2020 Democratic Primary Clown Car Special II: 365 Days of Busing

[archibaldcrane]

Swalwell is out. Only 77 more Democrats to decide between.

hold up

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/stat...54937689083904

[Kaslo]

78*

[archibaldcrane]

how the hell is Buttigieg outraising everyone

Warren and Sanders, who also has essentially spurned the fundraising circuit, have both managed to fund their campaigns and outraise rivals like Harris through donations online. They also were within range of Pete Buttigieg, who raised a pack-leading $25 million but who attended about 50 high-dollar fundraisers plus 20 other fundraisers with lower ticket prices in the second quarter.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...aisers-1400058

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[6souls]

hold up

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/stat...54937689083904

https://twitter.com/TomSteyer/status...79342680637440

[6souls]

https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_regi...ial_candidates

Btw, there is over 700 people running for president across all of the parties.

[zoobernut]

Haha Suq Madiq running for the "Right to Life" party. Chocolate Pancakes running as a Republican. Found Cocaine and Internet Beef on the list of candidates too.

[D44kpunk]

Swalwell is out. Only 77 more Democrats to decide between.

death to old people didnt catch on as well as he hoped

[Andalusian girls]

the RCP aggregate has a full suite of post-debate polls now and the results are as follows

Biden 27.1
Sanders 15.3
Harris 15.0
Warren 13.7
Buttigieg 5.0

p interesting, Warren and Harris are both rolling with unprecedented highs and Kamala is in a statistical deadheat with Bernie for 2nd place. the oldsters have both experienced sizable decline with Biden dropping -14.3 from a post-announcement 41.4 high and Bernie -8.7 from a pre-Biden-announcment 24.0 high. Pete has experienced a smaller -3.4 decline but given how small his numbers always were that represents a far higher proportion of support.

all in all a clear tightening of the race without significant separation between 2-4, and though Biden remains the frontrunner his lead over 2nd place has more than halved from 26.8 to 11.8.

[archibaldcrane]

I saw it put best that there's a perfect 2x2 matrix of candidates

OWG (old white guy)
Biden Bernie
NOWG
Warren Harris

Leftist
Bernie Warren
Not Leftist
Biden Harris

You can combine OWG/NOWG and Leftist/Not Leftist however you want and get your preferred candidate

[archibaldcrane]

Poll of Iowa/NH/SC (first 3 primary states)

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1...432806400?s=19

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[archibaldcrane]

By state they have Buttigieg winning Iowa (Warren 2nd), Bernie winning NH (Warren 2nd) and Biden winning SC (Harris second)

With all 5 candidates doing 13% or better in each of the 3 states except for Buttigieg in SC (6%)

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[archibaldcrane]

stop

I can only get so hard

[Andalusian girls]

Pete at 25% in Iowa while limping along at 5% nationally is lowkey extremely impressive, to the extent it seems untenable or the result of bad polling. give me more Iowa polls pollsters.

and those numbers look terrible for Biden. if he eats successive third place or worse losses in Iowa and New Hampshire Kamala should be able to grab South Carolina and that will be that for the man.

[archibaldcrane]

I truly fear that if Warren and Bernie are both still running by South Carolina that Harris is going to be the next president.

[Andalusian girls]

she would be extremely well-positioned for when the South heavy + California Super Tuesday rolls around yes.

the path is fairly narrow for your gal tbh, she needs Berner's leftists (and the Northeast they can deliver) + Biden to remain viable enough to prevent Kamala from consolidating the black Democrats who determine Southern primaries, and prolly for Pete's midwest appeal to not appeal so heavily to Iowans lest it spark a liberal surge for him. then again that surge may come at the expense of the many Harris voters who are not loyal to her and diminish her margins in a bourgeoisie place like California. multitudinous moving parts.

[archibaldcrane]

Yeah it's a mess.

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[Fiye]

Hoping that Bernie makes a suicide pact with Warren/vice versa.

[archibaldcrane]

But the pact needs to trigger after Iowa at the latest. A leftist needs to win both Iowa and New Hampshire for "momentum" going into Super Tuesday so they can compete in California and Texas to offset a wipeout in the SEC.

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[archibaldcrane]

The other problem right now is that Warren supporters have Harris as their second choice (and then Bernie) and Bernie supporters have Biden as #2 (and then Warren). The question of "which centrist is most dangerous" is crucial to this pact.

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[Fiye]

I'd rather harris over biden tbh