Chris Kluwe is awesome.
"Griffining" is the new thing everyone is already sick of.
And the scab refs are gonna be here for a while.
M/L: 11-5
ATS: 9-7
THURSDAY. SEPTEMBER 13TH
8:20pm EDT
Chicago at Green Bay (-6) - Of the six teams playing in prime time this week, only Green Bay lost their opening game. Huh. Seem unfathomable for them to start 0-2 at home? Their turnstyle defense allowed 7 yards per carry to Frank Gore, and despite consistent pressure on Alex Smith (4 sacks) he was able to find open receivers with ease. Rodgers is once again leading the air attack, but he also led the team in rushing, which isn't a good thing. Last year the Pack was able to average 97.4 yards per game rushing -- if they don't get one of their tailbacks going, they could be in trouble. Chicago took a little while to get it going against Indy, but once they did, it got ugly in a hurry. The defense forced five turnovers, CUTTY threw for over 300 yards, and even Megaton got into the action. Still, I don't think they'll be able to hassle Rodgers they way they did Luck, and if this becomes a shootout, advantage Pack. This should be a good one, but I'll take Green Bay to win, Chicago with the points.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16TH
1:00pm EDT
Oakland at Miami (+2.5) - Shit game. This line has actually moved in Oakland's favor since their God-awful Monday night performance. Sure, Palmer looked sharp, but the problems on special teams were obvious, and their receivers looked pretty inconsistent. Maybe it's just dawning on people how terrible Inspector Gadget Joe Philbin and his team are. They've got some pieces -- Jake Long and the rest of the line are solid, and I like Reggie Bush, but it's gonna take a while for it to work on offense. Defensively, they're fine -- no unit can hold down the Texans after four consecutive turnovers in one quarter off football. This will be ugly, but I (re)learned my lesson about home dogs last week. Miami in the upset.
Kansas City at Buffalo (-3) - Shit game, version two. The Chiefs have drafted for defense a lot -- five starters are first-round picks from the last seven years, with a sixth getting heavy rotation as a rookie -- but it hasn't panned out. Offensively, Matt Cassel was responsible for all three turnovers last week, but he was stuck playing catch-up for the entire game, which doesn't vibe with their grind-it-out mentality. I would expect KC to give a healthy dose of carries to both Charles and Hillis in Buffalo. The revamped Bills D-line allowed Shonn Greene to pile up 94 yards and a score, although it was in his typical, plodding style (3.5 yards per carry.) They also allowed Sanchez to pick them apart for a 70% completion percentage and three TDs, so they've got some work to do. Offensively, I wouldn't blame them for getting hit in the mouth by the Jets defense, as they were able to get some things going in the 2nd half. I like Fitz, Spiller, and Stevie to get going in this one, Bills win and cover.
Minnesota at Indianapolis (+1.5) - Shit game, version three. Adrian Peterson terrorized his fantasy owners, racking up 87 total yards and 2 TDs while on most people's benches. They won't make that same mistake when he suits up against the Cololts. Indy actually opened as the favorite, and I can see why. Last week's debacle was in a tough environment, but they head home to the dome for this one, where Luck should thrive. I also like Donald Brown, who looked as spry as any Colts tailback in recent memory. If the defense can cause a few turnovers from Ponder, I love their chances. I'll take Indy in the upset.
Baltimore at Philadelphia (-2.5) - Bettors must love the NFC East, because I feel like Dallas and Philly are always overvalued in terms of the spread. Maybe I'm missing something, but the Ravens smashed a playoff team while Philly needed a late TD drive to dispatch the fucking Browns. This seems like a fantasy feeding frenzy, with Rice vs. Shady as the headliner, but Baltimore's defense might steal the show against the turnover-prone Vick. As for the final score, Flacco's legend grows as he gets another victory, and Baltimorons keep singing his praises. Ravens in the upset.
Arizona at New England (-13.5) - IT'S KOLBBERIN' TIME! Of all the teams to win in week 1, I was most surprised by Arizona. Not only did The Skelton Key keep them in the game, but Kolb led them on a 4th quarter drive to go ahead for good. But that was at home against Seattle. Now they go to Foxborough, where Brady is 35-1 in his last 36 regular season home starts. I loved everything about the Pats last week, especially their defensive performance. Whether that was a symptom of genuine improvement, or the Titants offense at work, we'll find out soon enough. But not this week, as New England will probably smash again. Patriots win and cover that massive line.
New Orleans at Carolina (+2.5) - Hoo boy. This is a tough game to predict, as I'm pretty down on both of these teams this season. Cam Newton threw two picks and failed to gain much of anything on the ground, as the Tampa Bay defense was uncharacteristically stingy last week. Even worse, the Cats only had the ball for 22:33, and if they do that again and give the Saints over 35 minutes of possession, look out. Breesus put up his typical numbers at home last week, but it was too little too late against a sensational Redskins team. I look for him to really ramp it up in this one, I'm talking 400+ yards, so Carolina's secondary might just want to duck and get out of the way. The New Orleans defense (or lack thereof) will keep it interesting, but the Saints win and cover.
Houston at Jacksonville (+7.5) - Houston did what Houston does last week -- pound the rock, and play defense. Foster was clearly limited but he still churned out 79 yards and 2 TDs. But four turnovers from Miami put them in easier positions to score, and I think Jacksonville will be a little more careful with the ball. Much to my surprise, the Jags offense looks competent, with Gabbert playing well and MJD not missing a beat after his lengthy holdout. I think this is a sleeper game, and it should be close. I'll take Texans to win, Jags with the points.
Tampa Bay at NY Giants (-7.5) - I was really surprised to see the Giants come out so poorly against Dallas. Then again, it isn't a season in New York until Tom Coughlin starts slow and there are rumors about his job security. I fully expect better results from the defense and the ground game. Tampa Bay either played way over their heads last week, or every single player on the team was punting last season to get Raheem Morris fired. My money's on the latter. Doug Martin got off to a good start, so we'll see how he does against a run D that gave up some big runs to DeMarco Murray. That spread looks a little big, but I don't see New York starting 0-2. Giants to win, Bucs with the points.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7) -
Spoiler: show
Cincinnati wins, Cleveland covers.
4:05pm EDT
Washington at St. Louis (+3) - Clash of the BIG TWELVE quarterbacks. The Rams gave Detroit a real scare, but their offense didn't do them any favors, only gaining 251 total yards and 1 offensive TD. That O-line still isn't keeping Bradford upright or opening any holes for Jackson. I do like their defense, but not enough to stop Robert Griffin III, or as he's often called, "Bob Griff." Such a catchy nickname. Washington actually stuffed New Orleans pretty well last week, with a lot of their yards coming in garbage time. They gamble a lot with their blitzes, but I don't think Bradford will be able to make them pay for it. I'm not drinking the burgundy and gold Kool-Aid just yet, but Redskins win and cover in this one.
Dallas at Seattle (+3) - I have no vibe on this game, but the betting trend tells me people like Dallas here. I guess it makes sense superficially, but I think Seattle's defense is very underrated. And with the 'Boys coming off a huge win, it makes sense that they'd choke away their momentum. So my gut tells me to take the Seahawks at home. The only problem is that Dallas is the one team my gut is most often wrong about, so I want to hedge a bit by taking the Cowboys to win, Seahawks with the points.
4:25pm EDT
Tennessee at San Diego (-6) - Norv Turner, the traditioanlly slow starter, was handed a gift from Oakland's backup long snapper Monday night. If not for that comedy of errors, either Rivers or the replacement refs would have found a way to botch the game for the Chargers. A day earlier, Tennessee had their hands full with Brady and company, and I'm willing to give them a mulligan considering how good Belichick is after a meaningful loss. The Hurt Locker was actually pretty good, but Chris Johnson's 4 yards on 11 carries (!) will obviously have to improve. Can San Diego actually string together a winning streak in September? Maybe they're the post-hype sleeper this season, 7-foot receivers be damned. Chargers win, Titans with the points.
NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-6) - Speaking of post-hype sleeper, I absolutely love the Jets this season. God, it feels dirty saying that. For all the preseason hand-wringing, Sanchez and the offense were fine, and as I predicted the defense looks ready to sting dey asses. If Revis is healthy enough to play, I love their chances this week. Pittsburgh got worked over (again) by the Broncos at altitude, but their problems extend beyond Ryan Clark's weak ass cells. The O-line is a mess once again, and their best running back looks like a tubby, diabetic version of Dave Chappelle. Polamalu has another shampoo commercial out, which pretty much guarantees a horrific injury is coming soon. Maybe it's more wish-casting, but I'll take the Jets in the upset.
8:20pm EDT
Detroit at San Francisco (-6.5) - So San Fran is obviously for real, right? How much more do they have to win before people start believing? You don't have to believe in Alex Smith, necessarily. Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl with less, so be careful when you dismiss this offense. They remind me so much of Alabama -- just enough balance on offense to keep teams honest, and a defense that hits teams in the mouth and creates short fields. I love it. Detroit was caught sleepwalking to a win last week, and if they try to pull that shit again here, it's gonna get ugly real fast. Someone give me odds on a Stafford injury, and I'll take it. 49ers win and cover.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17TH
8:30pm EDT
Denver at Atlanta (-3) - I am very excited for this shootout. Demaryius Thomas versus Julio Jones. Oh, tiny infant Jesus, thank you for this game. Unlike his unibrowed counterpart in Baltimore, I'm starting to come around on Matt Ryan as a very good quarterback. I won't use the term "elite" yet, since that will spark twelve pages of pointless debate here, but I think they should continue to put up points, especially this week at home. Peyton Manning should also benefit from the controlled environment, and the workmanlike ground game of McGahee and Moreno (and Hillman if healthy) should perform a little better than they did against the Steelers. I actually think the Broncos are a little bit better of a team right now, but home field and JULIO tilt the scales the other way. Falcons win and cover.