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  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by haroldsaxon View Post
    Have there been any other "active player" counts other than that single Lodestone scan?
    Just found this on the same site:
    August 9th, 2015: 824,000 active accounts across all servers NA/EU/JP http://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/45050121.html
    April 2015: 730,000 active accounts http://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/43689452.html
    December 2014: 574,000 active accounts http://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/41962303.html
    September 2014: 650,000 active accounts http://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/40214066.html

    As is to be expected the number of active players seems to rise with each patch and goes down in the time between patches. The overall trend is upwards though.

    Edit: for those interested...

    Launch 2.0 -- Tuesday, Aug 27th, 2013
    Patch 2.1 -- Tuesday, Dec 17th, 2013 -- 112 days after launch
    Patch 2.2 -- Thursday, March 27th, 2014 -- 101 days after 2.1
    Patch 2.3 -- Tuesday, Jul 8th, 2014 -- 103 days after 2.2
    Patch 2.4 -- Tuesday, Oct 28th, 2014 -- 113 days after 2.3
    Patch 2.5 -- Tuesday Jan 20th, 2015 -- 84 days after patch 2.4 (several weeks early, in other words)
    3.0 -- Tuesday, Jun 23rd, 2015 -- 154 days after patch 2.5 (238 days after 2.4. Time between 2.0 and 2.2 was 212 days. The time between 2.2 and 2.4 was 215 days)

    So the average has been roughly 111 days which is something like 3 months and 18 days. This means that patch 3.1 is likely to be released on Tuesday, Oct 13th, 2015 (112 days after 3.0 officially launched).

    TL;DR: So it seems that the number of active players was at 650,000 before the expansion was officially announced in October 2014. It went down to 574,000 during patch 2.4 (a coil patch and just after the release of Warlords of Draenor) roughly a month before 2.5 was released. It then stayed relatively high at 730,000 all the way until April 2015. Now in August we're at 824,000 active players and we've got roughly 50 days until patch 3.1.

    The data collection isn't perfect, so the results are likely inaccurate, but it's the best guess we can make at this point.

  2. #142
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    Some interesting stuff.

    Assuming their 9k new players a day stuff is right though, they either have horrible new player retention, old players leaving in droves or a combination of both - as there is a significant gap.

    Days between 1st September 2014 and 9th August 2015 is 342 which at 9k players a day, is just over 3 million - yet the actives have gone up by less than 200k. Likely some inaccuracies as going by their PR claims for numbers and more using slightly more specific dates, but still wouldn't expect that big of a gap.

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratatapa View Post
    I have 0 problems with casual content, but why can't they make content for good players. Savage should be a different raid. I'm tired to run A1-4 normal and then redo the same shit for savage. It's not hard to do content for both type of players?
    this is an insane and delusional request as if you're totally out of touch with why Alex Normal exists. what you should do is pretend Alex normal doesn't exist, never run it and only do Savage with Ravana, Upgraded Law, Eso and crafted gear.

    it has to be the same raid because they are not ever again going to write a storyline for 1% of the playerbase.

    even if they manage to get the development resources to develop another set of content it too will have a Normal version so that storyline is accessible to a wider group of people.

    this is something they learned from Coil which they will never do again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Niiro View Post
    You list 4 events in XI (there were a lot more) that could be done multiple times a week (could do Nyzul daily ffs) and somehow think you're still making an apt comparison to XIV.

    you can do that with XIV too. Savage/Alex, Treasure Maps, Hunts, Primals, CT/ST/WoD

    problem is we have no reason to have a weekly Primals night once we cap, or do maps/Hunts every week cause there's nothing we get from them that's worthwhile.

  4. #144
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    824,000 Active players is not a bad number at all. To give a minimum, If everyone was a legacy player, that's $8,231,760 monthly. With standard subs + the peeps that increase their subscription fee with extra retainers (lol) that's a pretty substantial increase. A lot of this is because HW brought back a lot of old players.

    I believe Yoshida stated they only need 400k subscribers to be considered making profit. So right now they're getting more than double of their expected profit.

  5. #145

    Quote Originally Posted by layoneil View Post
    you can do that with XIV too. Savage/Alex, Treasure Maps, Hunts, Primals, CT/ST/WoD
    Savage is once a week, Alex only takes more than an hour or two a week if you're picky about drops, maps take 5 minutes, the rest of what you listed is completely irrelevant content (calling maps content is being generous even, their only valuable drops are glamour).

  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by haroldsaxon View Post
    Some interesting stuff.

    Assuming their 9k new players a day stuff is right though, they either have horrible new player retention, old players leaving in droves or a combination of both - as there is a significant gap.

    Days between 1st September 2014 and 9th August 2015 is 342 which at 9k players a day, is just over 3 million - yet the actives have gone up by less than 200k. Likely some inaccuracies as going by their PR claims for numbers and more using slightly more specific dates, but still wouldn't expect that big of a gap.
    Yeah, it's difficult to get a grasp of what the retention rate is. There are a lot of factors that could influence SE's official numbers that aren't represented in the Lodestone scan data, like the Chinese (launched in August 2014) and Korean (launched in August 2015) servers, for instance.

    The data we do have on retention rates looks like this:

    Over 35% retention rate (October 30th, 2013)

    Naoki Yoshida: As FFXIV: ARR is a subscription based business model, naturally there will be players who will not play anymore once they finish the main scenario. MMORPGs that launched after 2008 with a subscription based model retained a maximum of 35% of their users during the first month of subscriptions. However, FFXIV: ARR has surpassed this number by a wide margin.
    Source: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/threads/113554
    500k Daily Logins (March 14th, 2014)

    In March of 2014 the game had 1.8 million accounts created.

    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zueQqbWhZeo

    Naoki Yoshida “Hmm, daily actives are numbers that can easily be misunderstood… and the peak time between Japan and other countries are different,” responds Yoshida. “If we go by the amount of people who log in each day, it’s about 500,000 people worldwide. There are people who also log in at least once every two days, so if we were to include those, the the figure would be much higher.”
    Source: http://www.siliconera.com/2014/03/14...ZAxIkU8D2dD.99
    500,000 daily logins amounts to almost 28% of all accounts created at the time. The actual number was probably higher, as Yoshi-P said there were more people logging in every other day.

    Lodestone Scans

    September 2014: 650,000 active out of the 2.5 million accounts created number = 26%
    December 2014: 574,000 active out of the estimated 2.8 million accounts created = 20.5% (2.8 million based on the 1.5 million growth in the official number over 5 months between September and February)
    April 2015: 730,000 active out of the estimated 4.2 million accounts created = 17.4% (4.2 million based on the 1 million growth in the official number over 5 months between February and July)
    August 2015: 824,000 active out of the 5 million accounts created number = 16.5%

    So the ratio between active accounts (officially reported and from Lodestone scans) and official accounts created numbers has been going down. This could be due to a variety of factors such as larger proportions of people quitting the game, the effects of Chinese numbers on the official figures, and less stickiness among late adopters.

    For comparison's sake, WoW reported 100 million accounts created in January 2014 (including free trials) and had roughly 10 million active subscribers at its peak in WoD. Even if we assume half of the created accounts are free trials to make it comparable to FFXIV's figures you get a 20% retention rate. WoW subscribers are now reportedly down to 5.6 million which would mean an 11.2% retention rate if we assume half of accounts created are free trials.

  7. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Niiro View Post
    Savage is once a week, Alex only takes more than an hour or two a week if you're picky about drops, maps take 5 minutes, the rest of what you listed is completely irrelevant content (calling maps content is being generous even, their only valuable drops are glamour).
    Maps is the exact same amount of content as doing pop items in FFXI. yea each map takes 5 minutes, get 8 people to bring 7 each and see how long that takes.

    i don't remember how long Nyzul or Salvage was but Alex and Limbus take roughly the same amount of time. the only thing that's super time consuming is Dynamis.

    i'm not saying XIV has a lot of content but people seriously over estimate how much XI had. and it took a lot more expansions to get to that point than what XIV has.

    the biggest difference is people are willing to still do Dynamis 2 years after it was released unlike the CT-line which as you say is already completely irrelevant.

  8. #148

    Quote Originally Posted by layoneil View Post
    i'm not saying XIV has a lot of content but people seriously over estimate how much XI had. and it took a lot more expansions to get to that point than what XIV has.

    the biggest difference is people are willing to still do Dynamis 2 years after it was released unlike the CT-line which as you say is already completely irrelevant.
    Which is why the "XIV is only X years old while XI was Y" argument is a bad argument.

    Content in XIV does not accrue over time, it has a small window of relevance and is then forgotten.

  9. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stef View Post
    -More goodposting-
    Completely forgot about the Chinese and Korean servers, although didn't the Korean one just open?

    I also wonder how many people have multiple accounts, I know one or two that do, and i'm guessing SE would know.

    Its natural that the percentage of active accounts would go down as time went on - but assuming SE's new player retention stayed stable (which is a wild assumption) then they should have gained 1 million players in the above example - yet only gained 200k. So new player retention went down and/or players left the game.

    But yeah, nice post, its interesting reading.

  10. #150
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    Number of accounts or characters are not relevant statistics in a P2P MMO. What are the subscription numbers? XI had 500k at its peak, 10 years ago when MMOs were still niche.


  11. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Niiro View Post
    Which is why the "XIV is only X years old while XI was Y" argument is a bad argument.

    Content in XIV does not accrue over time, it has a small window of relevance and is then forgotten.
    yes and no, the old one is forgotten but it will be replaced by the new 24 man version in 3.1. and 3.1 will also have another way to get the Eso upgrade items, whether it's hunts again or something else.

    4 man dungeons
    8 man bosses/primals
    8 man raids
    24 man raids
    hunts
    treasure maps
    airship content

    every 3 or 6 months through the life of this game you expect new iterations of those to be added. Dynamis was added and expanded once, Limbus, Salvage, Nyzul those were all just added and never expanded/updated. the original versions are just suppose to be good enough to be done for 3+ years.

    XIVs systems will accrue over time as well, unless the Airship stuff is a tremendous flop they are definitely going to expand that into something people do in 4.0 as well.

  12. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spider-Dan View Post
    Number of accounts or characters are not relevant statistics in a P2P MMO. What are the subscription numbers? XI had 500k at its peak, 10 years ago when MMOs were still niche.

    Just clarifying that the numbers I posted are active players, the number of characters is much higher than that. This data determines who's active by looking at gear changes, minion/mount attainment, and titles/achievements for characters over level 20 on the Lodestone over a given period. So subscriber numbers can only be higher than the numbers I presented.

    In other words, FFXIV has at least 824,000 subscribers as of this month.

  13. #153

    Quote Originally Posted by Spider-Dan View Post
    Number of accounts or characters are not relevant statistics in a P2P MMO. What are the subscription numbers? XI had 500k at its peak, 10 years ago when MMOs were still niche.

    Not from a revenue standpoint.

    What does SE care if people are constantly subbing and unsubbing as long as enough of them come back each patch and keep paying for expansions?

    Or if someone buys the game, subs, buys the expansion, exhausts the content and quits, that's still money made if enough people are doing it (and these people are always going to be potential re-subs).

    It may not be indicative of a good game or foster a good community but that's not their concern.

  14. #154
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    It shouldn't be the concern of any company out to make money moreso than make a legacy. SE has like, 20 games that have valid legacies. I don't think they need this one to make another. Now, make bank? That's a different story, and this game rakes it in.

    Nobody rakes in a profit like blizzard (1 billion in a single quarter is still staggering to me), but SE is doin' work.

    ...Haven't we just had this entire thread conversation before, though?

  15. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stef View Post
    In other words, FFXIV has at least 824,000 subscribers as of this month.
    It would mean that if alts didn't exist.

  16. #156
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    a subscription is a subscription, it doesn't matter if it's a main or an alt they're profiting off of multiple accounts.

  17. #157
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    There's also the Korean client of XIV that'll be out soon if it isn't already, which'll boost the numbers slightly as well. Bit curious how their Chinese release is doing for them since I recalled it not using a subscription model, and that a third party is handling it for SE which would take their cut.
    Spoiler: show
    It also had a sexier launcher than the bland HTML driven one we have

  18. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shenrien View Post
    a subscription is a subscription, it doesn't matter if it's a main or an alt they're profiting off of multiple accounts.
    how are people defining alts? you can make 8 characters on the same subscription.

  19. #159
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    I assume people with multiple accounts = alt/mule account?

  20. #160

    I very much doubt many people have multiple accounts.

    Certainly not enough to have any significant effect on the numbers.

    But Stef's metric wouldn't be able to differentiate between alts on the same account and ones on different accounts.

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