First of all, congratulations to NinjaLotter for surviving the first Sports Mod Challenge. I hope I can continue this trend and make people do whatever I want for a predetermined amount of time. Sadly, he still has an irrational, borderline psychotic hatred of Peyton Manning, but at least we know he can go an entire week without talking about it.
Now, since we're down to four good teams and 28 shitty ones, let's throw the rest of us a bone and talk about the men in the pleated pants:
Oakland goes from shit coach to caretaker interim coach (Sparano) to... shit coach. His last four years in Jacksonville were pretty brutal, a 23-36 record before being canned in mid-2011. His time in Denver was productive, but John Fox also a defensive guy, and the fact that the two of them couldn't cobble together a better overall unit is pretty troubling. Even this year, with a healthy Von Miller and bringing in DeMarcus Ware, TJ Ward, and Aqib Talib, the results were always just shy of expectations. My lasting memory of him will be Jacoby Jones's 70-yard touchdown at Mile High. Good luck, Raider Nation!
Crybaby Jim is gone, and with him my impressive collection of temper tantrum gifs. I'll have them for the college football thread, at least until that sociopath makes some new ones after Ohio State beats his brains in. The '9ers new head coach, Jim Tomsula, has been San Fran's defensive line coach for the last eight seasons and was interim head coach for one game in 2010 after Mike Singletary no longer wanted winners. Tomsula began his coaching career as a line coach, d-coordinator, and eventual head coach for all of one season in NFL Europe (the Rhein Fire went 6-4 in 2006 in case you were curious). His relationships in the locker room and more importantly the owner's box will be just as important as his record in 2015. San Fran's biggest hire, in my opinion, will be the offensive coordinator gig, as developing Colin Kaepernick is the most important thing for this franchise. The 49ers are also over their 2015 cap number right now, so they'll have to make some hard decisions about the roster.
When Rex Ryan was winning, I enjoyed his banter with the press. But I noticed he talked about Bill Belichick and the Patriots a lot. Fair enough, Bill's Pats set the standard for coaching and success in the NFL. But it almost became an obsession of Rex's, secondary to erotic feet, of course, but still. While the Jets were always gameplanning to beat the Pats, they forgot to build an actual good football team. Drafting and immediately starting Geno Smith was just a bad, bad decision, from Rex to John Idzik to everyone else involved. The new regime is Mike Maccagnan as GM and former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles as head coach. He'll have the luxury of two of the best defensive linemen in football, and not much else. The roster is pretty bare, but it's also young and they have a ton of cap space and easy cap casualties should they really clean house. I just hope he has some success early and we're spared a truckload of "Bowles" puns in the New York Post.
Atlanta dismissed Mike Smith after going 10-22 over the last two seasons. With how inconsistent the Falcons defenses have been, it's hard to believe he made his money as a defensive coordinator. If the ESPN rumor mill is to be believed, they'll get defensive again as their top two candidates are Seattle DC Dan Quinn and Detroit DC Teryl Austin. Both are excellent at their jobs (and former Florida GATA DCs) but had different challenges this season. I feel like Seattle's unit was already set up by Carroll and Gus Bradley so I'm not sure if I'd trust him to build his own defense, but he kept them on top of their game through a Super Bowl hangover. Austin had a ton of talent that went to waste under Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham and he molded them into a cohesive unit. I think Austin is the better hire for Atlanta.
The Trashman Era didn't last long in Chicago. Marc Trestman's offenses may have scored some points, but he couldn't pull a quarterback whisperer with Jay Cutler, and the turnovers and lack of a solid defense did him in. Really the saddest tragedy of all is the loss of Rhinox in the NFL threads. WE MISS YOU, BIG GUY! The Bears' new GM Ryan Pace appears to be interviewing all the usual suspects; Quinn, Austin, former Bills HC Doug Marrone, Denver OC Adam Gase. But two names are popping up that are... troubling. First is John Fox, who I touched on in my Del Rio rant. Even with a Peyton Manning offense and Pro Bowlers everywhere on D, his conservative coaching decisions and lack of in-game adjustments doomed the Broncos in the playoffs. I have no doubt he could build and coach a better defense than Chicago deployed last year, but that's damning with faint praise. The other name being bandied about is Mike Shanahan, the head coach from the Cretaceious Period that won back-to-back Super Bowls with John Elway's Broncos, coasted for ten years, and then flamed out in Washington after he broke Bobby Trips. He obviously has a relationship with Cutler, and might bring his son Kyle with him (rumor is John Fox likes Kyle for OC as well). Of course that scenario ignores the fact that a. they need a defense, and b. Mike Shanahan hasn't done dick bupkis since Bill Clinton was President. Whoever they hire, I hope they run Smokin' Jay out of town and he lands in Cleveland.
Fresh off a 9-7 season, their best since 2004 and Drew Bledsoe was the starter at QB, Doug Marrone opted out of his contract with the Bills. He'll be a hot commodity, for sure, but it's a puzzling move considering there aren't that many openings left. Of course, all three open jobs offer a lot more offensive weapons than Buffalo, so maybe he finally wanted to score some points. The Bills have a great defense and a mediocre offense formerly led by Grandpa Orton. So of course they hire a defense-first guy in Rex Ryan. Happy Feet will have an even better defensive line to gently caress in Buffalo, and Sammy Watkins is better than any offensive weapon on the Jets since... uh... Thomas Jones? Vintage Santana Moss? Lav Coles? Who cares, the Jets aren't his problem anymore. With Orton retired, he and new OC Greg Roman will need to figure out if EJ Manuel is even worth a shot, but I expect Buffalo to continue trending upward.
And finally... the Fightin' Peytons. Denver and Fox "mutually agreed to part ways" which means "you're fired but we don't want to embarrass you." See: Dick LeBeau "parting ways" with the Steelers when he refused to retire. Fox went 46-18 in Denver but failed to make it to the AFC title game in three of his four years there. And we all remember:
I guess the Broncos remember Fox's last five years in Carolina and didn't want a repeat performance. It's no surprise that the two names popping up the most are offensive-minded guys in an effort to convince Manning to stay another year. The first is the obvious in-house guy, OC Adam Gase. With five years on Denver's staff and experience coaching both quarterbacks and wide receivers, he's probably got a lot more to offer than most people think which is "guy who holds play card while Peyton does what he wants." The other guy is Gary Kubiak, who recently said he wants to stay Ravens OC for now. But he's friends with Elway from when Kubiak was Elways' backup quarterback in Denver, and it's not every day you can jump back into a head coaching gig with as much talent as the Broncos currently enjoy. Kubiak had a decent run with the Houston Texans and won two playoff games, but the wheels came off in 2013 and he was fired. One year helping Baltimore survive the "loss" of Ray Rice and reminding people Owen Daniels is still really good, and he's a hot commodity once more. If Kubiak turns them down and they don't feel Gase is ready, this could be anyone's job.
And now, on to teams that don't suck dick! (And the Colts.)
Last week:
M/L: 3-1
ATS: 3-1
Overall:
M/L: 173-90-1
ATS: 135-125-4
SUNDAY, JANUARY 18th
3:05pm EST, FOX
Green Bay at Seattle (-7.5) - First, the gambling. This opened at SEA-7 but AR12's gimpy calf is probably pushing a lot of volume towards the Seahawks. With a fully armed and operational Rodgers, this game would be one for the ages. But the limited mobility Rodgers showed in the Dallas game has me concerned that Seattle's pass rush will cause a lot more problems. Then again, he was skipping by the end of the game, so who knows how healthy he really is. The biggest difference for Green Bay offensively will be Eddie Lacy, as I can almost guarantee we won't see 5 yards per carry on the Seahawks in Seattle. Jordy Nelson didn't do much last week and they will need him contributing, along with Cobb and Adams, to have a shot. Seattle had a solid if unremarkable victory over Carolina, never really sweating it out but not dominating the game either. Three turnovers by Cam-Cam led to a slow start for the Panthers, and they could never quite catch up. For a long time, I failed to understand Seattle's offense. Sure, it's easy to see Marshawn Lynch truck fools and say, "he's good." But their passing attack defies logic sometimes. Russell Wilson has no good receivers. He doesn't have the biggest arm. He's just really smart and really consistent. He has no real comparable that comes to mind, the only thing I can think of is Drew Brees, minus a little arm strength and plus a lot of speed and agility. And that's terrifying. Get this guy a pass-catching tight end and he'll be destroying the NFC for the next decade. And that defense, hoo boy do I love it. If Green Bay can somehow contain Bennett, Avril, and Irvin, and Rodgers has enough time to pass, he still has to contend with their secondary. This is two years in a row now that AR12 not being at full strength has hurt the Pack, last year with seeding and now in the playoffs. Shit sucks, these Super Bowl windows are always smaller than you think. My heart wants to see him have a Willis Reed game but my wallet thinks otherwise.
Seahawks win and cover, under 46.5 (SEA 27 - GB 17)
6:40pm EST, CBS
Indianapolis and New England (-6.5) - This opened at NE-7 but most books have it down to 6.5, and the ones still at 7 are even or +110, so there's probably a lot of volume going Indy's way. Hopefully that's the layman's argument of, "Hey they beat Denver so they're good" at work here because I just don't see it. Also, all the headlines say, "LUCK BEATS PEYTON!" but I look at two interceptions and a 76.2 passer rating and see that Luck didn't beat any damn body by himself. And he sure as shit didn't get any help from his run game with 63 yards on 23 carries from Daniel Herron. Bad throws by Manning and drops from the normally reliable Demaryius Thomas are what I remember from watching the game. And Vontae Davis balling the fuck out. He'll need to swallow up Edelman and/or LaFell for Indy to have a puncher's chance on Sunday. In fact I feel like the actual AFC Championship happened last week in Foxboro, when JOELITE Flacco, Justin Forsett, and the Ravens offense gave the Patriots all they could handle. New England's secondary did a good job on the outside but Flacco used 10 different receivers in the game, something I'm not sure Luck can be effective doing. The Patriots have problems of their own, especially in the run game. Sure, you don't feel uncomfortable with Brady attempting 50 passes, but you'd rather Bolden, Vereen, Blount, or any other bipedal, carbon-based life form take some of the offensive load. But the key is obviously Gronk, and I just don't think the Colts have anyone who can cover him effectively. On defense, New England failed to get a sack on Flacco, so I think they throw some different looks at the Colts offensive line. With Revis and Browner covering Hilton, if you can make Luck uncomfortable, he'll turn the ball over all day.
Oh yeah and a reserve linebacker for Indy was charged with rape, criminal confinement with bodily injury, and battery resulting in bodily injury today so Goodell might suspend him for the 1st half.
Patriots win and cover, under 54 (NE 38 - IND 13)
In summation: