Last week
M/L: 10-5
ATS: 6-8-1
Overall
M/L: 36-27
ATS: 30-30-3
BYE: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4TH
8:20pm EDT
Arizona at St. Louis (+1.5) - I really hate all the September or "quarter pole" articles about "what have we learned." It's four fucking games, people. Arizona is not the best team in the NFL, you mouth-breathing nitwits. Yes, their defense is terrifyingly awesome. But the last time I checked, they still have a Kolb/The Skelton Key tandem at quarterback, and Beanie Wells is still on the roster. At this point I think Beanie only exists to make Ryan Mathews feel durable and effective. Looking objectively at the NFC West, it's still the 49ers vs. the rest, but "the rest" is much-improved, as the Rams proved last week by upsetting the 1-3 2-2 Seahawks. St. Louis's two losses look pretty tough, both were on the road at the hands of far more talented teams. But I love Jeff Fisher, and I always thought he would turn the franchise around. I just didn't expect results this soon. Bradford is still taking a beating back there (already 14 sacks allowed) but the defense, especially the secondary, is playing lights-out. They had 12 interceptions all of last season, and they already have 8 in 2012. If the Rams can squeeze some turnovers out of the Arizona offense, and they can contain Fitzgerald vertically and Peterson in the return game, I love their chances. I'm taking the Rams in the upset.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7TH
1:00pm EDT
Miami at Cincinnati (-3.5) - I would pay to see Headspace and Tyche in a slap fight. "What did the five fingers say to the face?" "COOOOOOOLD BLOOOOODED!" It would be more entertaining than this game, that's for sure. I have fantasy shares in Reggie Bush and A.J. Green, though, so they might as well play this one regardless. Bengals win and cover.
Cleveland at NY Giants (-9) - This spread opened at -13, so bettors are smartly moving it in Cleveland's direction. Fact is, with their solid defense and TRENT pounding the rock, they're not a team that gets blown out a lot. Covering in Ballmurr last week was the easiest bet on the book. But it's the same old story for the Brownies -- 27th ranked scoring offense, led by the lowest rated passer in the league. It's not all on Derpy McDerpsalot Brandon Weeden either, as drops and inexperience has plagued the receiving corps. As for the Giants, there's just no consistency on defense. If you don't believe me, consider the just allowed Mike Vick to play a turnover-free game. Yeop. The good news is Eli is slingin' it as well as he ever has. I'm convinced the Giants can put anyone at receiver and watch them rack up stats, a la the Greater Manning's heyday in Indy. To prove my point, someone get David Tyree back in here. Anyway, as per tradition, I'll take the Browns to lose but cover a two-score spread.
Green Bay at Indianapolis (+7) - In memory of Steve Sabol and Harry Kalas, I'm imagining Kalas saying, "FAVRE. MANNING." over and over. Gives me chills. Anyway, this game would have meant something a few years ago, but now it's just an excuse for Aaron Rodgers to take his frustrations out in a climate-controlled environment. Packers win and cover.
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (-3) - What an odd time it is for Pennsylvania sports. The Phillies, perennial playoff favorites, were snuffed out of contention by the Montreal Expos Washington Senators Washington Nationals, and the withered husk of Chipper Jones. The Pirates, who were cruising into a wild card spot in July, completely tanked (again) and finished below .500 (again.) I would imagine Penguins and Flyers fans are just roaming the state, looking for the douchiest fans of their rival team, waiting to assault them by pulling their shirts over their heads and wailing on them. That, or they are simply throwing another tantrum. The 76ers managed to acquire the only player on the Lakers whose locker room cancer outweighs his talent, and Pittsburgh is too shitty to even have an NBA team. I guess what I'm saying is, GO DRAM TRAM AND RAPIST, because that's all you assholes have right now. Early on, I thought the Steelers were past their prime, but they've hung in there through some key injuries (like every season) and are in position to do some damage. At this point, I like them for a wild card spot. Steelers win and cover.
Atlanta at Washington (+3) - Was I the only one hoping for Billy Cundiff to miss his fourth field goal last Sunday to send the 'Skins to 1-3? Sell out three drafts for one player, don't address glaring need in special teams. That's the Dan Snyder Way©! Alfred Morris has been a revelation, though, he's currently fifth in the league in yards and tied for the lead with 4 rushing TDs. He'd have more if not for that self-centered, stats-first asshole RGIII calling his own number at the goal line. (See, anyone can dream up terrible narratives about quarterbacks. LEAVE CUTTY ALONE!) I know I picked the 49ers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but I've been riding the Falcons bandwagon for a few weeks now, and I'm not getting off. Except when JULIO makes a play, then I am definitely getting off. Now, about that run defense... Falcons win and cover.
Baltimore at Kansas City (+6) - God, I hate the Ravens. It goes beyond the whole used-to-be-my-now-favorite-team thing. I hate Torrey Smith, who people compared to JULIO out of the draft, which is laughable. Sure, he had a monster game against the Pats, but if you need that kind of extra motivation against a quality opponent, you're eventually gonna run out of family members. (Narrative!) I also can't understand how anyone can root for Joe Flacco. I mean, I understand that rooting for the Ravens to win lends itself to wanting Flacco to do well. But who the fuck is buying Flacco jerseys? Who wants their team to lock Flacco up for five, six, seven years? He's like football's Paul O'Neill. Sure, he can be a role player on a championship club, and maybe even win a major award or two. But walking around in public with his jersey on is like saying to the world, "I love me some white guys, and I love them BLAND!" As for the Chiefs, I've highlighted how terrible their defense is in previous threads. They may be dealing with short fields in a lot of situations, but 136 points allowed, two picks, one forced fumbled, and eight sacks in four games just isn't going to get it done. Also, Matt Cassel. Still, home dog alert! Ravens win, Chiefs with the points.
4:05pm EDT
Chicago at Jacksonville (+6) - Chicago's schedule seems light at first glance, but Indy and St. Louis are better than people think, and some in the media keep saying how good Dallas is, for reasons undetermined. With an opportunity to go into their bye week at 4-1, I fully expect the Bears to pummel the hapless Jags. Jacksonville can't get to the quarterback, and they don't have anyone who can cover Brandon Marshall. Also, Gabbert's week one success looks less like a coming-out party and more like an aberration. Bears win and cover.
Seattle at Carolina (-3) - Weirdest spread in my opinion. A week ago, the Seahawks stole a win from Green Bay but showed tremendous poise and toughness to even have a chance at that last play, and were the toast of the NFL. But a loss to the Rams has a way of taking the wind out of your sails, just ask Washington. The Panthers, meanwhile, let Cam scam them out of a win with a costly fumble late in the game. Is it any surprise that Cam's team finds a way to lose while JULIO's team finds a way to win? ROLL DAMN TIDE. Carolina could be 3-1 if they had any kind of secondary, but teams can go over the top on them when they need to. Russell Wilson might not have the arm to do that consistently, but Lynch should have his usual day at the office, so anything they get through the air should be gravy. Seahawks in the upset(?).
4:25pm EDT
Buffalo at San Francisco (-10) - All this Colin Kaepernick fake-controversy shit is driving me insane. There's no way they make a change, I don't care how shitty Alex Smith does. It's like the media can sense everyone is fucking fed up with the Tebow hype, and is sniffing around for their next option quarterback to ram down our throats. Joke's on you, media lemmings, he's not divisive, and he won't attempt to evangelize you in press conferences. I had high hopes for Buffalo's defense coming into the season, but outside of Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus, I don't trust anyone else to make a play. They should still score enough points to keep this one interesting, however. Minny had success pounding the ball, and if Jackson and Spiller can be effective, I'm hoping for a good game here. 49ers win, Bills with the points.
Denver at New England (-6.5) - This is the AFC Championship matchup I predicted before the season, and I'll stand by it. Denver seems like the kind of team that will only get better as the season goes on, as Manning develops chemistry with the receivers and tight ends, and the defense ramps up the intensity in the chase for the playoffs. Meanwhile, New England has been the model of consistency, and could easily be 4-0 right now. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see them run the table from here to week 14 (vs. Houston) and lock up another AFC East crown by Hannukah. I picked the Broncos to upset Houston two weeks ago on a gut feeling that we'd see some vintage Manning magic. Fool me once... The Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser will have a big game, but it's Bradylocks who gets the last laugh here. Patriots win, Broncos with the points.
Tennessee at Minnesota (-5.5) - It's not so much that I'm buying the Vikes. It's that the Titans are really, really bad. They flat-out stink on the road, and the Greater Hasselbeck is starting again. Teams are running early and often against Tennessee (TOUGH FOOTBALL) so get Adrian Peterson in your lineups. Just don't refer to him by a dumb nickname, please. Vikings win and cover.
8:20pm EDT
San Diego at New Orleans (-3.5) - I keep hearing shit about how the Saints "aren't really that bad" or are "the best 0-4 team ever." I don't care if it's true or not, that's like saying you're the tallest guy in Hobbiton or the smartest member of Leroy's family. You're still shit. They're so bad against the run, I would even start Ryan Mathews this week. (Who am I kidding? He's obviously getting hurt again.) Conversely, the Chargers might be the worst 3-1 team ever. Wins against Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City? Who gives a shit. Their defense has been surprisingly good, but Brees in the dome should put a stop to that. Take the over. Also, Saints win and cover.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 8TH
8:30pm EDT
Houston at NY Jets (+8) - Oh God, Gruden talking about Tebow...
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
Texans win, Jets with the points.