2020 Democratic Primary Clown Car Special II: 365 Days of Busing

[Melena]

I think a lot of people are that way. I'm currently in the order of Warren > Harris > Biden > Sanders

[BerenTebogo]

We need more MA polls for people to see that nobody in MA wants Warren to be president

[Moss]

Idk how much of this is common knowledge but here in Harris's home base of Oakland she is despised as a fairweather sellout and for her record as a DA

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Andalusian girls]

shocking that Oakland/Berkeley don't like law enforcement officials

[archibaldcrane]

The only California poll taken (from early June) has Harris in 4th in California.

I think "how do you perform in your home state" is pretty overrated, although for a delegate rich state like California it matters. Nobody cares what the Dems in Massachusetts who love to vote for Republican governors think about Warren.

[archibaldcrane]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/st...545277952?s=19

:jack nicholson nodding.gif:

That's the first NBC/WSJ poll this cycle, expect it to be added to the RCP average soon.

[Andalusian girls]

well Yang's voter share has increased by 100% clearly he has big mo on his side

[D44kpunk]

well Yang's voter share has increased by 100% clearly he has big mo on his side

damn straight

[archibaldcrane]

disregard, ISC

[Gryffes]

Some new polling out today.

Nationally Biden still in 1st, warren 2nd, bernie/harris tied behind, buttigieg at 5% ish.

Also IO/NH/SC/ updated,

Buttigieg in 1st in Iowa ( but it's from a poorly rated pollster ), however it backs up the idea that he's dumping all his money there and hoping to snowball off the media attention a win would bring him.

Bernie 1st in NH with warren close behind ( 26-24% )

Biden very ahead in SC, w/ no other candidate clearing the 15% threshold.

No new polling from California in over a month and it's the most important early state :/ Anyone who fails to clear the 15% hurdle in Cali is effectively eliminated.

[D44kpunk]

not sure we will see any more dramatic change until the debate at the end of this month

[archibaldcrane]

Thread:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/...600334858?s=19

Bernie appears to be seeing the race clearly, has no plans to challenge Warren.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[D44kpunk]

old guy fight inc, swalwell obtained his primary objective. the olds will die while fighting eachother

[archibaldcrane]

It seems likely that the September debate will be 10 candidates. You need 2% in at least 4 qualifying polls and 130k+ donors to qualify.

Biden
Warren
Sanders
Harris
Buttigieg

are in for sure

Booker
Castro
Klobuchar
Yang
O'Rourke

will probably hit both thresholds as well (it's possible Yang or Castro don't make it because they don't get enough 2% polls, each only has 1 so far)

Very unlikely anyone else gets in - none of the rest have any 2% polls or 130k+ donors. Tulsi is the only one I could conceivably see a path for but still that polling hurdle is high for her. I assume the other 12 or whatever will all drop out by then, curious if any others drop out before the next debate like Swalwell did or if Gravel or Steyer can make the next debate on July 30-31st (Gravel is close to 65k donors apparently).

[Salodin]

This next debate is so key for anyone not in the top 5 jfc

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Salodin]

Harris secured her spot based on one debate performance. Inc a dozen politicians trying to accomplish the same in a few weeks.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[archibaldcrane]

Wonder when we get to see the draws for debate #2? Not sure what the qualification deadline is.

[BerenTebogo]

Wonder when we get to see the draws for debate #2? Not sure what the qualification deadline is.

It's the 16th or so iirc. The deadline anyway.

[archibaldcrane]

Warren 22%
Bernie 20%
Biden 19%
Harris 15%
Buttigieg 13%

New New Hampshire poll out today. The problem with the suicide pact narrative is that if Bernie were to drop out with numbers like this, and more of his supporters go to Biden than to Warren it could hurt her (although help her vs. Harris).

[archibaldcrane]

It's the 16th or so iirc. The deadline anyway.

Looks like the madman Gravel gonna do it

http://www.graveldonorcount.com