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  1. #1
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    Daily Dials/Lottos: What's the pattern?

    So, I'm sure everyone who has multiple characters/accounts has noticed at some point that there seems to be some sort of pattern to what the daily dials or lotteries hand out. Whether it's seeing multiple similar high-priced sellables, or seeing 4x flowers in a row, there is frequently some sort of connection between the loot received on different characters/accounts, especially when done within a short time frame.

    I've never run into any reports of organized testing, so I've decided to start on my own. ^^ My theory is that special dial/lottos have preset limited loot pools based on timeframe and rotate as time passes.

    Likely possibilities for sync points:
    1. RoE "Challenges"
    2. Game Day
    3. Real Time: 2hr/4hr time blocks, likely starting at JP midnight
    4. Something else ~_~;; Really hoping it's one of the above.

    I've started recording results from the Chacharoon ticket, but doubt I'll be able to come up with anything beyond anecdotal evidence on my own since I only have 13 characters to work with. I plan to continue this testing with other dials/lottos though, since I believe the likelihood of a universal system is high, so figured there might be enough time to establish a link before the Jingle Baaas event ends if others contribute. To clarify, right now all I am trying to do is reasonably prove that there is a connection between loot pools and time. Not too worried about pinpointing the contents of the pools at this time since it is likely a one-time event. (That will probably be my next project after this one is completed.)

    Right now, I'm recording: RoE, gameday, gametime, realtime(JST), (and any timed system messages just-in-case.) Any other suggestions for likely sync points? How much data am I going to have to collect before we can be confident which point is the correct one? Anyone willing to contribute who I can trust not to vandalize a Google doc spreadsheet?

    I'm thinking that if we can pinpoint the reference/sync points, then it should be possible to map out the loot pools.

    edit: Google Docs Spreadsheet
    Recording: ROE challenge, game day, game time, real time, item name, date, server. Notes are for any sort of system-wide scheduled event that might possibly have an impact on loot table rotation.
    All are welcome to add to the table, please don't delete/change anything other than your own entries. ^^

    Edit: Wanted Dial recording has begun! Contribute if you can, 2x of my characters are too new to spin the dials so I'm down to only 11x for this testing.... orz

  2. #2
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    When they first released it, the rewards from what is now the Special Dial used to rotate through different categories based on the day. Now they split each of those categories out into an individual dial and you have a Special which is kind of a mix of everything plus equipment.

    https://www.bg-wiki.com/bg/Gobbie_Mystery_Box

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Byrthnoth View Post
    When they first released it, the rewards from what is now the Special Dial used to rotate through different categories based on the day. Now they split each of those categories out into an individual dial and you have a Special which is kind of a mix of everything plus equipment.

    https://www.bg-wiki.com/bg/Gobbie_Mystery_Box
    I am purposely not investigating the Special Dial at this time, mainly due to the apparently MUCH larger potential loot pool involved. I suspect that the Special Dial pool rotates on the same type of system as event related lottos, but imagine it would be a lot harder to nail anything down. So, what I am looking at testing right now are the event related dials/lottos, like "Wanted Dial" or "Chacharoon's Ticket", since my personal experience is that they seem to have rather small loot pools to pull from comparatively.

    edit: Should this be moved to the Mathy Parts forum? ^^;; Wasn't sure if I should post in there or in general section..

  4. #4
    Ridill
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    I'm not sure Chachs dial is any smaller than sp... in fact it could be that plus some stuff but since it's clearly biased towards better stuff even more than using keys or dial campaigns it's hard to see if you get as wide a selection of fodder

    But yeah I recorded shit with lots of mules for like a month or something and couldn't find jack

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by dasva View Post
    I'm not sure Chachs dial is any smaller than sp... in fact it could be that plus some stuff but since it's clearly biased towards better stuff even more than using keys or dial campaigns it's hard to see if you get as wide a selection of fodder

    But yeah I recorded shit with lots of mules for like a month or something and couldn't find jack
    I'm convinced that it's not that it's biased towards certain items, but that it's a very small loot pool within the same timeframe (less than 100 definitely, maybe as low as 20.) All event, I've consistently gotten at least one double out of only 13x draws, plus similar item groupings like 100s. That consistency should not be possible if there was a much larger loot table, no? I'm not ruling out the possibility of a multi-roll system w/ subtables, but I would think that even something like that shouldn't account for ~10% double rate w/ 13x draws.

    When you did your testing, what factors did you track? Am I missing any obvious timeframe possibilities?

  6. #6
    Ridill
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    Not sure I did this long ago when the gobbie box changed would have to comb thread to find more info

  7. #7
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    I guess a better question might be: What should I track?

    I can't think of too many other likely anchor points for the windows besides the ones I'm already tracking. These ones should be simple enough to prove/disprove correlation I hope. Just need many more data points that what I'm going to be able to create myself... Especially since I waited until there was only about a week left for this event before getting around to recording my results >_<;;;; How many would I need to have to be able to be sure that I'll be able to show any existing connections?

    Most likely, the results would apply more to event dial type things than the standard Special Dial. I've got a feeling they work off the same basic principles, but the loot tables for Special Dial definitely feel a lot more massive than event ones with the sheer variety of items reported.

  8. #8
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    Bump to share the Google Docs link updated in OP.

  9. #9
    i should really shut up
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    Funkworkz has been changing pages overtime in good sized dumps on the wiki to include the gobby box tag if the item is available through the Gobby box.

    This information is tagged in the dats and we don't need to create a Google Docs tracker for it afaik.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spicyryan View Post
    Funkworkz has been changing pages overtime in good sized dumps on the wiki to include the gobby box tag if the item is available through the Gobby box.

    This information is tagged in the dats and we don't need to create a Google Docs tracker for it afaik.
    What I am trying to determine is not the exact loot pool for the event. We'd need a MUCH larger data pool than what I can personally contribute in a set/limited amount of time per event. I'm trying to figure out if the eyeballed patterns I've picked up on that appear to be time-based are real or just PowerBall level coincidences occurring on a regular basis. It's really REALLY hard to accept that the system is a true/pure random selection from an all-inclusive loot pool after you get 4x 100pc in a row like I did earlier this month. (Which was what got me thinking that I should get around to actually testing to prove/disprove my theory.)

    As far as the loot list itself, there are some obvious groupings that are likely to exist if my time-based theory is correct (100s, marrow/scoria/riftdross, cursed/hexed, food, content type, etc.) Thinking about it from the POV of known/accepted game processes, my best bet is that the core of the box/lotto is a two-roll system. 1st roll picks a "theme" from a list of subtables > 2nd roll picks the item from the subtable. This would allow for a very scalable and customizable loot pool w/o having to redo everything from scratch each time. Devs could just mix/match existing subtables and we'd end up seeing very different results on the user end. Heck, they could even control drop rates by fluffing either of the table w/ duplicate entries. Something like this would also make it rather simple to add new items to the pool on a temporary/event basis w/o worrying about causing problems later.

    Everything above is pure theory at this point tho, which is what it will stay unless I can get enough data points to prove/disprove any of it. If there are any major flaws in my logic, please point them out so I can fix them. ^^

  11. #11
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    It isn't a theory. It is a hypothesis or simply put an idea.


    You are up against a random number generator, and going on a day, moon phase, etc is not going to increase your odds. I know we all want to believe that dreams come true in XI at this point and 'beat the system', but that isn't how this works. Of course it isn't random as computers are not capable of the concept of random, but you aren't going to get the keys to the castle here and increase your odds at an item like you want.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spicyryan View Post
    It isn't a theory. It is a hypothesis or simply put an idea.


    You are up against a random number generator, and going on a day, moon phase, etc is not going to increase your odds. I know we all want to believe that dreams come true in XI at this point and 'beat the system', but that isn't how this works. Of course it isn't random as computers are not capable of the concept of random, but you aren't going to get the keys to the castle here and increase your odds at an item like you want.
    Except the results I've gotten from the various dials over the past year and a half force me to question that it is a pure RNG system w/ no limiting factors. Pure RNG does not explain getting identical or "set based" results on a very frequent basis with only ~10 attempts daily if the potential results have a large pool. My gut feeling is that the event dials/lottos are on a 4hr rotation, which happens to match up with ROE challenges, so it should be relatively easy to establish a correlation, if one exists, compared to proving smaller time windows like gameday or real-time hour or smaller.. I sincerely doubt that moonphase, day of the gameweek, or direction you are facing when you talk to the npc have any impact on results. ^^;;

    I know full well that I won't be able to pinpoint the exact loot tables for the Chacharoon ticket and am not attempting to at this time. More in-depth tracking/analysis of loot tables can wait until after the time-window theory is proven/disproven. If there is nothing that rules out a rotational schedule, then I'm planning on tracking the Wanted dial next, as it should have the smallest total potential loot pool of any of the event/campaign dials. I'm focusing on the time windows atm because it's something that can be tracked and has good potential as a possible design element for the devs to hook onto.

    In other words, I'm not trying to analyze how many people or what demographics get on a bus, I'm only trying to figure out what the schedule is.

  13. #13
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    4-hour windows seems like a reasonable starting point, but it's going to take a good amount of data points even if you just want to show whether some time intervals you are more likely to get good shit versus other intervals.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDF View Post
    4-hour windows seems like a reasonable starting point, but it's going to take a good amount of data points even if you just want to show whether some time intervals you are more likely to get good shit versus other intervals.
    Figuring out loot pools is beyond the scope of what I'm hoping to accomplish right now. ^^;; And yeah, I know it's basically impossible for me to get enough data points on my own for any fine tuning, so I'm just trying to figure out IF I can figure out that windows exist or not for now.

  15. #15
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    So. Just wrapped up my last ticket run and I'm still seeing some pretty obvious patterns to the loot types throughout the 9 days worth that I recorded.. Not enough evidence to prove anything absolutely, but I'd say there is enough there to discount the "true RNG + full loot table" possibility. I have a couple ideas about what kind of model they could be using, but need a helluva lot more data points than what I can possibly provide on my own in order to pin down which timeframe windows are being used. :/

    Lucky me though, Wanted Dial announced for December! :D
    Due to the total possible pool for it being both strictly defined and very small, I'm hoping I can come up with some sort of useful results for it. I'm counting a total of 56 UNMs, so it should be easier to track possible patterns than something unknown like the JB ticket at least... At least I'm hoping so... orz

    Any suggestions for methods or tracking points that I'm not already doing?
    How many characters would I need to have involved total in order to prove/disprove each of the various possible time windows w/in a reasonable confidence level?
    How many characters would I need to have involved total in order to determine how the loot table works, for a full-list loot model?
    How many characters would I need to have involved total in order to determine how the loot table works, for a limited loot model?

    Any/all constructive feedback is welcome. :D

  16. #16
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    In terms of unity dial, I definitely noticed a pattern in logging in in quick succession with my mules.

    It seemed to me that the different boxes are on a fixed list that is server wide. As players access the box, it cycles. There are multiple copies of each box on the list. It tends to go from garbage mobs to good mobs (basically in their order on the unity list, essentially). Once I noticed this, I'd wait awhile if one of my mules got a garbage box, often standing by the box till someone popped their item so I could see where the list was generally at. While it wasn't possible to eliminate getting garbage boxes entirely, I did start getting better quality boxes overall. Still random as you don't know how many other people have grabbed a box and you can't time it precisely but if people are getting iron horn baldurno boxes or whatever, waiting a couple minutes is worth a shot. I ended up getting 4 items from 135 mobs (though one was a double) using just 5 characters, vs the previous one only getting 1 item from 135 mobs. I could have just been luckier in terms of getting items out of the boxes - I did get pretty good conversion... but still.

    It could have been coincidence but the number of times I'd get two of the same box in a row after logging in in quick succession, or get the same box someone else just popped made me believe there was a pattern. The increase in luck led me to stick to it.

    I've never noticed a pattern in the special dial though. But the unity boxes are such a small list - maybe it's easier to catch a pattern.

  17. #17
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    And it begins! Wanted Dial (and all non-Chocobo-related campaigns) are live! \o/
    Spreadsheet link is the same, just added a new sheet. All are welcome to contribute. ^^
    Format is: ROE > Game Day > Game Time > Real Date (JST) > Real Time (JST) > Item Name (NM name only. don't need the "..'s coffer") > Server > Notes

    I'm also including the info for coffers I'm seeing popped by others while standing around the gobbie, but can't be sure of exact times, so if you do the same, include the realtime you saw it popped and note that it was Observed so we can filter later on.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyarlko View Post
    And it begins! Wanted Dial (and all non-Chocobo-related campaigns) are live! \o/
    Spreadsheet link is the same, just added a new sheet. All are welcome to contribute. ^^
    Format is: ROE > Game Day > Game Time > Real Date (JST) > Real Time (JST) > Item Name (NM name only. don't need the "..'s coffer") > Server > Notes

    I'm also including the info for coffers I'm seeing popped by others while standing around the gobbie, but can't be sure of exact times, so if you do the same, include the realtime you saw it popped and note that it was Observed so we can filter later on.
    Vanquish Arcana > Firesday > 01:00 > 10:59am CST > ????? > Warblade Beak > Quetzalcoatl > Scroll of Blizzaja NPC'd for 9k free gil yay!

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