2014-15 NFL Week 9: The Return of the Three (and more gifs, also DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME)

[Bregor]

Last week:

M/L: 8-7
ATS: 6-9

Overall:

M/L: 72-48-1
ATS: 55-64-2

BLECH. Bad week to pick road teams with close lines (BAL, IND, PHI, GB) and fall in love with the idea of CHI being decent. Of course I was thrilled with Dallas losing despite picking them to cover and in Eliminator. SORRY LEROY.


Bye week: Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30TH

8:25pm EDT, NFL Network

New Orleans at Carolina (+3) - The 3-4 Saints battle the 3-4-1 Panthers for first place in the NFC South. On Thursday night. In the first Thursday game this season only broadcast on NFL Network. Feel the excitement! N'awlins has gotten things rolling again not only with Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham, but Mark Ingram. Yes, an Alabama running back did a good thing. The former Heisman winner tagged Green Bay for 172 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Carolina's defense has been a shade of its former self this season, so expect more big things offensively. Even more surprisingly, Rob Ryan's defense picked off Aaron Rodgers twice, the first team this season to turn that trick. They should be able to generate turnovers against Carolina. They put the ball on the ground four times against Seattle (but luckily only lose one) and Cam Newton also threw a pick in only 22 attempts. The defense was able to contain Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, but after getting lit up by Cincy and Green Bay, I'm not sure if it was Carolina playing well or just Seattle not executing. Either way, I feel like these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I also feel like Brees plays well in nationally televised games, even if it does require an extra subscription to actually watch. Saints win and cover.


DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AT 2:00AM


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2ND

1:00pm EST, CBS

NY Jets at Kansas City (-10) - After six straight losses and the worst passing offense in football, Rex Ryan marched Geno Smith back out at the starting quarterback last week. He opened the game 2-for-8 for 5 yards and 3 picks before mercifully being benched for good. Now, after loss number seven, Ryan is turning to noted dog lover Mike Vick to, um, well I'm not exactly sure what or why. I can pretty much guarantee Vick will not be a part of the next great Jets team. They have Matt Simms on the practice squad, but he's not exactly an up-and-comer so much as a warm body. They let proven winner Greg McElroy leave two years ago because they hate winning. And remember Mark Sanchez? The man who inspired a Sport Science on the physics of butt-fumbling:



Now what do they do? Draft another quarterback? Throw some picks away in a trade? The 2015 free agent class looks pretty terrible unless there are some cap casualties. Kansas City, on the other hand, identified a valuable and underrated commodity in Alex Smith, who has led the Chiefs to a 15-7 record as a starter. Following their bye, they have some mojo back with a quality road win in San Diego and a dominating performance over St. Louis. They still don't have a big vertical threat, but every week Jamaal Charles stays on the field and productive is a good week. The Jets' strength is stopping the run, so it might not be huge numbers for you fantasy owners out there, but it will be enough. Chiefs win, Jets with the points.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-11) - Well, that was fun while it lasted. The Jags fell back to earth as Blake Bortles threw two Deions, lost a fumble, took four sacks, and put up a whopping 2.8 QBR against Miami last week. The good news is Denard "Shoelace is a terrible nickname" Robinson put up his second straight 100-yard game, and given the two defensive touchdowns the defense held its own against Miami's offense. Like I've said before, I think Gus Bradley can eventually build a winner here, but he's got a long way to go. Speaking of winners, Cincinnati can thank George Iloka for their victory last week. His World Cup-level flop to negate Steve Smith's touchdown was pretty much the game:



That angle doesn't even do it justice. Steve Smith might be a good receiver but I seriously doubt he's strong enough to fling defenders around like he's fucking Bane or something. Anyway, Cincy narrowly avoided a four-game winless streak and now has two lay-ups against the Jags and Browns on the menu. Marvin Lewis may save his job yet. Bengals win and cover.

San Diego at Miami (-2.5) -



D'awwww, it's okay, Philip Rivers! You'll get 'em next time! I can't really fault San Diego for anything that happened last Thursday night. Sure, I've felt like their defense has been suspect all season, and the offensive line is a patchwork, but Denver will do that to most teams. The good news is Keenan Allen had 9 catches on 13 targets as he was able to find space underneath the deep coverages on Royal and Floyd. Getting him involved with Gates on those mid-range routes will help PRIVS get back into MVPRIVS form. As for Miami, that loss to Green Bay really stings in retrospect. They could be a half-game back of New England, but now sit behind Buffalo of all teams in third place. They didn't light up the Jags, but I did like what they did with the run game, especially getting Tannehill involved again. This might seem like a sexy upset pick but Miami has really excelled at shutting down passing offenses, so this might not be PRIVS' best afternoon. Dolphins win and cover.

1:00pm EST, FOX

Tampa Bay at Cleveland (-6.5) - The NFL trade deadline is usually pretty tame, and this year was no exception. The biggest news was the Bucs dumping Mark Barron on St. Louis for fourth- and sixth-round picks. Barron was the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and showed flashes of being a big-hitting presence in center field, but the lack of consistent production really lowered his value. Oh, and they lost a home game to the Vikings on a terrible fumble in overtime, so there's that too. Cleveland was pretty terrible last week as well, struggling offensively against the lowly Raiders all day before finally breaking through in the 4th quarter. Ben Tate had 26 yards on 15 carries. They were 2-for-14 on 3rd down, numbers that would even make ARodg terrified. It was bad. Luckily three Oakland turnovers plus some late heroics from Brian Football bailed them out, but it's still not encouraging for a team still in the hunt in the AFC North. (Fun fact: Cincy is first at 4-2-1 and is the only team in the division with a negative point differential!) The defense has been a problem, especially up front, and last week they lost John Hughes for the season. At least Ahtyba Rubin is back and Billy Winn is on schedule to return this week, so they should see some improvement. This will be another ugly game but I'm confident Cleland can pull it out. Yeah. Confident. I guess. Browns win, Buccaneers with the points.

Arizona at Dallas (-4) - Would you be surprised if I told you Arizona is 6-1, with their only loss coming in Denver? Maybe the national Cardinals talk should start. Last week they handled Shady McCoy (not a tough assignment this season it seems) and beat Philly on a 75-yard Josh Brown touchdown late in the 4th quarter. They're giving up an awful lot of passing yards, but their resumé is pretty damn good otherwise. I watched Dallas lose on Monday night and I still have absolutely no idea why it happened. I mean, I know intellectually they let Colt McCoy go 25-for-30 for 299 yards, but... how? Their pass defense has actually been pretty good this year. I've purposely avoided ESPN all week since I don't want to hear them talking about "COWBOYS IN CRISIS" or how Washington provided a roadmap to beating them. It's just one game. Ain't that right, Jerruh?



Fuckin' right. As for this game, the story will be DeMarco Murray against the Cards' third-ranked rush defense. If Murray and the offensive line can get established, this should be an easy win. If not, IT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END IN DALLAS no just kidding they'll still win the NFC East. Since the Cowboys fucked me in Eliminator I'm gonna be mean and pick the Cardinals in the upset.

Philadelphia at Houston (+2) - So Philly ran 88 offensive plays for 521 yards last week, and lost? How can I sum that up and also make a GatorAIDS joke:



A few turnovers deep in Arizona's territory really hurt. I expected better of a Chip Kelly offense coming off a bye, and it's really just a matter of better decision making from Nick Foles. This should be an interesting matchup on both sides of the ball. Since Houston likes to run Foster all day, it should be interesting to see Philly's defense try to slow him down. Meanwhile they've been good about protecting Foles but JJ Watt usually does anything he wants to. Houston is quietly having a decent season. Their three-game losing streak came against some pretty good competition, and they sit at 4-4 with a pretty easy schedule ahead. Clowney's knee is hurting again, but if they can get him back and at full strength they should scare a lot of playoff teams in the AFC. But Philly's offense will be too much in this one. Eagles win and cover.

Washington at Minnesota (-1) -

HOLY SHIT YOU GUYS BOBERT TRIPLE THE THIRD IS BACK!!!!!!

We saw what the Redskins were capable of doing last week when their quarterback isn't creating a turnover every 19 plays or so. It stands to reason that if Colt McCoy can run the offense on the road, Bobby Trips should have them scoring 60 points a game. Maybe he will, but what I really learned last week is Washington's defense can ball out. Bashaud Breeland, a fourth-round pick out of Clemson, harassed Dez Bryant all game and game up with four passes defensed, some on critical 3rd downs. And speaking of young franchise quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater had a clean game in Tampa last week, throwing a touchdown and helping the Vikings commit zero turnovers en route to an ugly overtime win. I feel like the kid is learning a lot, and when Kyle Rudolph gets back that should be a big, athletic target in the middle of the field to help him feel more comfortable. This is probably going to be another sexy upset pick but I'm all in on Teddy Throwsevelt. Vikings win and cover.

4:05pm EST, FOX

St. Louis at San Francisco (-10) - Well, that was fun while it lasted. The Rams climbed the mountain and beat Seattle, and then barrel-rolled all the way down by getting blown out in Kansas City. Still, I like the way Austin Davis spreads the ball around to his targets. I think the comparisons to Tom Brady and Kurt Warner are absurd (every QB who wasn't a first-round pick isn't Tom Brady) but he has a chance to stick as a starter for a while. The other good news for the Rams is Robert Quinn was back in the box score with two sacks. I think the "sign a huge contract and give up on the effort" thing is mostly narrative bullshit, but I was starting to worry. Jim Harbaugh's had two weeks to think about getting run out of Denver, and I bet he'll be fightin' mad!



Seriously, what a fucking clown. I'd bet a sizable amount that he's choked some bitches in practice Bobby Knight style. Anyway, San Fran is off a bye, at home, and a much better team. 49ers win and cover.

4:25pm EST, CBS

Denver at New England (+3) - I've decided to not do write-ups for Denver any more, at least until they lose. They're just awesome and instead I'm just gonna say that I fucking called Demaryius Thomas being an top-five receiver three years ago, coming off a season with 551 yards and 4 touchdowns. I should scout wide receivers (but DEFINITELY not running backs). Yay, New England scored 51 on Chicago. Who gives a shit, they're still not that good. Denver wins and covers.

Oakland at Seattle (-15) -



Seahawks win and cover.

8:30pm EST, NBC

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+1.5) - The Ravens got World Cup'd out of a really good road win last week, but I still like them as a team. They have good balance offensively and CJ Mosley, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata still provide the core for a pretty good defense. Flacco had trouble getting the ball to his receivers last week, as Steve Smith had just three catches on nine targets and Torrey Smith left with a concussion. I think he should be able to find his groove again in Pittsburgh. Heinz Field, though, man. That place is haunted or something. Last Saturday, the weather was perfect and yet the Pittsburgh Panthers had five fumbles lost on their first five possessions. On Sunday, Big Ben, who averages 241.6 yards per game in his career, threw for 522 and 6 touchdowns against a pretty good Indianapolis team. Seriously, I think the ghost of Tom Hardy's Bane is sleeping underneath the field or something. "Crashing this football team... WITH NO SURVIVORS!" (Two Bane references in one OP, holy shit!) Still, a betting man does not believe in such nonsense, and I think Baltimore is just a superior football team right now. Ravens win and cover.


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD

8:30pm EST, ESPN

Indianapolis at NY Giants (+3) - Ladies and gentlemen, the past and present of the glassy-eyed, goofy, dingus quarterback. I said last week that I would enjoy a Colts loss, and boy howdy did they answer. Not only did they let Big Ben throw for 522 yards, they gave up another 117 on the ground in what can only be described as a Big XII-esque performance on defense. How will they bounce back? The Giants are coming off their bye, but before that they had two losses to division rivals where they did not look good. At 3-4, they're not out of the playoff hunt just yet, but they have a lot of work to do. Rashad Jennings is still out with a knee injury, and Victor Cruz is on IR. That's a lot of production to pick up, but the silver lining is Larry Donnell has emerged as a nice target for Eli Manning. But defensively I don't think they're equipped to slow down Andrew Luck, and this shouldn't be close. Colts win and cover.

[Xajii]

eh, wish I could agree with your take on the OPI call, but the gif you posted clearly shows jersey grabbing. it's a BIT ticky tacky, in the sense that i've seen way worse get away with it, and with that flop BS show i'd have loved a no call just to spite em, but i cant really complain about the call itself

[Melena]

Bregs, what do you think the odds are the Raiders join the Lions as the only teams to go 0-16 in a season? Looking at the schedule including this week, they have @Seattle, vs Broncos, @SD, vs Chiefs, @Stl, VS SF, @Chiefs, vs Bills, @Denver. The only game I think they have the slightest of possibilities of winning is at home against the Kyle Ortons.

[Cail]

Read the Carolina and SD synopsis' and stopped. Bregs, you slippin bro

[Headspace]

Bregs is a DFF if he thinks that ISNT textbook OPI. It's what Smitty does.

Just like his uncalled face mask when he killed Pac Man

[Arvin]

rip to the pacman

[tyven]

Bregs is a DFF if he thinks that ISNT textbook OPI. It's what Smitty does.

Just like his uncalled face mask when he killed Pac Man

RIGHT WHEN I HAD FORGOTTEN ABOUT IT

[Headspace]

RIGHT WHEN I HAD FORGOTTEN ABOUT IT

The PTSD won't let me forget

[Bregor]

Lotta people who make shit threads complaining ITT

[Bregor]

Bregs, what do you think the odds are the Raiders join the Lions as the only teams to go 0-16 in a season? Looking at the schedule including this week, they have @Seattle, vs Broncos, @SD, vs Chiefs, @Stl, VS SF, @Chiefs, vs Bills, @Denver. The only game I think they have the slightest of possibilities of winning is at home against the Kyle Ortons.

I think STL is their most likely win but yeah 0-16 wouldn't surprise me.

[Cail]

Headly, whats the latest on GIODUDE? He gonna play?

[Krandor]

0-16 Raiders would make me so happy.

Niners could lose every game for the entire rest of the season and I would still be in cloud nine if the Raiders went completely winless

[Cleverness]

So whose good in the next draft, if I follow this correctly the Giants still have their first and second and I'm not really expecting to win more than 4-5 games this season at this rate.

[tyven]

Headly, whats the latest on GIODUDE? He gonna play?

No

[tyven]

So whose good in the next draft, if I follow this correctly the Giants still have their first and second and I'm not really expecting to win more than 4-5 games this season at this rate.

DAK

[Cail]

No

JUST CAUSE IM PLAYING YOU DOEsNT MEAN YOU CAN HOPE HE DOESNT

[Cleverness]

And I haven't been posting much this season cause of work and such but I just want you to know what I could feel the posts from that Cowboys/Redskins game and reading them afterwards it was glorious. I'm still trying to fathom the whole "hey we got 8 yards on the first down, lets pass the last 3 downs when we have a MVP ballot RB this season for the last few" at the end of that one. Some Cowboys fans at work were so emotional on Tuesday over that terrible playcalling.

[Cleverness]

Also I coincidentally picked a good season to not post a lot cause the Giants are in the shitter with Cruz gone and Jennings up in the air.

[Cleverness]

I can at least take solace that the Giants would be tied for first if they were in the NFC South, that division is so bad right now.

[Headspace]

Headly, whats the latest on GIODUDE? He gonna play?

He's out this week for sure.

Probably next Thursday too.