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The best.
Last week
M/L: 10-5
ATS: 6-9
Overall
M/L: 72-35
ATS: 50-54-3
Bye week: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24TH
8:30pm EDT, NFL Network
Carolina at Tampa Bay (+6) - The Cats have quietly put together a solid season, especially on defense. They're only giving up 13.8 points and 302.2 yards per game, good for 2nd and 3rd in the league, respectively. In the past I've highlighted Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy, but safety Mike Mitchell is playing well also. Offensively they're not as reliant on Cam to put up huge numbers, which sucks for fantasy owners. But the good news is they've found a little balance from other major contributors, and they're really taking care of the football. They could sneak into the wild card conversation pretty easily if the defense keeps it up and they avoid turnovers. I don't have much to say about Tampa other than I hope Greg Schiano gives us a moment like Jim Mora and Dennis Green did before they got canned. Mike Glennon targeted Vincent Jackson 22 times on Sunday, so you might want to cover him. With Dougie Fresh sidelined, I don't think this will be very close. Panthers win and cover.
BONUS THURSDAY NIGHT CONTENT: Jon Bois created 44 Greg Schianos.
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Thank you, Jon. Thank you.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27TH
1:00pm EDT, CBS
Cleveland at Kansas City (-7.5) -
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IT'S CANDLEIN' TIME! It only seemed like the Weeden Era was over with Brian Hoyer (lol) but now it's legit over. Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron are amazing talents, but with the quarterback situation such as it is, it might be time to sell high on them in fantasy. At least the young defense is progressing as expected. KC had a little more trouble with Case Keenum and a depleted Texans team than I thought, but a win is a win. Alex Smith's QBR is exactly average at 50.0 and that just proves how dumb that statistic is. Defensively, they have been amazing, and it shouldn't be too much of a stretch to think they're going to wallop Campbell and company. Chiefs win and cover.
Miami at New England (-6.5) - Fool me once, Joe Philbin. With a stout defense, an easy schedule, and a young quarterback to mold into an offensive wizard, I was buying on Miami big-time coming into the season. But after three straight losses, I'm pumping the breaks. Ryan Tannehill committed all three turnovers in the loss to Buffalo, and that is just inexcusable. I saw a 10-win team, and now I think they'll struggle to get to .500 in this weak-ass division. New England, meanwhile, has problems of their own, losing to the fucking Jets after being up 21-10 at halftime. The run game picked up 4.5 yards per carry, so of course SATB dropped back to pass 50 times and failed to throw a single touchdown. But at least Gronk is back, amirite? Still, Belichick is ruthless after a loss, and I think they pick up an easy W here. Patriots win and cover.
Buffalo at New Orleans (-11.5) - Thad Lewis also did not throw a touchdown on Sunday, but thanks to an early Deion by the defense and Dan Carpenter's last-minute boot, Buffalo still came away with a win. I'll be honest, I have no idea how they have three wins, against three decent teams no less. So I won't be betting on them anytime soon. New Orleans is coming off a bye. And at home. And also really good. Saints win and cover.
1:00pm EDT, FOX
Dallas at Detroit (-3) - Well, it took long enough. DALS now has sole possession of the NFC Shiteast (pronounced shittiest). They've been decimated by injuries, but as long as Romo, Dez, and Witten are healthy, I like their chances of scoring some points. For Detroit, Fatt Stafford is off to another great stat-padding start, but since it's after week 2 Reggie Bush is probably hurt or tired or crying about losing a Kardashian or whatever. And where Dallas's defense is hurt, Detroit's is just bad. These teams are pretty even, and I'll usually pick a home winner, but Jim Schwartz is still an idiot. Cowboys in the upset.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-5.5) - I hate picking NFC Shiteast games. No one should watch or care about these, but here I am, feeling like I have to write words about Eli, Vick, Coughlin, and the like. Well I'm not gonna do it anymore. Fuck these teams. Eagles win, Giants with the points.
San Francisco at Jacksonville (+16.5) - After a pedestrian 1-2 start, San Fran has reeled off four impressive wins, and now gets what amounts to two bye weeks in a row. Before, Kaepernick seemed to rush out of necessity, but against Tennessee he looked more comfortable running by design. I expect him to be one of the best QBs in the league in the second half of the season. Jacksonville, fresh off the high of covering against Denver, got stomped by PRIVS and the Chargers. And have you seen MJD's team picture?
Guy looks like he has the same personal trainer as Ashy Larry. 49ers win and cover.
4:05pm EDT, CBS
NY Jets at Cincinnati (-6.5) - There's nothing Rex Ryan loves more than beating the Patriots (except for jacking off on lady feet, but that's a given). A good pass rush and secondary go a long way in this league, and Rex was able to hold the Pats to an AR12-esque 1-for-12 on 3rd down. They will be a good test for Andy Dalton and the Bengals offensive line. Dalton's been remarkably efficient recently, finishing drives in the red zone, spreading his targets around, and taking care of the football. And even though the defense didn't record a sack against Stafford, they were credited with 7 "QB hits". With all the attention Geno Atkins gets from blockers, the rest of the front seven has played really well. I love the balance Cincy has, and they're one of my top four teams in football right now with Denver, KC, and Seattle. Bengals win and cover.
Pittsburgh at Oakland (+2.5) - Pittsburgh's back, baby! And by back, I mean barely surviving by riding their average defense. LeVeon Bell has brought some much-needed life to the run game, but I still don't see them scoring enough points to compete with most teams. Oakland is coming off a bye but is a home dog here. The offensive line is still shit, but Pryor and McFadden have enough big play potential to do some damage. Raiders in the upset.
4:25pm EDT, FOX
Washington at Denver (-12.5) - Washington's back, baby! Never mind the fact that they allowed 41 points to Josh McCown and the Bears offense, or that on the season they're 30th in points and 25th in yards allowed per game. They'll still make the playoffs, right? Coming off a loss, the Tyrannical Touchdown Tosser is going to go all
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on the Washington Indigenous Peoples of North America. Broncos win and cover.
Atlanta at Arizona (-2.5) - How the mighty have fallen. My pick for an appearance in the NFC Championship game, now the Falcons are dogs to Arizona. The good news is they got a big win last week, and Steven Jackson is close to returning. The bad news is no matter when SJax gets back, they can't block for him, and the defense is still shit. 'Zona hung in there against the Seahawks, but just couldn't get within the spread. Against the Falcons secondary, Carson Palmer should have a good day, and their own defensive backs won't have to contend with JULIO and probably Rod White. Still, I have to think Atlanta has a little more fight in them, and I still trust Matt Ryan more than Palmer. Falcons in the upset.
8:30pm EDT, NBC
Green Bay at Minnesota (+9) - Like I said about the Chiefs, a win is a win. Green Bay won ugly in Baltimore two weeks ago, but things got back to normal against Cleland in a big way. Even without two of their best three receivers, Rodgers had a great day. And now that he's facing a team that failed to pick off Eli fucking Manning, expect more of the same. The JASH Freeman Experience is one of incompletions, with balls sailing high and out of reach of pedestrian receivers. Mercifully, it looks like he'll sit this week with a concussion, but Adrian "All-Pay" Deterson isn't practicing with a bum hamstring. Minny usually plays Green Bay close, but this is going to get ugly. Packers win and cover.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 28TH
8:30pm EDT, ESPN
Seattle at St. Louis (+10.5) - Seattle is the best team in the NFC, and after what the Colts did last week, their loss week 5 in Indy isn't nearly as troubling. What is troubling is RussWils putting the ball on the turf, and that could be a factor with the offensive line still ailing and St. Louis's excellent pass rush. The Rams have troubles of their own, as Slingin' Sammy B will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Kellen Clemens of Jets "fame" will get the nod, and he'll need a ton of help to get the offense going against Seattle's secondary. With Bradford, I actually thought this would be a decent game. Now, just lol. Seahawks win and cover.