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  1. #1
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    2014-15 NFL Week 11: The Dog Days of Autumn (aka Mike Vick's Bye Week)

    Last week:

    M/L: 10-3
    ATS: 7-6

    Overall:

    M/L: 92-54-1
    ATS: 69-76-2


    Bye week: Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, NY Jets


    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13TH

    8:25pm EST, NFL Network

    Buffalo at Miami (-5.5) - Up 13-3 heading into the 4th quarter, Buffalo gave up a 39-yard touchdown run to Jamaal Charles on 3rd and long. Their next drive, they're about to go for it on 4th and 1 at midfield and have a false start penalty. After punting and forcing KC to go three-and-out, they fumble the punt return, and two plays later they're losing. Such is the life of a Buffalo sports team, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Looking forward, the defense is 6th in yardage and 7th in points allowed, and they can move the ball with just about anyone at tailback. They might miss the playoffs this season, but they're doing some really good things and they should get Kiko Alonso and CJ Spiller back at full strength in 2015. If you haven't seen the interception Brent "GRIMEY" Grimes made against Detroit, here you go:



    Pretty baller. Unfortunately Miami also dropped a heart-breaker last week, and they sit at 11th in the AFC despite a 5-4 record thanks to all the weird tiebreakers. Add in the loss of left tackle Branden Albert for the rest of the year, and things aren't looking so hot right now. Given the short week to rebuild the offensive line and Ryan Tannehill dealing with two minor scrapes, I'm not very confident in their ability to move the ball on Buffalo's defense. Under-42 looks mighty tasty for a Thursday night Ortoning, and I'd parlay that with Buffalo plus five and a hook. Hell, I'll go full Orton and take the Bills in the upset.


    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16TH

    1:00pm EST, CBS

    Houston at Cleveland (-3) - Last week my lead story was about Houston turning to Ryan Mallett, who has more kneel downs than attempted passes in the NFL. I guess it makes sense in the long term, but at 4-5 it wouldn't be insane to think they could sneak into wild card contention. He'll be the 10th starting quarterback in Texans history, and it's quite a history to live up to:



    Ouch. Although only Carr had more than one touchdown, Houston went 7-2 in those games. And with Arian Foster and JJ Watt helping his team, Mallett will have seven games to prove he's a bona fide starter in the league. Cleveland is riding high after a prime time shellacking of Andy Dalton last Thursday night. If they had that Jacksonville game, they'd be 7-2 and tied with New England and Denver atop the AFC. Their stats haven't been great except for the turnover battle. The Browns lead the league with 13 interceptions and 56 passes defensed, while Brian Football has thrown just four picks, and their +9 overall margin is 4th in the NFL. Unfortunately free safety Tashaun Gipson, their interception leader, is dealing with a concussion. Regardless, relying on turnovers to win football games can only carry you so far, but with Josh Gordon due back next week they've certainly weathered the storm. Cincy and Pittsburgh are both on the road and Baltimore's on a bye, so Cleland can really put the pressure on the rest of the division with a win. And unless JJ Watt can play left tackle or fullback, I'd expect Cleland to win the turnover battle. Browns win and cover.

    Minnesota at Chicago (-3) - Let's ignore Adrian Beathisson's imminent return to football for a minute and focus on the positive. The Vikings have a two-game win streak and Bridgewater played a clean game last time out against Washington. As I've said before, he's making a lot of improvement in his game while the team's top running back and tight end have been missing in action. If Minnesota can pick up some offensive line help and get everyone healthy and out of legal limbo, they could definitely make some noise in 2015. As it stands, it's about to get very, very cold in NFC North territory, and even though the Bears are 0-3 at home so far this season, I like them to play well in a harsh environment. Because even though Mel Tucker isn't going to get anyone to stop Minnesota (106 points allowed the last two games!) maybe the weather will. At 3-6, Chicago pretty much has to win out to make a playoff push, but guys are also playing for their jobs and that makes them dangerous. Under-46.5 in freezing cold might deserve your attention as well. And it's been too long since we've had some good Chicago vibes so I'm bringing back CUTTY APPROVES:

    Bears win and cover.

    Cincinnati at New Orleans (-7) - This is the battle of teams that have fucked me over the most this season. Cincy started out the season like wildfire, but the early bye might have been the worst thing for them. Facing an angry Touchdown Tom, injuries, and general Daltoning have cost them first place in the division. To make matters worse, Gio Bernard remains missing on the practice field. But if there's anywhere a team can go to get healthy on offense, it's New Orleans. The Saints have added a healthy run game to their arsenal, and that's keeping the ball away from opponents a bit more. But their actual play on defense leaves a lot to be desired, and a mere 18-to-10 TD-INT ratio is pretty un-Brees-like. Maybe Sean Payton just needs to get suspended for something dumb again so they can play angry. Long story short, I'm done with both of these teams from a betting standpoint, but if I have to choose I'll take Saints to win, Bengals with the points.

    Denver at St. Louis (+9.5) - Here's my weekly Denver write-up:





    Also, they wisely passed on Richie Incognito to help the offensive line. A strong locker room might be able to take him on, but this is a John Fox team we're talking about. As for St. Louis, they hung around with Arizona for most of the game before two Deions by Austin Davis put the last nails in their coffin. They're going back to Shaun Hill as the starter, because they're just not vanilla enough on offense for Jeff Fisher's liking. I'm usually fearful of big road favorites like this, and there's a chance the Rams get to Peyton enough to keep this close, but probably not. Broncos win and cover.

    1:00pm EST, FOX

    Seattle at Kansas City (-1) - PROTIP: Seattle is a normal team on the road. They lost to San Diego and St. Louis, and barely beat Carolina and Washington. Looking ahead, trips to KC, San Fran, Philly, and Arizona could all be losses. Russell Wilson's great and all, but 7.11 yards per pass attempt and 11 touchdowns isn't going to get it done. It should be pretty obvious that their top need for next season will be a big, physical receiver or athletic tight end. The defense, which looked very vulnerable against Dallas, has rebounded nicely, albeit against some weaker offenses. It should be interesting to see how they do with a taste of their own medicine. In truth, Seattle and Kansas City's little battle over decibels is pretty stupid. We get it, you both have loud stadiums. But aside from their opening week clunker against Tennessee, the Chiefs have been excellent at home. This game isn't so much about me liking Kansas City as I think Seattle is on cruise control. Chiefs win and cover.

    Atlanta at Carolina (-1.5) - As bad as things have been for these teams this season, they're both with one win of division-leading New Orleans. Atlanta got back on track with a decent performance in Tampa last week, taking care of the football and pulling away in the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan is still struggling to find other options besides Roddy White and JULIO, but Steven Jackson had a solid game and the defense supplied three turnovers and four sacks. Of course, they don't get to play Josh McCown every week either, but something is clearly wrong with Cam Newton. Ron Rivera insists that Cam's not injured, but he's wearing the Mike Vick flak jacket and he went to his knees and grimaced several times on the sidelines of Monday's loss in Philly. Consider the short week of preparation and a defense that allowed the Sanchize to put up 332 yards, two touchdowns, a 102.5 passer rating, and 61.1 QBR and you can't like the Cats' chances too much. Falcons in the upset.

    Tampa Bay at Washington (-7) - I thought Lovie Smith had a chance to make an immediate impact in Tampa, but a very Schiano-esque 1-8 record and no immediate hope for a turnaround seems like business as usual for the Bucs. The one bright spot for this team is Mike Evans, the rookie wideout who made Johnny Manziel look good in college is now trying to do the same for the McCown-Glennon two-headed monster. Then again, this time two years ago we were all aboard the Doug Martin train, so who knows if Tampa will ruin another emerging offensive star. Speaking of ruining talent, no one does it better than Washington, who have turned all of Bobby Trips' potential into "chuck it deep to DeSean and hope for the best." Maybe Jay Gruden can stop eating his brother's banana smoothies for a minute and go watch film of his rookie year and his time at Baylor, because using RG3 as another Rex Grossman is hilarious and all, but they spent three fucking 1st-round picks on him, and it's actually just sad at this point. This game will probably be an unwatchable mess, but since I live in DC and am working on Sunday I'm stuck with it. Super. Redskins win, Buccaneers with the points.

    San Francisco at NY Giants (+4) - So I guess San Fran isn't throwing in the towel after all. Kaepernick's bomb to Crabtree on 4th-and-10 let the 49ers force overtime and sneak away with a much-needed win in New Orleans. Still, they're three games back of Arizona in the NFC West and behind Dallas, Seattle, and Green Bay for a wild card spot. With both games against the Seahawks on the horizon, it will still be an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Patrick Willis is done for the year, but Wisconsin rookie and bit part on Home Improvement Chris Borland has played very well at linebacker. Aldon Smith, the only guy on the team crazier than Harbaugh, is set to return as well. He should help a pass rush that's tied for 24th in the league with only 15 sacks this season. The Giants have dropped four straight, getting outscored 136-62. Eli Manning, your thoughts:



    Thanks, Eli. They get Rashad Jennings back, which is something, I guess? The defense had trouble with RussWils and Lynch, so the Kraeper and Gore should have good games as well. But I still don't see San Fran blowing anyone out. 49ers win, Giants with the points.

    4:05pm EST, CBS

    Oakland at San Diego (-10) - The dream of 0-16 is still alive for Oakland. In earlier threads I talked about their two easiest remaining games being at St. Louis and home against Buffalo. But in their first game against San Diego, Derek Carr threw for four touchdowns and they racked up almost 400 yards of offense. That was actually the Chargers' last win, as three straight losses and their bye week followed. The bad news for Oakland is the Chargers are getting healthy. San Diego expects to see Ryan Mathews in the backfield and Melvin Ingram, Jeremiah Attaochu, Jahleel Addae, and Manti Te'o are all close to returning on defense. San Diego shouldn't need those reinforcements to beat Oakland, but with the state of their offensive line, every little bit helps. Chargers win, Raiders with the points.

    4:25pm EST, FOX

    Philadelphia at Green Bay (-5.5) - The scary thing about Philly's 45-point explosion on Monday night was that Shady McCoy only had 17 yards from scrimmage. Sure, he banged in a touchdown, but that offensive output was almost all Mark Sanchez. Finally, the Sanchize has been given the opportunity to succeed. But Green Bay's soft run defense should make for a more balanced attack from Chip Kelly on Sunday. The only question is if Sanchez's accuracy is sustainable. Of course that might not matter since Aaron Rodgers continues to be Aaron Rodgers. He threw six touchdowns and the Pack put up 42 points by halftime against Chicago. They're 4-0 at home and their only Lambeau losses last year came with the terrible QB hydra that was Wallace, Tolzien, and Flynn. The weather could play a factor, but over-55 could be FREE MONEY with these two offenses. As for the game, I'm probably not betting against Rodgers ever again. Packers win and cover.

    Detroit at Arizona (-1.5) - GAME OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK. It's incredibly impressive what Detroit has done with Calvin Johnson only a factor for four games. Sure, they can't run the ball, but what Jim Caldwell and Teryl Austin have done with the defense should earn some hardware for the former and a head coaching job for the latter. Donkey Kong Suh is the big name, but it's really been a team effort all season. Last week it was James Ihedigbo, the journeyman strong safety, who came up with a big interception in the red zone. Arizona's philosophy is much the same, but they haven't executed as well on defense. They're lagging behind in passing yardage allowed, a byproduct of having leads, but they're also not getting to the quarterback. Heading into last week they only had 8 sacks, but they managed six against St. Louis, so maybe things are trending well for them as a unit. Drew Stanton takes over the offense (again) for the injured (again) Carson Palmer. Stanton actually had some success getting the ball downfield, so it shouldn't be too much of a drop-off in terms of ability, even if it is in experience. I have to tell myself this is a different Detroit team, since I was so used to Jim Schwartz fucking things up. Now, I think they sky's the limit. Lions in the upset.

    8:30pm EST, NBC

    New England at Indianapolis (-3) -





    Patriots in the upset.


    MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17TH

    8:30pm EST, ESPN

    Pittsburgh at Tennessee (+5.5) - It's been a long time since I did a full Jon Gruden impression. Maybe I will again this season. But this game is just so fucking boring, I can't bring myself to do it now. Pittsburgh just lost to the fucking Jets. The Titans are fielding a team of scrubs. Who know what will happen. I guess I'll take the Steelers to win, Titans with the points.

  2. #2
    Fuck It, I'm Goin Deep Fan Club President
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    I cant believe after losing to the Jets, I'm thinking of taking Pittsburgh as my eliminator...

  3. #3
    THIS IS BREGOR'S STORY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cail View Post
    I cant believe after losing to the Jets, I'm thinking of taking Pittsburgh as my eliminator...
    Eliminator is a minefield this week. Kicking myself for taking San Diego earlier, I was thinking either Chicago (!) or Washington (!!!) myself.

  4. #4
    Mr. Bananagrabber
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    Yeah this a tough week for eliminator. I've been sitting on the Saints at home, but that just went out the window against the Niners and the game isn't in prime time.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krandor View Post
    Yeah this a tough week for eliminator. I've been sitting on the Saints at home, but that just went out the window against the Niners and the game isn't in prime time.
    I've been staring this week down for a month, trying to figure it out.

  6. #6
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    I'm going all in on Buffalo this week, don't let me down Bregs!

  7. #7
    Member since 2006 and still can't think of a title.
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    This week is the reason I held onto green bay for so long. Don't let me down with a clunker AR12

  8. #8
    GATTACA!
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    Rams benching Austin Davis for Shaun Hill is idiotic

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  10. #10
    Black Guy from Predator.
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    CHAHGAHS

  11. #11
    THIS IS BREGOR'S STORY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moss View Post
    Rams benching Austin Davis for Shaun Hill is idiotic
    Yeah I love Jeff the Giant Killer as much as anybody but maybe he's at the point where he should just be a DC

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    putting my money on the rams

  13. #13
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moss View Post
    Rams benching Austin Davis for Shaun Hill is idiotic
    no idea wtf they're doing over there

  14. #14
    Fuck It, I'm Goin Deep Fan Club President
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    Maybe Fisher wants to get canned out of StL

  15. #15
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    Bregor, this is the nicest thing anyone has written about Buffalo since the 90's

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    Not so bold prediction: Oregon State finishes last in the Pac-12.

    Bold prediction: They actually win one game in conference.

  17. #17
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    Shaun Hill is a curse. Every team he is a backup for, the starting QB explodes in a mess of ligaments and bone.

  18. #18
    Mr. Bananagrabber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Byrd View Post
    Not so bold prediction: Oregon State finishes last in the Pac-12.

    Bold prediction: They actually win one game in conference.
    Thank you for that win, it's nice to see WSU not at the bottom for once.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krandor View Post
    Thank you for that win, it's nice to see WSU not at the bottom for once.
    Wow, that was supposed to be in the college basketball thread. No idea how it got here.

    That being said, it's equally applicable to both football and basketball, so.... you're welcome?

  20. #20
    THIS IS BREGOR'S STORY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wulfgang View Post
    Bregor, this is the nicest thing anyone has written about Buffalo since the 90's
    The Curse of Brett Hull

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