2014-15 NFL Week 6: Making History! Also PRIVSMVP

[Bregor]

I have to brag about my Cleland Browns for a minute. Their 25-point comeback in Tennessee last week was the largest by a road team in the history of the NFL. They scored 14 points in the final seven minutes as Brian Football hooked up with third-year receiver Travis Benjamin twice to secure the win. Once again, largest comeback ever by a road team. Fuck yeah Browns!

I know you don't care. Here, have some PRIVSMVP:

LEADING THE LEAGUE WITH 84.8 QBR



LEADING THE LEAGUE WITH 116.3 PASSER RATING



LEADING THE LEAGUE IN COMPLETION PERCENTAGE AND YARDS PER ATTEMPT



LEADING THE LEAGUE IN BOLO TIES







Last week:

M/L: 9-6
ATS: 7-8

Overall:

M/L: 43-33
ATS: 34-41-1


Bye Week: Kansas City, New Orleans


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9TH

8:25pm EDT, CBS / NFL Network

Indianapolis at Houston (+3) - The Colts have won three straight and are back atop the AFC South, so it's all good right? Not exactly. Last week they dominated in some ways (7-for-15 on third down versus Baltimore's 1-for-11, out-gaining the Ravens 422 to 287) but also committed four turnovers and looked sloppy when they had every chance to put the game away. Ahmad Bradshaw seems to have taken over lead back duties, but even he lost a key fumble and will still split touches with TRENT. The good news is the defense is coming together nicely as second-year end Bjoern Werner had two sacks, and they continue to have one of the best special teams duos in the league with Pat McAfee and Adam Vinatieri. But I still feel like they're a mediocre team. Speaking of, Houston's defense has really underwhelmed me so far. I know missing Clowney hurts, but they're 26th in yards allowed per game, and they haven't exactly been facing offensive juggernauts either. Arian Foster is chugging along, and Fitz is a decent placeholder, but they're not going to win too many shootouts. I gave them too much credit last week, but I still think they can hang around. Colts win, Texans with the points.


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12TH

1:00pm EDT, CBS

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-1.5) - I'm not exactly sure what the problem was for the Steelers down in Jacksonville last week. They had good yardage numbers, good 3rd down efficiency, and only one turnover, but still only managed 17 points on the Jags. Seven penalties for 50 yards isn't outrageous either. Guessing it was just bad luck. Big Ben, Le'Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown continue to be consistent offensively, and Cleland's defense has been piss poor so I expect that to continue. Not hitting the panic button on Cincy just yet, but I feel like the Steelers have a shot at taking a step forward during the season and maybe winning the division. As for Cleland, the good news is Ben Tate is back healthy and averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Add in Brian Hoyer's 97.7 passer rating and the emergence of Travis Benjamin at wideout and you get a not-terrible offense, which is something of a novelty for the Browns. But the defense, which I expected to be the team's strength, has been especially shitty. They're 31st in both yards allowed per game and Football Outsiders' Defense DVOA. Joe Haden might be having his worst season, and they don't get to the quarterback enough. When these teams met in Cleland five weeks ago, Pittsburgh was up 27-3 at halftime before a furious Cleland comeback. I think this will be a much more boring affair, with Pittsburgh putting the clamps down early. Steelers in the upset.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4) - Locker is doubtful, but Jags are still shit. TEN-4 and under-42.5 both look like FREE MONEY. Titans win and cover.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay (+3.5) - I was sort of buying into the Ravens being a playoff team. They had three solid wins and a tough loss to Cincy. What I forgot was that Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco, and other than his extraordinarily lucky Super Bowl run, every time he tricks you into thinking he's a good quarterback he makes sure to snap you back to reality. CJ Mosley is balling out on defense and they're stopping the run, but he's not getting much help from the secondary. Anyway Flacco might have problems with a Bucs secondary that picked off Drew Brees three times last week. They don't scare anyone with Mike Glennon at quarterback and a pedestrian rushing attack, but outside of a blowout loss in Atlanta they've been competitive in every game. They're not good by any stretch of the imagination, but I also don't feel good betting against them. Ravens win, Buccaneers with the points.

Denver at NY Jets (+8) - This is what I imagine Scott Hanson on NFL RedZone is like every time he shows me a Peyton-to-DEMARYIUS clip:



So magical. Meanwhile the Jets are dead last in passing offense, and I hate to deal in absolutes but it is really, really difficult to win NFL games in 2014 if you average under 200 yards passing per game. It's not like Paul Johnson and Ken Niumatalolo are on everyone's coaching wish list, after all. Anyway, this should go as expected. Broncos win and cover.

1:00pm EDT, FOX

Detroit at Minnesota (-2) - No Megatron and yes to Teddy Throwsevelt means that Minny is favored. Don't be fooled. Lions in the upset.

New England at Buffalo (+3) - NFL talking heads are fucking stupid (myself included, I guess). After one bad game, the entire world thought, "WELL IT'S TIME TO COUNT OUT TOUCHDOWN TOM!" Then the Pats put a curbstomping on Cincy and everyone it all, "TOUCHDOWN TOM IS BACK, BABY!" Neither of those trains of thought are true, as Tom Brady is the same old Touchdown Tom he's always been, but the team around him is crumbling. They just happened to get national TV Bengals instead of normal Bengals last week. They do have an excellent secondary, which might matter if Buffalo threw the ball. Actually, that's not fair, since KYLE MOTHER FUCKING ORTON lead four scoring drives in a come-from-behind victory in Detroit. GAZE UPON THIS GOD AMONG QUARTERBACKS:



It's like if Mike Hagerty (link) got gastric bypass surgery but he's just as sweaty and goony as he was as a fatman. Kyle Orton is a national treasure. Thank you, Buffalo, for bringing him back to us. Also, please make CJ Spiller productive again. Thanks. Bills in the upset.

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7) - I'm actually surprised by this line a bit. The Panthers gutted out a tough win against Chicago last week and are a respectable 3-2, and Cincy is coming off their evisceration at the hands of Touchdown Tom. Speaking of having to do more with an inferior supporting cast, Cam Newton gets almost no credit for keeping the Cats afloat the last few seasons. I can only imagine how big of a star he'd be if he played in a bigger market than Charlotte, or if he was a lurchy white dude with a shitty beard (seriously, fuck Andrew Luck). Carolina is alone atop the NFC South standings, and it's there without their trademark defense. They still pressure the quarterback even without Greg Hardy, but the run defense has been a bit leaky. Look for GIODUDE and Jeremy Hill to carry the load. Hopefully the Burfict Storm will play, but they could use more from Geno Atkins, as he has no sacks or tackles for loss yet this season. Vegas is giving Cincy a mulligan, and I guess I will too, but seven points is a lot against a quality opponent. Bengals win, Panthers with the points.

Green Bay at Miami (+3) - Thursday games have been a sloppy mess, but I'm pretty sure Green Bay would have rolled Minnesota on any day. Now, shutting down Christian Ponder and Matt Asiata isn't anything to brag about, but it was nice to see a good old-fashioned Packers explosion. The only thing that gives me pause here is Miami is coming off a bye and getting healthy. It's an interesting game between a known commodity and a team looking for its identity. I could see Miami shutting down Lacy and making it interesting, but Rodgers-to-Nelson is too strong. Packers win and cover.

4:05pm EDT, CBS

San Diego at Oakland (+7) -



Chargers win and cover.

4:25pm EDT, FOX

Chicago at Atlanta (-3) - I honestly did not think both of these teams would start 2-3. Chicago's problems stem from consistency on both sides of the ball. Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte have been surprisingly tepid, but Marshall remains a strong red zone target and I'm sure they'll get rolling in the yardage department soon. Kyle Fuller has been great and a leading rookie of the year candidate, and Willie Young not only has five sacks but is also trying to recruit Donkey Kong Suh to Chicago. Things should turn around for da Bears. As for Atlanta, I'm not so sure. Their offensive line is a turnstile, the defense is atrocious, and all the good vibes I got from Hard Knocks have evaporated. I still love me some JULIO though. In fact, Atlanta being 2nd in the league in passing is a testament to the strength of the Ryan-to-JULIO connection. I'd say take the over but right now it's 53.5 (!) so avoid that. I'll stay on the CUTTY bandwagon and take Bears in the upset.

Dallas at Seattle (-8) - This is it. This is the beginning of the end of the Cowboys' season. "Hold My" Dick Sherman is going to bend Dezzy B over and spank him like he's Adrian Peterson's son who just spilled a huge cup of purple drink. One team has a ginger nerd as their coach, and one team has Swaggy Pete:



Seahawks win and cover.

Washington at Arizona (-3.5) - Carson Palmer still has ebola but even the Stanton can handle Washington. Cardinals win and cover.

8:30pm EDT, NBC

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5) - After three straight wins, the G-Men are getting a lot of love from Vegas here. Do they trust Eli? Or that defense? I can't think of any reason to really get excited about New York right now. Meanwhile Chip Kelly is going through a bit of a sophomore slump and letting bad teams hang around. Philly is only 14th in yardage offense so far and really needs to get Shady McCoy on track. All the normal pitfalls of a prime time NFC East game apply—it will be horribly unwatchable and Cris Collinsworth will say Darren Sparkles is "dynamic" about fifty times. You've been warned. Eagles win and cover.


MONDAY, OCTOBER 13TH

8:30pm EDT, ESPN

San Francisco at St. Louis (+3.5) - For a team that's had as much success as San Fran over the last few years, there's been so much turmoil for them in the media. First Jim Harbaugh is rumored to be traded to Cleland. Then he's being considered for the Michigan job. Now his players want him fired. Ray McDonald probably beat up a trick but there aren't many details and no video (yet). Oh yeah and Aldon Smith is a drunk and possibly a psychopath. But they just keep winning. Meanwhile, shocking stat of the day; the St. Louis Rams only have one sack as a team in five games. Without Chris Long on his opposite site, I guess teams are triple-teaming Robert Quinn all day. Makes sense to me. I like what Austin Davis and Brian Quick have going, but San Fran's defense is still too solid to really think they can pull off an upset here. 49ers win and cover.

[Krandor]

All hail our PRIVS overlord.

[Xajii]

what exactly did flacco do to make you think he sucks this week? did you see the pressure that was on him every single down? it was worse than last season even. we have a UDFA playing the most important position on our line, of coruse flacco's gonna look like shit when there is no pocket to speak of

he almost won that game for em despite it, oof. what a mess out there. monroe can't get back soon enough

there are some QB who can look good despite a pretty bad o-line, like big ben or russ wils - flacco isn't one of them, he needs a pocket, the entire team does. the WR don't get open fast at all, our only TE worth a shit down the middle for quick passes is out for the season, and none of our RB are really good at the screen yet. its pretty much the same exact issue brady has had.

[Abandon]

Dallas at Seattle (-8) - This is it. This is the beginning of the end of the Cowboys' season. "Hold My" Dick Sherman is going to bend Dezzy B over and spank him like he's Adrian Peterson's son who just spilled a huge cup of purple drink. One team has a ginger nerd as their coach, and one team has Swaggy Pete:

omg looooool

[Bregor]

what exactly did flacco do to make you think he sucks this week? did you see the pressure that was on him every single down? it was worse than last season even. we have a UDFA playing the most important position on our line, of coruse flacco's gonna look like shit when there is no pocket to speak of

It's more the whole season honestly. Whatever is going on with him, Torrey Smith, and the playcalling has got to get fixed. And yeah he was under a ton of pressure in the pocket, they handled CLE and CAR pretty well but IND just had their number.

[Xajii]

It's more the whole season honestly. Whatever is going on with him, Torrey Smith, and the playcalling has got to get fixed. And yeah he was under a ton of pressure in the pocket, they handled CLE and CAR pretty well but IND just had their number.

the rest of his games have been pretty good, well except the first half in cincy. i really am fine with the play calling although i am curious to see if they can change some plays to account for the fact that all a team has to do is rush the LT to win. torrey smith has looked pretty lost and it is a serious issue, a huge part of the kubiak offense is being able to capitalize on that go runner, and he's just not getting the separation.

the only thing ive seen in flaccos game that im not liking right now is his release time, and i think again part of that is guys not getting open, which isnt really surprising if you look at who's on the team.... steve smith is the only one he can implicitly trust right now. that being said flacco should be making the defense have to guess more than he is by getting it out quick to a guy in the flat, which SHOULD be easy enough for this team to run. i've seen forsett do it

edit: re - the pressure: thats because we had our really good LT healthy in cleveland and in carolina they i dont think realized what they could do to abuse the fact that there was a UDFA out there, and there was no tape on the guy at all, and i don't think they kenw he would be in there until halfway through the week so they couldnt exactly game plan for it. i can guarantee the trouble with pressure will continue though

[archibaldcrane]

I'm terrified of the Dolphins pass rush eating our O-line for lunch.

[Cail]

AJ Green carted off at practice

[Abandon]

oh hohoho

[Bregor]

Shit-Ass Tom Bardy beat the Bungles so hard they're getting injured three days later

[Headspace]

AJ Green carted off at practice

He's carted because medical facilities are a block away from practice field. He was able to walk with a limp.

It still seems bad apparently. Gio said he thinks AJ will play. Hues gameplan still revolving around AJ apparently.

[Xajii]

Heard that he fucked up his toe some more, threw off his shoes in disgust, etc. Must be really frustrating.

[tyven]

Maybe if Dalton weren't so terrible Green could stay healthy, I give it a few weeks until Christmas is cancelled

[Cail]

Megatron has the dreaded high ankle sprain

[Cail]

Linebacker Vontaze Burfict was back at practice, and in full participation, after missing the last two games with a concussion.

[Cail]

Derock, any update on harrison smith?

[tyven]

He's a white safety

[Cail]

He's a white safety

And puts up points in IDP

[Bregor]

Adrian Peterson has really pissed off Roger Goodell now. He admits that he "smoked a little weed."

http://www.tmz.com/2014/10/09/adrian...be-rearrested/

LIFETIME BAN

[Cail]

They arrested the laser pointer guy

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11...oit-lions-game