will be coming to an end, and soon. Sarah Palin gave women a shot at shattering the glass ceiling four years ago. If Mr. Romney wanted to pick a woman this year, whom might he choose?

Actually, Mr. Romney has a bit of a problem. The Republican women with the most traditional qualifications for the vice presidency tend to be moderates, especially on abortion choice, probably making them unacceptable to the Republican base. Another group of up-and-coming female governors and senators may not be adequately seasoned for the rigors of the campaign trail. The few exceptions are probably too old, or too controversial, to be smart choices with swing voters. It has nothing to do with their gender, but any of the women that Mr. Romney might choose would be at least a little risky.

Let’s start by drawing up a “long list” of potential candidates. The qualifications for this are pretty straightforward. You have to be a woman, and a Republican. And you have to have served as governor or U.S. senator in the past five years, or as an alternative, have run for president before.

There are 14 women that meet these criteria. However, all 14 fall into one or more of the problematic categories that I described before.

Potentially Unacceptable to Republican Base

Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Former Gov. Linda Lingle of Hawaii
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Former Gov. M. Jodi Rell of Connecticut
Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine

The six women on this list have generally supported abortion choice — some mostly so, and some more emphatically. That could make them unacceptable options to many Republican base voters, and to many of the delegates at the Republican National Convention, especially since Mr. Romney’s history of varied positions on abortion makes him somewhat wobbly on the issue. (Ms. Rice would also have problems along these lines; she has described herself as “mildly pro-choice.”)

Recall that four years ago, John McCain’s strategists concluded that picking Ms. Palin, while risky, was nevertheless less of a risk than picking a running mate like Tom Ridge who supported abortion rights. Mr. Romney, who has generally run a prudent and cautious campaign, is unlikely to break form.

Most of the women on this list, like Ms. Snowe, take moderate stances on a host of issues along with abortion. The closest thing to an exception is Ms. Hutchison, who takes a conservative view on most issues. However, she did herself few favors with the Republican base by running to Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s left in a primary challenge, and failing in that effort.

Potentially Unacceptable to Swing Voters

Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona
Former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska

Most vice presidential nominees, like the presidential nominees themselves, tend to be roughly in the middle of their parties rather than at one of the wings. While the selection of Ms. Palin or Mrs. Bachmann might excite the Republican base, they are deeply unpopular figures with independent voters and would represent a clumsy attempt by Mr. Romney to thread the needle.

Ms. Brewer is less well known as a national figure. But her very conservative stances on immigration would bring that issue to the fore, when Mr. Romney would presumably rather focus on the tepid economic recovery.

Would Be Oldest Vice President at Inauguration

Former Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina

Ms. Dole is the only name on this list, apart from Mrs. Bachmann, to have officially run for president before — although her candidacy, in 2000, was mostly a flop. Her strong personal qualities and long history of public service might nevertheless make her an interesting choice, but she would be 76 years old upon her inauguration next year.

That would make her the oldest vice president on inauguration by some margin; the current record-holder is Alben W. Barkley, who was sworn in at 71 in 1949. Since Mr. Romney, 65, is himself fairly old, and since the Constitutional function of the vice president is to be ready to step in if the president dies or resigns, that is probably disqualifying.

Limited National Exposure and Experience

Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire
Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma
Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico

All four of these women were elected to their current positions for the first time in the Republican wave year of 2010, and all come from small or medium-size states.

Some of them, particularly Ms. Ayotte and Ms. Martinez, have nevertheless drawn buzz as potential choices. But they would present several risks to Mr. Romney.

First, none of them has much of a national profile (although Ms. Ayotte has sometimes been a surrogate for Mr. Romney on the campaign trail). It is simply hard to predict how a candidate will fare when they receive massive national exposure for the first time. Consider how many candidates who, like Mr. Perry and former Utah Gov. Jon M. Huntsman Jr., had eminently strong credentials, but were soon exposed as weak campaigners. Vice presidential nominees, who are thrown into the news media spotlight with just a few months remaining until the election, have even less opportunity to learn on the job.

The best hedge is to pick someone who has actually run for president or vice president before: a description that fits only Ms. Palin, Mrs. Bachmann and Ms. Dole, all of whom are likely unacceptable for other reasons. Absent that, the closest approximation might be picking someone from a large state with competitive media markets and a diverse population, which better simulates the national environment than a state like New Hampshire might.

Or you might pick someone who had been in office for long enough to have built up some national name recognition, making them less of an unknown. Any of these women might meet that standard in four or eight years, but they do not right now.

Apart from the fact that an untested vice presidential nominee might be a mediocre campaigner, there is also some chance of a serious problem turning up in his or her background. Vice presidential vetting processes have missed large problems in candidates including Spiro T. Agnew and Thomas Eagleton (and possibly John Edwards, depending on the timing of his marital improprieties). There is no reason to suspect women like Ms. Ayotte of any wrongdoing, but from an actuarial standpoint, these problems seem to occur more often with relatively inexperienced candidates.

Finally, even if these candidates proved to be adept campaigners and had few or no vetting problems, their relative lack of experience could itself be an issue to voters, as it was for Mrs. Palin.

Of course, if Mr. Romney feels as though he needs to pursue a high-risk strategy to win the White House, then he might be willing to take a chance on an inexperienced candidate, or one who might anger his base. Many of these women are bright, talented politicians who will be in the national spotlight for decades to come.

For the time being, however, Mr. Romney remains close to President Obama in the polls, and could easily win the election without circumstances changing much. And an unsuccessful vice presidential choice generally harms a candidate more than a good one can help. If he’s playing it safe, it will probably be another four years until the glass ceiling is broken.

[Kerberoz]

Basically, Romney needs to find a woman who hates women. Shouldn't be that difficult.

[Mrbeansman]

Thought women would be out this cycle after 2008.

[Kerberoz]

Thought women would be out this cycle after 2008.

Republican women only miss a cycle if they're carrying to term.

[Kanriel]

Basically, Romney needs to find a woman who hates women. Shouldn't be that difficult.

The person in VA who introduced the bill to give women an ultrasound before an abortion was a woman, maybe she'd be a good VP.

[Mrbeansman]

The person in VA who introduced the bill to give women an ultrasound before an abortion was a woman, maybe she'd be a good VP.

I know why she did it but what was the excuse she gave for why it was necessary?

[Kanriel]

I know why she did it but what was the excuse she gave for why it was necessary?

“(An abortion) is a procedure that ultimately will take a life with it,” said Del. Kathy Byron, R-Lynchburg. “(The ultrasound) will not only supply her but the doctors with the age of that unborn child. It’s also going to enable the doctor to perform a safer abortion.”

Best I could really find for it.

[Bregor]

Related

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ey/#more-32051

Also, this is one of my fav blogs on the election. Sabermetrics guru runs the numbers and he was really damn accurate in 2008.

Nate Silver is awesomesauce.

Also, re: women for VP -- I always thought Kay Bailey Hutchison was a great VP pick, and I expected her to be McCain's running mate. But then again, I'm very socially liberal for a Republican, and the discourse during the primary season made me seriously consider switching teams. I saw Nikki Haley on Colbert, she was good but didn't strike me as VP material quite yet.

That said, I don't think there's any way Romney wins this election. He reminds me so much of John Kerry. He's white, rich, not terribly charismatic, and expects to win just because he's not the incumbent. Unless there's a major political event, and not just something stupid like bad numbers for the Dow and S&P, I think Obama wins in a walk. His base isn't as fired up as they were in 2008 yet, but once there's a VP pick and the debates begin, I think they will be.

[Vuitton]

ha

[Xantavia]

ha

Don't you dare bring that up. It is unethical and undignified to point out flaws in your opponents claims. Or at least it is when a Democrat does it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/us...pagewanted=all

Mitt Romney demanded an apology from President Obama on Friday for making what he called “reckless” and “absurd” allegations in an escalating battle over whether Mr. Romney’s business record included outsourcing American jobs.

[quannum]

but he's not lying he resigned retro-actively guys

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

If he really committed a felony Obama should just prosecute him.

[MaachaQ]

Not presidential, but still part of the national election this year...

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/07/1...f-u-s-senator/

Iowa Republican says government illegitimate, declares herself U.S. Senator
By Jonathan Terbush
Saturday, July 14, 2012 19:48 EDT

An Iowa woman who was running for a state Senate seat has dropped that bid after deciding the U.S. government is a sham, and has instead unilaterally declared herself a U.S. Senator from the Republic of Iowa in an alternative government, the Republic for the United States of America.

As Jason Noble of the Des Moines Register first reported, the candidate, Randi Shannon, had been running for the state’s 34th Senate district. However, she recently came to believe that the real U.S. government was replaced with an illegal one after the Civil War so, rather than continue her state-level pursuit, she dropped that bid and named herself a Senator of the what she thinks is the true government.

In a letter fittingly posted to her campaign’s Facebook page on July 4, Shannon wrote that the country was founded as the Republic for The United States for America in 1787, and that it remained as such until the 1860s, when it was abandoned during the Civil War. Once the war ended, she wrote, the government was replaced by the, “UNITED STATES CORPORATION,” [sic] which has endured to this day as the nation’s farcical governing body.

In a statement riddled with curious capitalization meant to emphasize the government’s foibles, Shannon derides the federal government for, she claims, stomping out entrepreneurship, infringing on personal liberties, and just generally being an unconstitutional entity. Perhaps worst, she says, are the elected lawmakers who have perpetuated this system and in doing so have, “committed the most egregious acts against ‘We the People.’”

“Therefore, in order to affect the most good on behalf of The People of Iowa’s 34th District and in keeping with my conscience, I have accepted the position of U.S. Senator in The Republic of The United States of America, where I may better serve You and All of The People of Iowa,” Shannon wrote. “I want you to know I have taken an Oath to Uphold, Support and Defend The Constitution of The United States of America. This I will do to the best of my ability, So Help Me God.”

Shannon, who describes herself as a Ron Paul supporter, backs many of the same policy positions famously espoused by the Libertarian-leaning Texas congressman. She advocates eliminating the Department of Education (following its transfer to the Republic of the United States) and drastically cutting taxes while ending foreign occupations and stopping the Affordable Care Act. And, since she believes the government has been a false one for a century and a half, she considers all amendments to the Bill of Rights from the 14th on to be invalid.

“Again, Remember, where the de jure Republic of The United States of America exists the de facto UNITED STATES CORPORATION, having no standing, must go away!,” Shannon wrote.

[Byrthnoth]

Shannon, who describes herself as a Ron Paul supporter...

Well, if suspension of disbelief is a life skill then I think we can safely say she has at least one life skill.

[Apelila]

What would happen if it comes out that he did fuck up that badly? We all 'know' it wont, but given how big of a fuck up it would be what would happen?

The rumor seems so simple to dispel; that they've done so little besides demand Obama apologize for bringing it up (wut?) suggests to me at least that there be something there that they don't want to own up to. Its going to look worse as the campaign drags on too. With Obama's birth certificate at least it wasn't Obama refusing to release it, it was the states laws which prevented it being released.

[Byrthnoth]

What would happen if it comes out that he did fuck up that badly? We all 'know' it wont, but given how big of a fuck up it would be what would happen?

The rumor seems so simple to dispel; that they've done so little besides demand Obama apologize for bringing it up (wut?) suggests to me at least that there be something there that they don't want to own up to. Its going to look worse as the campaign drags on too. With Obama's birth certificate at least it wasn't Obama refusing to release it, it was the states laws which prevented it being released.

What do you mean "if?" He was the sole stockholder, CEO, and chairmen of the board according to official SEC filings that he signed up until 2002. He then "retired retroactively" to 1999 because he had technically been on a leave of absence since then. AKA, CEO, sole stockholder, and chairman of the board but didn't actually do anything for three years. It must suck to be rich.

Anyway, Romney's campaign would say that he's not responsible for the outsourcing that Bain did during that time because he was on a leave of absence and was intentionally not involved in running the company because he was trying to avoid conflicts of interest with his political obligations. Obama's campaign would say that he was, because he had pretty much all of the executive power in the company and was choosing not to use it.

Personally, I don't think "retroactive retiring" is even possible. They should have played it as a leave of absence from the start and never let the retroactive retiring thing get off the ground.

[Ragnus]

Whenever I hear the term "retroactive retiring" it brings the thought of someone getting fired, and then telling their next interviewer that he didn't actually get fired because he retroactively quit a few weeks before getting canned.