We usually wait until Thanksgiving for Cowboys Super Bowl week, when they play their biggest game of the year to a country full of diabetic sloths parked in front of their television sets celebrating the brutal massacre of indigenous peoples for the second time in two months. America!
But this year, the country's lovable losers went to Seattle and shocked the world by running, throwing, and hold my dicking all over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. If it sounds unfamiliar for Dallas, that's because it is. They haven't started 5-1 since 2007, the height of the Terrell Owens era. They went 13-3 and looked primed for a deep playoff run, until their first playoff game when they fell victim to Eli Manning Bullshit©. Now the national conversation is once again about Dallas and the playoffs. Can they stay healthy and avoid collapse? If they do make the playoffs, can Tony Romo shrug off his past mistakes? Normally I'd just assume Dallas would retreat faster than a blonde twentysomething after Jerry shoots his wad. But this year, I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. Either way, it will be entertaining as hell.
Last week:
M/L: 11-3-1
ATS: 7-7-1
Overall:
M/L: 54-36-1
ATS: 41-48-2
HOW THE FUCK DID CLIPBOARD JESUS NOT THROW A SINGLE TOUCHDOWN AND COVER AGAINST JACKSONVILLE?
Fuck you, Clipboard Jesus.
Bye Week: Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16TH
8:25pm EDT, CBS / NFL Network
NY Jets at New England (-9.5) - New York is 29th or lower in total yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passer rating, and turnover differential. Despite this, their defense still rates pretty well in everything except points allowed, which I still blame on the anemic offense and field position. He doesn't exactly have a ton of talent to work with, but I have no idea how Marty Mornhinweg still has a job. At this point I might just try Sheldon Richardson at fullback and see if he can bowl people over BEEFTANK-style. Three weeks ago, everyone counted out Touchdown Tom and the Patriots have scored 80 points in the two games since. The injuries are piling up, but it finally looks like Brandon LaFell is with the program. One of my brothers-in-law is a Carolina fan and I asked him why they dumped LaFell given the lack of receivers on the roster. He said, "It just didn't work out." No, my brother-in-law is not Jeff Ireland, but that still seemed like a pretty poor answer. A big target with speed on the outside is just what Touchdown Tom needs to open things up for Gronk and Vereen, the latter of which could vault himself into RB1 status for all you fantasy dorks out there with Stevan Ridley done for the year. Regardless, this should be an easy win for Touchdown Tom, and it would be my Eliminator pick (if I didn't already use the Pats for week 3). But Thursday games have been a hellscape of terribleness, so who the fuck knows. Patriots win, Jets with the points.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19TH
1:00pm EDT, CBS
Cleveland at Jacksonville (+5) - In the last thread there was a brief discussion of the Browns starting 6-2, given their next three opponents are the Jags, Raiders, and Bucs. Funny thing is, I've actually been betting against them all season. But why? Their innate Cleland-ness? Well, the defense has under-performed, especially against the run. Picking up possession receiver Andrew Hawkins has been a good find, but they still don't have a legit outside threat in the passing game. Terrance West has been a disappointment, but that shouldn't matter as Ben Tate is healthy again and Isaiah Crowell is showing what made him a top collegiate talent. Is it time to believe in the Cleve? The only thing to talk about with Jacksonville is Blake Bortles, who despite a 4-to-7 TD-INT ratio has shown the ability to get the ball down-field accurately. If Justin Blackmon ever gets himself together, they could form a pretty potent duo. But that won't matter on Sunday. Browns win and cover oh God I can't believe I just wrote that.
Tennessee at Washington (-5.5) - I hate these football games that look like a fight between Timmy and Jimmy. Yes I know I just wrote about Cleveland and Jacksonville, shut up. But the Titans are just sort of a vanilla brand of terrible, while the Redskins show signs of being half-decent but manage to fuck up in the worst possible ways. I dunno if Arvin just hasn't seen any Washington games this year but Kirk Cousins loves throwing the ball directly at defenders who are standing still. Did no one play zone in the Big Ten? The one thing I can say is the Redskins dispatch their only inferior opponent (Jags) handily, so maybe they'll cruise to an easy win here. But TEN+5.5 looks an awful lot like FREE MONEY to me. Redskins win, Titans with the points.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3) - I would love to pick the Bengals to pull off the upset here, but AJ Green's status just makes me nervous. We saw some vintage Marvin Lewising at the end of last week's tie. For a guy who made his money coaching defense you'd think he never saw the QB keep a read option before. They allowed the Cats to go 8-for-17 on 3rd down and 2-for-2 on 4th down. One or two more stops could have made for an easy win. The good news for Cincy is Gio Bernard is still a fucking boss. After an 0-2 start, the Colts are cruising right along and the collection of sportswriters' boners over Andrew Luck is seriously threatening to put Cialis out of business. To Indy's credit, I did not expect their defense to be this adequate minus Robert Mathis. But let's not get carried away considering three of their wins were in their own terrible division. If AJ is back in I might revisit this, but for now the pick is the Colts win and cover.
Miami at Chicago (-3) - Poor Miami. They have a 4-point lead with four minutes to go, pick up two first downs, and still lose. The play calling on that last drive was suspect, and once Green Bay got the ball back they allowed AR12 to convert a 4th-and-10 en route to a touchdown. Now Knowshon Moreno is out, and they sit 2.5 games back of New England with some tough games coming up (@CHI, v.SD, @DET). It seemed like a decent bet that Ryan Tannehill could break out this season, but he's putting up similar numbers to last season and has a mediocre 48.6 QBR. Chicago is 0-2 at home this year but had a complete performance in Atlanta. Consistency has been a problem for the Bears, but I like the way they're trending right now. With Detroit and Green Bay both a game up on them they need to win games like this, and I think maybe Brandon Marshall brings a little extra to this one. Bears win and cover.
1:00pm EDT, FOX
Atlanta at Baltimore (-7) - So apparently you need a defense to win football games, as Atlanta is finding out. They're 31st in yards per game and 29th in points per game allowed, with no signs of improvement. Outside of JULIO I'm not going to bother watching much of this game. Meanwhile Baltimore has been a real Jekyll and Hyde case this season, alternating strong performances with shaky ones. The good news is Torrey Smith broke out with two touchdowns last week, and Justin Forsett appears ready for feature back status. (Please, someone put down Bernard Pierce. It's for his own good.) Derpy Flacco risk is still here, but I'm ready to believe Baltimore is legit. Ravens win and cover.
Seattle at St. Louis (+7) - Oh man, I would hate to be Jeff Fisher right now. You out-play the 49ers for the entire first half and then give up an 80-yard touchdown with seconds left before halftime, then let that momentum bury you in the second half. And now you have to face Swaggy Pete coming off a home loss. Guy can't catch a break. Seattle lost a home game last year too, but it was at the end of the season when they had clinched everything. Losing to Dallas and getting bowled over by DeMarco Murray in the process was pretty un-Seattle-like. They also looks pretty lost when playing catch-up. Maybe it's time to invest in a receiver taller than I am? Just a thought. This won't be close on the field but that 7-point spread still scares me. Under 43.5 looks better. Seahawks win, Rams with the points.
Minnesota at Buffalo (-5.5) - This is what happens when you throw a rookie at one of the best defenses in the league. 8 sacks taken, 2.5 QBR, no touchdowns and three picks. I still love Teddy B, but you have to wonder if you're doing him any good throwing him to the wolves like this. Buffalo played a decent game against New England despite what the scoreboard said. Police chief Kyle Orton hung in there against a ton of pocket pressure and kept the Bills within striking distance until the end of the 4th quarter. The defense has been pretty good at getting turnovers, but had none against the Pats. They should get at least a few against Minnesota. Bills win and cover.
New Orleans at Detroit (-3) - The Saints were a disaster. Their only two wins were an ugly slugfest with Minnesota and an OT thriller versus Tampa. Their bye week couldn't come soon enough, and I'm thinking the extra time to prepare will help them considerably. Of course, Jimmy Graham will in all likelihood miss this game, so it might not matter unless other targets can step up. Training camp all-star Brandin Cooks has been a disappointment, averaging a woeful 8.0 yards per catch. Expect to see an uptick in targets for veteran Marques Colston and backup tight end Josh Hill. But the real problem for the Saints is defense, as Rob Ryan's battles with consistency and his waist line continue. Speaking of defense, Detroit is at or near the top is pretty much every defensive category. Credit Jim Caldwell and first-time NFL defensive coordinator Teryl Austin for taking a talented but disappointing unit and making it into a genuine force. Donkey Kong Suh gets a lot of press, but second-year end Ziggy Ansah has 3.5 sacks and 4 tackles for loss, although he's battling a toe injury. Calvin Johnson also missed practice today, so there might not be much juice in either offense. I like the Saints to get back in the win column quickly, but not this week without their best offensive weapon. Lions win and cover.
Carolina at Green Bay (-7) - Well, that tie was certainly a thing that happened. Cam Newton, the most underrated superstar quarterback in the league, basically single-handedly willed his team to not lose in Cincy last week. It's scary to think what he could do with a healthy NFL running back and more than two receivers who don't drop everything in sight. But Cam, Olsen, and Benjamin will continue to plug along and hope for the best. The real disappointment has been Carolina's defense, a top unit last season just hasn't found its groove and appears to miss Greg Hardy dearly. Aaron Rodgers should have no problem putting up points here. And speaking of one-man offenses, maybe it's time to shelve Ed Lacy and let Rodgers be the feature back as well. Another TRENT-like performance has me wondering how any runner from Alabama even has an NFL job at this point. (That doesn't mean I won't hype this shit out of TJ Yeldon and Kenyan Drake though.) Packers win, Panthers with the points.
4:05pm EDT, CBS
Kansas City at San Diego (-4) - The Master Chiefs are coming off a bye and Jamaal Charles should be good to go. They have a tough assignment against San Diego's defense, but Charles is a good bet for a productive afternoon. And while San Diego's passing defense had been solid up until last week, Derek Carr just threw for four touchdowns on them, so who knows what to expect. The Chargers were actually down to Oakland and it took 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win, just another feather in the cap of MVPRIVS. My only complaint is the lack of Keenan Allen targets. C'mon Phil, get your shit together. Chargers win, Chiefs with the points.
4:25pm EDT, FOX
Arizona at Oakland (+3.5) - Carson Palmer's surprise appearance against Washington is one of the few times I can remember a player listed as doubtful starting, especially at quarterback. It paid off as he had two touchdowns, no picks, and a victory. Now with a full week to practice, I assume he'll unleash the dragon against the Raiders. Oakland surprised everyone by hanging around with San Diego, and most surprising of all was the protection for Derek Carr. Arizona's defense is a little more aggressive, so we'll see how Tony Sparano handles his second week as head coach. My guess is with another close home loss. Cardinals win and cover.
NY Giants at Dallas (-6.5) - If there was any doubt that the NFC East is a two-horse race, it was silenced by the Eagles 27-0 rout of the Giants on Sunday Night Football. 10 penalties and a Rodgers-esque 2-for-14 on 3rd downs spelled doom for New York. Meanwhile we all know how Dallas did their thing in Seattle. So this is an easy win for the 'Boys, right? Even Papa Breggy is drinking the Kool-Aid, right? Well, division games are weird. I have nothing to point to other than a gut feeling that this will be a squeaker. The old Cowboys would probably lose, but this year's vintage is a lot tougher. Cowboys win, Giants with the points.
8:30pm EDT, NBC
San Francisco at Denver (-6.5) - I don't really think San Fran is a great team this year, but looking at their record I should give them more credit for wins against Philly and in Dallas. Patrick Willis is dinged up, but the defense is still rock solid. But there's a phrase about a rock and a hard place, and Denver is a very hard place to play. Montee Ball's injury might be a blessing in disguise since he was doing bupkis, and the Hillman/Thompson duo looked okay against a tough Jets front. But screw the run game, a prime time date with DEMARYIUS is all I need. I feel like Denver will give up some points, though, possibly like their week 1 letdown against Indy. So that line scares me a bit. Fuck it, Broncos win and cover.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 20TH
8:30pm EDT, ESPN
Houston at Pittsburgh (-3.5) - Even at 3-3, Houston has really impressed me. Back-to-back tough losses in Dallas and against Indy really indicate that this is a better team than their record. Of course it helps to have the best football player on the planet in JJ Watt, who scored yet another touchdown last Sunday. Meanwhile Pittsburgh looked like complete ass in Cleveland, giving up 31 unanswered points to Brian Football and getting only 3 points out of three red zone trips. I'm really not sure what's wrong with the Steelers offense, since Bell and Brown are two great weapons, but they need to finish off drives in a big way. That said, doing so against Watt and company is not easy. Texans in the upset.