Since all quarterbacks are going to be concussed or killed in a 16-game season, here is a primer on the backups you will be watching this week.
Byron Leftwich:
Jason Campbell:
Colin Kaepernick:
Nick Foles:
Last week
M/L: 10-3-1
ATS: 8-6
Overall
M/L: 90-52-1
ATS: 69-72-5
BYE: Minnesota, NY Giants, Seattle, Tennessee
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH
8:20pm EST
Miami at Buffalo (-2.5) - Just when I start to believe Miami is a solid team, they stink up the joint at home against the fucking Titans. Rookie quarterbacks will have games like Tannehill did in that one, and I'm trying not to read too much into it. I did say last week that Reggie Bush needs to get on track, and the same holds true now. After trailing the Pats 17-3, Buffalo matched them score for score the rest of the way. But the Bills have a weird habit of being able to put up points on New England recently. Still, Miami's secondary shouldn't be too much of a problem for Fitzpatrick, and we all know Spiller is a fan favorite in these parts. I'm hoping for a shootout, because the last few Thursday night games have been fucking boring. This is a toss-up for me, but it seems like Miami loses every time I pick them, so I'll do Tyche a favor and go with the Bills to win and cover.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18TH
1:00pm EST
Cincinnati at Kansas City (+3.5) - My Christmas caroling last week led to four touchdown passes for Red Rifle and 85 yards and a score for Green. Expect more of the same here, as Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in interceptions, sacks, passing yards, and TDs allowed. My man Brady Quinn still isn't ready to suit up, so this game is already over. Bengals win and cover.
Jacksonville at Houston (-15.5) - I'm actually surprised the spread isn't more than that. In some college games, you get some crazy 30- or 40-point spreads, but the NFL rarely sees anything over two touchdowns. It's warranted here, as my pick for overrated AFC team is looking pretty foolish right about now. In all fairness, Cutty clearly would have done it had he not gotten his shit ruined. If archi or someone else who's good with pro-football-reference could look up all-time worst point differential for a season, I'd think we might be able to project Jacksonville to top that. Texans win and cover.
NY Jets at St. Louis (-3) - Speaking of overrated, has anyone done a worse coaching job this year than Rex Ryan? He's dropped four of their last five, his team appears to make no halftime adjustments, and I'm starting to wonder if the players are just punting the season to get him fired. On the other side, I've already said in this space how much I admire Jeff Fisher and the job he's done, but in overtime I have to question the 3rd and 3 call to run Steven Jackson, then take a penalty to set up a 58-yard field goal. That blunder aside, he's gotten the most out of his team, and I think his pass rush and secondary have a field day with Sanchez and Tebow. The Jets' only chance is putting in Greg McElroy. ALL HE DOES IS WIN. Rams win and cover.
Cleveland at Dallas (-7.5) - I was all excited when I saw this game on the schedule way back during the donation drive. My 7-day ban would be handed down to the worst of the Cowboys fanboys, most likely Leroy. But they've all been banned, are too chickenshit to post, or simply aren't worth my time. What is the world coming to? Anyway, Cleveland is coming off a bye and the dynamic rookie duo of TRENT and WEEDEN has been an improvement over last season, if only by a little. But it gives me hope that they didn't completely mangle the JULIO trade. On the defensive side, Sunday should mark the first time both Ahtyba Rubin and PHIL TAYLOR FROM BAYLOR line up next to each other on the inside. Expect Romo to take at least 15 sacks. Browns in the upset.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (+1.5) - The best team no one is talking about might be Tampa Bay. They have a point differential in the neighborhood of the Ravens, Giants, and Packers. You have to give credit to Schiano (RUTGERS) for changing the culture and using his new offensive weapons well. Carolina has the second worst point differential in the NFC (behind DRAM TRAM, lol) and just can't seem to get 60-minute effort from Newton or their offensive line. Now would be a good time for it, as Tampa's passing defense is the worst in the league. This feels like a must-win for the Cats, or else the walls might start closing in on Rivera, and maybe even Scam. Panthers in the upset.
Arizona at Atlanta (-10) - Welp, the Falcons can finally stop worrying about perfection, and start worrying about their run defense. The Saints, who haven't been able to run on anybody, reeled off 148 yards on the ground against Atlanta last week. Also, JULIO only got five targets. Fuck you, Matt Ryan. Arizona might not be much of a challenge, but their defense is still legit, and it might be a struggle to put up points if you're not going to get the most talented receiver on the planet involved in the offense. Falcons win, Cardinals with the points.
Green Bay at Detroit (+3.5) - A lot of times, I feel like teams on a hot streak don't even want their bye week. Green Bay, fresh off a four-game win streak, just had their week off, but I don't think it will hurt them very much. Rodgers is just as potent as ever, and although Matthews is out, I don't expect it to affect them too badly. Detroit leads the league in passing and doesn't give up a ton of sacks, but it hasn't translated into consistent wins. After a decade of being terrible, then last year's trip to the postseason, it might be time to admit that this incarnation of Detroit doesn't fit either extreme, and is just a mediocre football team. Packers win and cover.
Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5) - IT'S FOLESERIN' TIME! Two awful defenses means this one should be exciting, but it won't be good football. Hopefully Bob Triple can light it up coming off a bye, unless Shanny and Son decide to send him on another fly route into double coverage. Philly could easily win this game giving Shady 25+ carries, but it's Andy Reid, after all. Redskins win, Eagles with the points.
4:05pm EST
New Orleans at Oakland (+4.5) - I'm hearing a troubling amount of hype for a Saints playoff run. Sure, they've won four out of their last five, but other than last week's inevitability of a Falcons loss, who else have they really beat? Now, Oakland isn't a good team by any stretch, but they play well at home and Palmer should torch the New Orleans secondary. I like the Raiders in the upset.
4:25pm EST
San Diego at Denver (-7.5) - I wish the NFL had a D-league, and the two leagues worked like the English Premier League, where the worst team was jettisoned to the minors after every season. I'd be rooting so hard for the Chargers to go in the toilet and see Norval (yes, that's his actual name) and Rivers forced to play in the Arena League or whatever. Alas, there is but one professional football league of consequence, and even if my dream came true, the Jags and Chiefs would have a stranglehold on a one-way ticket to obscurity. As for Denver, I fear my love of Demaryius Thomas is approaching unhealthy levels. Protip for next year's fantasy football draft: look up the NFL draft class for wide receivers from three years prior, find guys with good offensive coaches and quarterbacks and a path to playing time, and move them way the fuck up on your draft board. Broncos win and cover.
Indianapolis at New England (-9) - People tend to hate dynasty teams after a while. And even though the Colts only won one Super Bowl, they were a perennial contender under the Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser. But I don't think people ever really hated the Colts, at least until Manning started doing forty to fifty new commercials every year. Such a stark contrast from New England, who in concert with the Red Sox, went from lovable underdog to go-fuck-yourself territory in the blink of an eye. It can't be the accents, because Ohio River Valley is just as bad as Bostonian. Anyway, I'm anxious to see how Luck does in road games as the weather gets colder. I'm guessing Palo Alto never got down to freezing much during his career there. On the other side, Brady should have a field day, as Indy has the fewest interceptions in the league, and Vontae Davis is still out. Patriots win, Colts with the points.
8:20pm EST
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+3.5) - This line opened at Steelers -4.5, so I guess Big Ben is worth 8 points if you're keeping track of such things. In all fairness, since Roethlisberger was drafted, Pittsburgh is 0-5 against the Ravens when he doesn't start, and 9-4 when he does. Trivia time -- who started those first two losses? Tommy fucking Maddox. That's bad news in Steel Town, because one more hit and Ben's busted rib cage could be raping his vital organs. Ballmurr will instead face Byron Leftwich, who hasn't started since a three-game stint in Tampa in '09, coached by (you guessed it) Raheem Morris. The Ravens are having problems of their own, as the injury report includes most of their productive players; Suggs, Torrey Smith, Reed, Jacoby Jones, Ngata, Ray-Ray, Upshaw, and Jimmy Smith. Who they can get on the field will go a long way toward securing a win here, but I'm guessing it won't take much to shut Pittsburgh down. The real loser here is NBC, who had their prime time heavyweight prize fight reduced to one of those Friday night ESPN featherweight pieces of shit. Ravens win and cover.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH
8:30pm EST
Chicago at San Francisco (-5) - If Cutler plays, upset time. If not, I'm not even fucking watching this garbage. 49ers win and cover I guess.