Brexit: Unions are for Pussies

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 20:28

Fuck yes you do.

**archibaldcrane** · 2016-06-23 20:28

oh shit remain just surged into the lead, thanks to a huge win in Glasgow

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 20:32

Yeah. Looks like the tide is turning pretty quick. First London reports are in too.

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 20:33

Fun Fact: All of Wales was majority Leave.

**Krandor** · 2016-06-23 20:37

Glasgow was expected, odds makers still have Leave as a healthy favorite right now.

**archibaldcrane** · 2016-06-23 20:43

Chris Hanretty, on his University of East Anglia blog, has updated his forecast. Based on 33 results in, he expects leave to win by five points.

This is a big update, and I’m conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:

Predicted probability of Britain remaining: 0.03

(33 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for remain: 47.5%.

(90% prediction interval: 45.5-49.6%)

Yikes

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 20:44

I think that's quite far off the mark. The vote has heavily shifted back to Remain with London starting to report. London areas are around 70% remain.

**archibaldcrane** · 2016-06-23 20:46

Looks like less than 1% between them right now though right?

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 20:49

Just about. It was 53% Leave at one point though.

**archibaldcrane** · 2016-06-23 20:51

bruh

Remain 50.01% 2,877,575
Leave 49.99% 2,876,697

**Krandor** · 2016-06-23 20:52

Leave back on top from the BBC results page

**archibaldcrane** · 2016-06-23 20:56

Not no more it ain't

**thetruepandagod** · 2016-06-23 20:57

Originally Posted by Krandor

Leave back on top from the BBC results page

this is what im seein

**Xno Kappa** · 2016-06-23 20:57

What kind of ramifications are we looking at for the rest of the EU if Leave wins? Mostly curious what happens to Germany who pretty much bankrolls the rest of the continent.

**thetruepandagod** · 2016-06-23 20:59

Originally Posted by Xno Kappa

What kind of ramifications are we looking at for the rest of the EU if Leave wins? Mostly curious what happens to Germany who pretty much bankrolls the rest of the continent.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/14/inve...gative-yields/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-1...ime-1465889491
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/bu...ative-ecb.html

I don't think anyone knows at the moment though. But there are countries expected to need a bailout in the near future.

**Krandor** · 2016-06-23 21:00

In the short term, likely absolute chaos in the global market and exchange rates

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 21:05

It's so close.

We don't have enough room in this thread to discuss the Leave outcome. Needless to say it's a fucking disaster for Europe.

**Boyiee** · 2016-06-23 21:06

Sooooooooo how will this affect my trip to France and our day trip planned to London lol.

**Zetanio** · 2016-06-23 21:07

Originally Posted by Boyiee

Sooooooooo how will this affect my trip to France and our day trip planned to London lol.

Literally nothing. Any effects won't happen for awhile.

**Boyiee** · 2016-06-23 21:07

US and UK could totally team up like mentioned earlier but the two countries would never agree on a name and it wouldn't work.

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