Jim Harbaugh has a way with words -- link
Last week
M/L: 7-7
ATS: 5-9
Overall
M/L: 70-48
ATS: 54-59-5
BYE: New England, NY Jets, St. Louis, San Francisco
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1ST
8:20pm EDT
Kansas City at San Diego (-8) - Welp, the Brady Quinn Era in Kansas City sure didn't last long. It's now time for what everyone in America wants -- the Ricky Stanzi Era. Last week I said Rivers would have to derp hardcore in order to lose to Cleveland. Well, the rest of the offense did that for him, as a fumble from Mathews and dropped passes in the receiving corps left them vulnerable to getting steamrolled by TRENT. This might be the worst primetime game the NFL has ever seen. The only good thing about it is I have almost no fantasy stock in these teams, so I can wait until Sunday for any crucial decisions. I guess I'll take the Chargers to win, Chiefs with the points.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4TH
1:00pm EST
Arizona at Green Bay (-11) - After looking utterly lost in Monday night's game, is there any reason to think Arizona's hot start was anything but luck and seeing Philly on the schedule? The team has no confidence, can't stop anybody when they need to, and their offensive line is a joke. Green Bay couldn't cover the spread for reasons undetermined last week, and gave up 300 passing yards to Blaine fucking Gabbert. But the defense is playing adequately, and there's no reason to think the Cardinals will put up much of a fight here. Packers win and cover.
Miami at Indianapolis (+2.5) - I'm sure I'll be branded a fool by our resident Dolphins fan, but I'm still not buying Miami's success. I'm waiting to see how they look after their SEA-NE-@SF games. I'd also like to see Reggie start churning out big yardage totals again. Indy is another surprising 4-3 team I don't like, but they're tough at home and are starting to get healthy. Going with my gut here, Colts in the upset.
Carolina at Washington (-3) - If you like blax under center and terrible, underachieving defenses, this is the game for you! Carolina is the only team I've ever seen play prevent defense up by three or less with under two minutes to play. Marshall and Bennett literally ran the same play over and over on the Cats' secondary, setting up Gould for the game-winner. Washington wasn't even good enough to be in their game last week, as their defense gave Big Ben all day to pick them apart, and their tacklers bounced off Jonathan Dwyer. This is going to be a messy game with a few playground-type touchdowns, and in that case I'll take Griffin over Newton. Redskins win and cover.
Buffalo at Houston (-10) - Both teams are coming off their bye, so no advantages there. Aside from an ugly loss to Green Bay, Houston has looked strong in every game thus far. I like Andre Johnson to have a big day, as this is the healthiest he should be, and no one on Buffalo can really cover him. Houston should also be able to run over the Bills' front seven, which has gotten to the quarterback a little better, but is still below average and awful against the run. Texans win and cover.
Baltimore at Cleveland (+3.5) - Baltimore, also coming off a bye, travels to Cleveland for their rematch with the Browns. They only beat them by 7 points the first time, and now they're on the road and Joe Haden is playing this time around. However, Terrell Suggs is also playing, and I fully expect the Ravens defense to hammer away at Weeden. TRENT and the Browns defense will help keep it close, and I'd love to homer it up, but I just don't see it. Ravens win, Browns with the points.
Denver at Cincinnati (+3.5) - I thought Denver would get better as the season progressed, and so far so good. A tough road game in Cincy will be a good test to see how far they've come, but I'm guessing they'll be up to the task both offensively and defensively. Demaryius is quickly becoming my favorite non-JULIO receiver. But Cincy is coming off their bye, and they have the secondary to contain Denver's weapons. If they can establish the run and get Green separated from Champ for a few plays, I love their chances. Bengals in the upset.
Chicago at Tennessee (+3.5) -
How can anyone hate this guy?! Bears win and cover.
Detroit at Jacksonville (+3.5) - I had pretty much written the Lions off as an average team that crumbled in the clutch. They proved me wrong and then some last week, ending their game with two long TD drives to beat Seattle. But not all is well in Detroit, as Calvin Johnson has had back-to-back clunkers. Look for him to go off against the Jags. With Cleveland's win last week, it's just Carolina and KC challenging Jacksonville for the top pick come April. I think they have the moxie to out-terrible those teams. They've scored a league-worst 14.7 points and 250.9 yards per game. Mark Brunell isn't walking through that door. Tony Boselli isn't walking through that door. Fred Taylor isn't walking through that door. Lions win and cover.
4:05pm EST
Minnesota at Seattle (-5) - Game of the week for me. Both of these teams are so similar, and I give them a lot of credit for building winning clubs on a strong run game and defense. Fuck your franchise quarterbacks, give me Peterson and Skittles any day. I still believe in Minnesota, and I'll blame the short week on how unprepared they looked for Tampa. Peterson and Harvin are about as elite as any RB/WR combo in the league right now. What happens when a team that "finds ways to win" loses two close, winnable games in a row? They start to look very average. I don't trust Russell Wilson to pull a rabbit out in the 4th quarter anymore, but playing in front of the 12th man should help them get a lead, and I like their defense to make it hold up. Seahawks win, Vikings with the points.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1.5) - Oakland got their first road win last week, proving that they haven't completely punted the season just yet. The takeaway from their recent success is Denarius Moore is becoming the big time receiver I thought he would, averaging about 70 yards per game and scoring in four of his six games. Tampa surprised everyone by beating the pants off Minny last week (except for Mike Mayock, that guy knows everything). JASH and company played a near-perfect game, and had a long week to prepare for another tough road game. Vincent Jackson was up to his old tricks, alternating a monster game with a dud. I'm guessing he gets back on track here. Bucs in the mild upset.
4:25pm EST
Pittsburgh at NY Giants (-3) - New York has been very much a Jeckyll and Hyde act this season, smashing at times and looking utterly lost in others. Last week, they top it off by looking like two different teams in one game in Dallas, and win by virtue of Dez Bryant's terrible body control. If this were any other season, they'd be 4-4 right now and the Post would be running stories about how Coughlin has to go. But because they just won a Super Bowl, they're squeaking by in the regular season, Coughlin is safe, and they'll probably lose in the first round of the playoffs. Pittsburgh turned in a dominating performance (albeit against Washington) and if it weren't for their shitty loss to Tennessee, I'd think they were a serious contender in the AFC. Another casualty of the awful Thursday night schedule. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the G-Men come out flat and Big Ben pick them apart, but I think New York is the better team right now. Giants win and cover.
8:20pm EST
Dallas at Atlanta (-4) - Roddy and JULIO versus D A L S? Al and Cris will be cracking jokes and talking up Revolution by the 3rd quarter. Falcons win and cover.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5TH
8:30pm EST
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3.5) - There are two complete disappointments for me in the NFL right now. One is the Jets, who I'll get to next week. The other is Philly, who through some combination of talent, execution, and coaching has turned what should be a playoff favorite into a circus. Normally I'd point to their offensive woes and blame them for not getting McCoy enough touches. But he's averaging a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per catch, both would be career lows. Things don't get much better on defense, as they rank 31st in the league with just 9 sacks. What this tells me is that there's trouble with the players in the trenches, something I never thought I'd say about an Andy Reid-coached team. When they turn the corner on the season (if they do at all) remains to be seen, but torching a woeful Saints defense would be a good start. Yes, New Orleans is a favorite in this game. Why, I do not know. They looked like a minor league team in Denver, and their defense hasn't allowed fewer than 27 points to anyone all season, and the 27 was Kansas City. Philly might be my Achilles heel this season, but I'm sticking with them here, because even Mike Vick can pass all over the Saints. Eagles in the upset.