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  1. #1
    THIS IS BREGOR'S STORY
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    2015-16 NFL Wild Card Weekend: KC-8R

    Well, here we are. The NFL playoffs. While the Broncos, Pats, Cats, and Cards rest up, we are treated to four pretty evenly matched games. The biggest spread out there is five points, and even that game opened at 3 and a hook, so it's not Vegas that doesn't like the Vikes, it's the bettors. The surprising thing is all four home teams are underdogs, so fuck your home field advantage.

    The buzz of the NFL Twitterverse and the ESPN scroll has been the coaching carousel and Johnny Manziel's exit interview, but we can save that garbage for the Pro Bowl thread or something. But there is one idea I had for your nerds out there:



    You're welcome.



    Last week:

    M/L: 12-4
    ATS: 7-8-1

    Overall:

    M/L: 160-96
    ATS: 130-118-8



    SATURDAY, JANUARY 9TH

    4:20pm EST, ABC / ESPN

    Kansas City at Houston (+3) - Will the real Kansas City Chiefs please stand up? Starting the season 1-5 then rattling off 10 straight wins has me pretty confused. But let's look at those 10 wins, shall we? They started off beating Pittsburgh sans Big Ben, and two weeks later picked off Peyton Manning four times in Denver to begin the BROCK LOBSTER era. Other than those two wins against playoff teams, their streak is comprised of Detroit, San Diego twice, Buffalo, Oakland twice, Baltimore, and Cleveland. Yikes. I picked them to win the AFC West so I guess I'm happy they're in the playoffs, but I don't really have any faith in them now that they're relying on a Jamaal Charles-less offense to move the ball against good defenses every game. Houston also caught fire late, finishing 7-2 and outlasting the Colts for the AFC South title. I know we're all disappointed Bill O'Brien is going with HOYER THE DESTROYER over WEEDEN this week, but both guys need to do the same thing to win—chuck it to DeAndre Hopkins early and often. And even though he didn't do it during the regular season, I think we need to see the return of JJ Watt, red zone tight end. Defensively, Watt is as good as ever, and it's been Whitney Mercilus and not Jadeveon Clowney who has supplied the pressure along with him. I'd love to take a few prob bets on this game, like over on any defense/special teams touchdowns. As for the usual picks, I see Kansas City swarming Hopkins and daring Hoyer and the running backs to beat them. Chiefs win and cover, under 40.



    8:15pm EST, CBS

    Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+2.5) - No Le'Veon Bell, no problem for Pittsburgh this season, as DeAngelo Williams turned good performances week after week to keep the offense balanced. When he went down last week, they pretty much stopped running the ball, but it was against Cleveland so doesn't matter, scored points. And even thought JULIO beat him by 37 yards, Antonio Brown is still the best receiver in the league in my opinion. Picked in the 6th round of the 2010 draft out of Central Michigan, Brown's last three seasons have been spectacular. But Cincinnati has done a good job on Brown this year, limiting him to 13 grabs for 134 yards and a single score in those two games. Cincy will be without the Red Head Revolver in this one as two-time National Champion and winner of Alabama's Sexiest Chest Tattoo AJ McCarron is pretty much confirmed to start. AJ went 2-1 as a starter, losing only to the Broncos in Denver and having an 86.6 QBR in that game. He's looked pretty comfortable so far, and it helps Cincy's chances that their defense is fucking baller. They finished 2nd in the league in points allowed, only two points behind Seattle. They had 28 takeaways, good for 6th in the league, and 83 passes defensed, good for 5th overall. Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap are monsters up front, and if they can get to Big Ben, I like their chances a lot. Bengals in the upset, over 45.5.




    SUNDAY, JANUARY 10TH

    1:05pm EST, NBC

    Seattle at Minnesota (+5) - Look, we all knew this would happen. Seattle started out 2-4 and literally the entire sports world said, "If they manage to sneak into the playoffs, they'll be a dangerous team!" YOU-DONT-SAY.jpg. But it's not in the way we all thought it would go down. Russell Wilson went completely apeshit in his last seven games, to the tune of 154-for-217, 1906 yards, 24 touchdowns, 1 interception (!), and a 132.8 passer rating. His new-found chemistry with Doug Baldwin has helped propel the duo into the upper echelon of the NFL and solidify a playoff spot, even before curbstomping Arizona in Glendale last week. And even though the Legion of Boom took a while to rediscover their magic, they managed to finish 4th in Defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. In fact, they finished first in Total DVOA and Weighted DVOA, and have so much distance between themselves and the 2nd place teams for each category (Cincy and KC, respectively) that Seattle at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl looks like a FREE MONEY bet to me. Minnesota won three straight down the stretch to win the NFC North and have the pleasure of facing the Seahawks in the first round instead of punting the Sunday night game and going to a rematch with the Packers instead. Brilliant move, Zim-Zam. That's not to say the Vikings have no shot here. During the regular season, they got smoked 38-7 but went away from Adrian Peterson too soon and did almost nothing to slow down Russell Wilson and the Seattle run game. But where will they improve? I can't point to one position-on-position matchup I like for Minnesota. Oh well, good luck with that 1st place schedule next season. Seahawks win and cover, over 40.



    4:40pm EST, FOX

    Green Bay at Washington (+1) - The Pack were a sexy pick to win the NFC, both nationally and here on BG. I don't think anyone realized the impact Jordy Nelson's injury and Eddie Lacy's FEASTMODE would have on the offense. They were 15th in points scored 23rd in yards, and even Aaron Rodgers had a measly 92.7 passer rating this season. Still, a 10-6 record is nothing to scoff at, and the defense chipped in with 22 takeaways and 43 sacks. What troubles me is the last two weeks, first getting boatraced in Arizona then puttering out at home against the Vikings. In those two games combined, they went 7-for-32 on 3rd down, and were 28th in the league this year at 33.7% conversion rate. AR12 RIDES AGAIN. Washington comes into this game winners of four straight and with Kirk Cousins on top of the world. The team is handing out towels with his famous phrase for this game, and why not? In an alternate universe where Washington does in a tailspin, "YOU LIKE THAT?!" would have been the Howard Dean scream of the Redskins 2015 season. Now, it's a rallying cry for their success, and a monument to their new-found confidence and swagger. And it's not just their attitude I like. Cousins led the league with a 69.8% completion percentage and Washington's offense scored 24.3 points per game, good for 10th in the league. I'm not expecting a shootout, but I think Washington can keep up with the more experienced playoff team. At the beginning of the year I thought the Cousins-Griffin decision was a terrible one and doomed the franchise. Now there is enough egg on my face for a few dozen omelettes at IHOP. Redskins in the upset, under 45.


  2. #2
    The Anti Miz
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    God I hate the Redskins. Remember when I had to pretend to be a fan for an entire year just to jinx RG3s career into oblivion?

  3. #3
    Member since 2006 and still can't think of a title.
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    Oh why oh why could we not have those starwars pics when Orton went to the Cowboys and Miz super raged.

  4. #4
    THIS IS BREGOR'S STORY
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    Quote Originally Posted by tyven View Post
    God I hate the Redskins. Remember when I had to pretend to be a fan for an entire year just to jinx RG3s career into oblivion?
    Is that different from when you pretended to like the Bears to jinx Cutty?

  5. #5
    Member since 2006 and still can't think of a title.
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    Tyven jinx > Leroy Curse?

  6. #6
    The Anti Miz
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    2015-16 NFL Wild Card Weekend: KC-8R

    Quote Originally Posted by Bregor View Post
    Is that different from when you pretended to like the Bears to jinx Cutty?
    Different intentions (love Cutty and Bears) same results

  7. #7
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    I'm just hoping that Bakhtiari returning + the Redskins crappy defense (21st in defensive DVOA) means the Green Bay offense performs semi-competently, and the defense plays well enough to squeak out a win.

    It's a lot of "if"s.

  8. #8
    Brown Recluse
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    Are we really getting AD vs Beast mode in Planet Hoth stadium?

    Can't wait

  9. #9

    If I were a homer from another location I'd hold out hope I didn't play an NFC West team.

  10. #10
    Piece of shit Bruins fan

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    Payton staying in NO

    Says he'll stay there until they tell him to GTFO. "I'll be here as long as they'll have me."

  11. #11
    The Anti Miz
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    Good for him

  12. #12
    Mr. Bananagrabber
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    Thanks internet


  13. #13
    Fuck It, I'm Goin Deep Fan Club President
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    Wind chills for [email protected] forecasted for -25

  14. #14
    Brown Recluse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krandor View Post
    Thanks internet

    Is that Brian Urlacher and his new hair?

  15. #15
    The Optimistic Asshole
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    I'm gonna go with

    KC over Houston
    Cinci over Pitt
    Minnesota over Seattle
    Green Bay over Washington

  16. #16
    Member since 2006 and still can't think of a title.
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    KC over Houston
    PItt over Cinci
    Seattle over Minnesota
    Washington over Green Bay

  17. #17
    Shootin' rocks at monsters
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cail View Post
    Wind chills for [email protected] forecasted for -25
    Russel's going to be so blue, Gargamel's gonna show up at half time and try to turn him into gold.

  18. #18
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    Is that what he wanted to do? I thought he wanted to eat the Smurfs or something..

  19. #19
    Shootin' rocks at monsters
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serra View Post
    Is that what he wanted to do? I thought he wanted to eat the Smurfs or something..
    It depended. Sometimes, it was to eat them, but othertimes, you could turn them into gold (or they were required for turning lead into gold). Balthazar (Gargamel's godfather) tried it, but only had two smurfs, and it failed, blew up in his face, and Gargs was all, "I tried to tell you". They went back and forth a lot on the exact reason. Eventually, it seemed to just be from pure and utter cussedness.

    I do not know why I remember this. It's been 32 years since I've seen the Smurfs at all.

  20. #20
    The Anti Miz
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    You guys here are the teams that will win

    Texas
    Pitty
    Hawk
    Redskin

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