IT'S JOHAN FUTBOL TIME MOTHERFUCKERS
Last week:
M/L: 11-5
ATS: 10-5-1
Overall:
M/L: 134-73-1
ATS: 102-103-3
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11TH
8:25pm EST, NFL Network
Arizona at St. Louis (-4.5) - Arizona surprised me by not folding up like a cheap card table last week, establishing the run against Kansas City and keeping Alex Smith in check. Kerwynn Williams had 19 carries for 100 yards, and Drew Stanton pitched a clean game for the Cards. They hang on to the top spot in the NFC for now, and my prediction for doom and gloom might look pretty silly. The Rams are coming off back-to-back shutouts (against Oakland and Washington, but still) and gave the Redskins the ultimate "how my ass tastes" when they marched out the six players drafted with the picks acquired in the RG3 trade as captains for the coin flip. God I love Jeff Fisher. This is probably going to be a defensive struggle, but the good kind where you can watch Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Calais Campbell, and Alex Okafor harassing quarterbacks all day. Rams win, Cardinals with the points.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 14TH
1:00pm EST, CBS
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (+2.5) - The Steelers now control their own destiny as they spanked Cincy in the 4th quarter last week. Le'Veon Bell might the the best closer in football as he churns out yards in bunches and also has almost 700 yards receiving. This brave new Steeler offense is going to take some getting used to, but they could definitely make some noise in the playoffs. Atlanta's only good player, the Great Cornjulio (thanks Pasta) is questionable with a hip injury. Steelers win and cover.
Miami at New England (-7.5) - Miami's playoff hopes took a big hit when they dropped a home game to Baltimore where they failed to generate much offense. Tannehill had trouble getting the ball downfield and Lamar Miller didn't help much either. They're now just 9th in the AFC and behind Houston in a tiebreaker.
Sorry, Baby Tyche. But their last two games are very winnable, and they already beat the Pats once this year, so maybe there's hope? But that was before New England got Edelman, LaFell, and Gronk all clicking at the same time. Do you think Shit-Ass Tom Bardy wants to win another Super Bowl?
Settle down, spaz. Their excellent secondary stifled Felipe Rios last week, so Tannehill should be no prob. Patriots win, Dolphins with the points.
Oakland at Kansas City (-10) - Don't look now but the Raiders have won two of three, beating KC and San Fran at home. Latavius Murray had a workmanlike day on the ground, but Derek Carr threw three touchdowns and they picked off the Kraepper twice. Khalil Mack and Sio Moore are becoming inpact defenders (for more than their celebrations) and TJ Carrie is coming off a great game. With the right HC/DC Oakland's defense could be a lot better in 2015. The Chiefs struggled after Jamaal Charles went down last week. I saw some crazy stat about Alex Smith being 2-for-50+ pass attempts this season when the ball travels over 20 yards in the air. That's fucking dreadful. RG3 to KC? I'd believe it. Chiefs win, Raiders with the points.
Houston at Indianapolis (-6.5) - Jadeveon Clowney is done for the year after knee surgery yesterday, a huge disappointment for the super athletic defensive end. But FitzMAGIC! and Watt have an outside shot of propelling this team into the playoffs if they win out. At Indy and then home for Baltimore is a tough road. But this game suddenly doesn't seem impossible after the Colts struggled mightily with the Cleland defense. It was three more turnovers for Luck, who may be putting up big passing numbers but isn't actually playing a whole lot better. They just have zero run game. If Brian Hoyer was competent in the least they would have lost, but now they're a lock to win the South. Just don't bet on them in the playoffs. Colts win, Texans with the points.
Jacksonville at Baltimore (-13.5) - The Jags are bad, but especially so on the road. Baltimore is coming off a solid win in Miami. This won't be close. Ravens win and cover.
1:00pm EST, FOX
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+1) -
Expect lots of big plays from Johan Futbol, but lots of turnovers too. At least he'll have some important reps heading into 2015. Bengals win and cover.
Washington at NY Giants (-6.5) -
Giants win and cover.
Green Bay at Buffalo (+5) - Is Green Bay's defense vulnerable? Or did they just let up after AR12 put the Falcons away early? They shut down Philly and New England pretty well, so I think it's the latter. I know the Pack are the Vegas odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl (even though Football Outsiders still likes Denver) but I think Green Bay is a smart bet. Assuming Arizona stumbles, the Pack in Lambeau will almost certainly beat the field in the NFC. This might be a trap game, though. The Bills just held Peyton Manning without a TD throw, and Orton threw for 355 and a touchdown last week. If his line can keep him upright, Orton has a chance for a shootout with AR12. Should be fun to watch. Packers win, Bills with the points.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (???) - With Oakland's win, Tampa is now back in the coveted #1 draft pick spot. So they're probably just spinning their wheels with the McCown/Glennon shitshow until they pick Mariota. Cam Newton got in a car wreck right by BoA Stadium, but his trademark charm was unharmed:
Of course he has a minor back injury, so who knows if he'll play. It's a shame too, because they had just shown New Orleans what they're capable of with a little offensive line play. I still like the Cats to win, Cam or PRO BOWL STUD Derek Anderson under center. I'll wait on the spread though.
4:05pm EST, CBS
NY Jets at Tennessee (+1.5) -
How bad are you as a franchise when the Jets are road favorites over you? Yuck. Will NFL RedZone ever actually show plays from this game, other than turnovers? I'll go with the Titans in the upset.
Denver at San Diego (+4) - Last week I predicted Felipe Rios would knock off the Patriots. Fool me once... Manning is going to detonate after failing to throw a touchdown last week. The Chargers just happen to be in the way. Broncos win and cover.
4:25pm EST, FOX
Minnesota at Detroit (-7.5) - Another week, another strong performance, and another win for Teddy Throwsevelt. He stung the Jets for 309 yards and 2 TDs in the overtime win. But Detroit won big for the second week in a row, and I believe they are operating at full Megatron. Under Schwartz they had an impossibly bad December and January record, but Caldwell seems to have his boys ready. Lions win and cover.
San Francisco at Seattle (-10) - This should be Game of the Week territory, but San Fran has just plain stunk lately. The Witch King of Candlestick, your thoughts:
Dick Sherman, your thoughts:
Thanks guys. Seahawks win and cover.
8:30pm EST, NBC
Dallas at Philadelphia (-3.5) - The default Game of the Week, Dallas is 9-4 but on the outside of the playoff picture right meow. They couldn't do much of anything on Thanksgiving against Philly, and now have to travel to the City of Brotherly Love. But Dallas is actually 6-0 on the road this season, and DeMarco Murray is still rolling. As predicted, the Sanchize had trouble with Seattle's defense and only managed 96 passing yards last week. Is this where he starts to come apart at the seams? Let's just say I won't be putting any money on his continued success, even if Chip Kelly has made lemonade out of turds so far this year. But then again, Dallas couldn't slow down a GMarsh-less Bears attack all that well. Take the over and Dallas in the upset.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15TH
8:30pm EST, ESPN
New Orleans at Chicago (+3) -
Bears are dogs at home to the 5-8 Saints? I dunno what that means, but I'm gonna take it as disrespect. Bears in the upset.