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But I got the medicine...
Spoiler: show
BIG PROPS TO THE COWBOYS FOR COVERING +3 THOUGH, YOU GUYS ARE AWESOME!
Last week
M/L: 10-3
ATS: 10-3
Overall
M/L: 82-38
ATS: 60-57-3
Bye week: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Francisco
SCURRSDAY, SPOOKTOBER 31ST
8:30pm EDT, NFL Network
Cincinnati at Miami (+2.5) - Maybe only Heady and I have noticed but Andy Dalton is on fire lately. Over his last three games, he's had a passer rating of 126.0, with 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. More importantly, Cincy is 3-0 over that stretch and 6-2 overall, and right in the conversation with Denver, Indy, and Kansas City for the best in the AFC. Miami, on the other hand, is in an absolute tailspin (finspin?) losing four straight after letting a 17-3 halftime lead over the Pats slip away. Their 2nd half drives; missed FG, fumble, punt, punt, interception, blocked FG, interception. That's not just ugly, that's Sam Cassell ugly (Hey everybody, the NBA is back! 9 months of BronBron, y'all). Once again, Tannehill committed all three turnovers, as he was under duress all game long. This one is a game Miami absolutely has to have, and I usually go with home dogs in these situations. But on a short week facing a red hot Red Rifle, I can't pick them. Bengals win and cover. CAN'T WAIT TO SEE THE GIODUDE SIGN, BRAH!
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD
1:00pm EST, CBS
Kansas City at Buffalo (+3) - A lot has been made of Kansas City's weak schedule thus far, playing five home games and feasting on the NFC East in the early going. But all they can do is continue to rack up the "W"s and play punishing defense. With all the Peyton Manning talk, the real MVP of the league might be Jamaal Charles, who already has over 1000 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns. Buffalo has been nothing if not consistent, scoring between 20 and 24 points every week until last Sunday, only putting up 17 in the loss to New Orleans. Kiko Alonso has been a revelation a linebacker, but with CJ Spiller still suffering with a high ankle sprain, the offense has been less than dynamic. Much like Miami was my sleeper pick out of the AFC East this season, Buffalo could fit the mold next year if they can get EJ Manuel healthy. Right now, there's not much reason to like the Bills. Chiefs win and cover.
Tennessee at St. Louis (+3) - I'm looking forward to seeing Jake Locker back in action, because without him the Titans were just plain boring. I worked a 12-hour shift last night, got up early to go to a doctor's appointment, and I just feel asleep trying to think about things to say here. Chris Johnson is really bad. He has two big catch-and-runs for TDs, for 49 and 66 yards. Otherwise he has 418 yards from scrimmage on 128 touches (3.27 yards per touch) and zero touchdowns. Now, Tennessee's O-line ranks dead last in power run blocking and 29th in overall run blocking by FO, but it's sort of a chicken-and-egg thing going on here. The Rams have problems of their own in the run game, but at least they're protecting the quarterback a lot more effectively. The problem is, that quarterback is now Kellen Clemens, and he flailed about helplessly against the Seahawks last night. But that pass rush, boy howdy, is it good. 10 QB hits and 7 sacks is awesome, I don't care what O-line you're facing, and against a mobile guy like RussWils it's even more impressive. I'm looking for Robert Quinn and Chris Long to keep up the good work and get after the Hurt Locker in a big way. Sure, all their points could come from Zuerlein, but it'll be enough. Rams in the upset.
San Diego at Washington (PK) - I'm still not terribly high on PRivs or San Diego, but it's time to face the fact that they're 4-3 and will be in the mix for a wild card. Old Man Gates might be a shadow of his former self, but Keenan Allen adds a spark on the outside to get the passing game going, and Danny Woodhead is doing his best Welker-out-of-the-backfield impression. (Seriously, how hard is it to cover a short white guy running four yards and then breaking on an in- or out-route? FFS.) The Washington Indigenous Peoples looked like they were going to pull off the impossible in Denver on Sunday, until four straight picks amid 31 unanswered points squashed that pipe dream. The "good" news is Bobert Triple is probable to play here, but the bad news is teams still need to field defensive and special teams units in the NFL. Washington's special teams is the third worst ever through week 8, according to the FO post archi made in the last thread. It's now deep enough in the season where I don't see Bobby Triangle and the Butler getting any unexpected help, so they will continue to languish in almost-decent territory until the Rams snatch up their top-10 draft pick. Chargers in the pick'em.
1:00pm EST, FOX
Minnesota at Dallas (-10.5) - Looking at the final score, you might think, "See, I told ya, Minny always plays Green Bay tough!" But the game was 41-17 with five minutes left, and AR12 carved them up to the tune of a 130.6 passer rating and 98.6 QBR. Adrian Deterson continues to play well, but being on pace for just over 1300 yards is hardly impressive for him. I really hope we get to see another JASH Freeman start, not on national TV, because I think he really could get the passing game going without the spotlight. At least he's better than Checkdown Ponder. Defensively, they're 30th in both yards and points allowed per game. Oy. I think we all know what happened to D A L S last week, and what hurt me more than anything was finding myself rooting for Fatt Stafford and Jim Schwartz. One thing I will say is that I was hesitant to acknowledge Sean Lee in the past. I figured he's just the next overrated white linebacker in a big market to get way too much press. But the cat can fucking ball, man. I'll admit when I'm wrong (TRENT still has some time, fuckers) and if he didn't look like Scotty McCreery's slow older brother he'd be a superstar. Anyway, Dez will get like 20 targets and crush in this game. Cowboys win and cover.
Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5) - "I still trust Matt Ryan" are words I wrote last week. lol. And it's not like he's being forced into bad decisions, Atlanta is third in FO's pass protection rankings. Without JULIO and Rod White, he's... oh... oh God... no 7-foot tall receivers... he's LAST YEAR'S PHIL RIVERS. Shit, I'm really sorry, Moss. Carolina has been the best team no one's talking about, and last Thursday Cam Newton continued his excellent streak of taking care of the football en route to a comfortable win. I still think they're another player away from being great offensively, but that defense is sick nasty. I could highlight a different player every week, and I've talked about Kuechly, Greg Hardy, and Mike Mitchell. Last week it was Charles Johnson with two sacks joining in on the fun. It's a credit to Ron Rivera and Sean McDermott that the unit has come together so well this season. Panthers win and cover.
New Orleans at NY Jets (+5.5) - Welp, much like in my Dallas blurb about Sean Lee, I was wrong about the Saints. I thought their defensive woes were more personnel than coaching, and that unit would hold them back from being a playoff team. But they're actually tied for 9th in the league in passing yards allowed per game, and when you can cover the field and get stops for Drew Brees, good things will happen. Personally, I'd like to see more consistency from Marques Colston, but that has nothing to do with fantasy football, no sir. Rex Ryan and the Jets meandered through their early schedule to a surprising 4-3 record, and then the Bengals showed them what a good team can do against them. New Orleans is also a good team, and the results should be about the same. Saints win and cover.
4:05pm EST, FOX
Philadelphia at Oakland (-1) - As much as I'd like to say "LOL CHIP KELLY OFFENSE" you can't really fault the team for struggling with Matt fucking Barkley calling the shots. Nick Foles should be back as the starter here, but what I can fault Chip Kelly for is trying to run the high-tempo read option with two quarterbacks made of glass. Oh, and FredEx got three years in the clink. So... Raiders? Three of their four losses have been to the Colts, Broncos, and Chiefs. Coming up on their schedule are the Eagles, Giants, Texans, Titans, Cowboys, and Jets. I could see them squeezing a winning season out of Terrelle Pryor yet, despite not doing anything terribly well. What's more important than wins this season is Pryor's development and some confidence in the coaching staff, as the franchise moves away from the final, crazy years of Al Davis's life. Raiders win and cover.
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-16.5) - Jacksonville on a bye and nowhere to go for Eliminator? Look no further, football fans! Hope you didn't use them week 3 against the aforementioned Jags! Seahawks win and cover.
4:25pm EST, CBS
Pittsburgh at New England (-6.5) - Remember when the Steelers won two straight and people were actually talking about them making the playoffs? lol. Meanwhile, New England took a while to wake up against Miami, but they finally wised up and ran the ball 37 times for 152 yards and 2 touchdowns. Without his weapons in the passing game, Shit-Ass Tom Brady will need to lean on that run game more and more. I'm sure Gronk will go back to Gronking at some point, but everybody needs game reps, just ask Bobert Triple. Anyway, Pittsburgh stinks but they play teams close, so the pick is the Patriots to win, Steelers with the points.
Baltimore at Cleveland (+2.5) - The NFC East is comically bad, but the AFC North is just plain boring. Coming into the season, you might think that Ray Rice and Trent Richardson would be the type of dynamic backs to drive their teams, but what we're left with is Joe Flacco and Jason Campbell treading water. At least we get to see some defensive studs like Joe Haden, Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, D'Qwell Jackson... eh, who am I kidding? Only Xaj and I are gonna watch this stinkburger. Ravens win, Browns with the points, with a score of 3-2. Don't miss this thriller!
8:30pm EST, NBC
Indianapolis at Houston (+2.5) - Two good teams, both coming off a bye, on Sunday night? Awesome, sign me up! Oh wait, that's right, the Texans suck now. After the season, the league should make Houston play Atlanta to see which team fell off a cliff the hardest. Colts win and cover.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4TH
8:30pm EST, ESPN
Chicago at Green Bay (-10.5) -
Sorry buddy. I wanted to see Cutty smash too. AR12 leads the league in yards per attempt, which means he's doing his work with almost 100 fewer attempts than Stafford and Peyton right now (to be fair, he's had a bye and they haven't, but that's a huge difference). The big surprises when I look at these two teams are how bad Chicago's defense has been, and how good Green Bay is running the ball. Chicago is coming off a bye, and I think Josh McCown can play decent, but this would be way more fun with Cutty. Packers win, Bears with the points.