we went 3-1 ATS last week (I had the bills +3.5 so f u), and the trend of road teams covering in the first round or even winning outright continues
here’s another trend for you: over the past like 8 years or so, 1 and 2 seeds dominate this round straight up (i don’t know the ATS lines and refuse to learn)
anywho
1. fuck kork coupons and the vikings. now that that’s out of the way, the Vikings defensive line played well last week against the saints, and they should continue that against the 49ers. i wonder how much of that game was due to brees not looking great though, and if the Vikings can contain the 9ers receivers/kittle. i am sticking to my guns and telling cousins to fuck off tho, 9ers -7
2. the titans played well last week in putting up 14 points against the pats defense and holding their offense back as well. the issue is the ravens have a strong defense also, and a much better offense. i am not sure how well tannehill/henry play in this game, and I think the titans can keep it close with a ball control type offense. that being said, I think the ravens offense has no problems here, and they start to take the titans run game out of the picture by the half. ravens -9.5
3. the line for chiefs Texans is also -9.5, and i like the favorite here as well. give andy Reid all the crap you want, but he’s good after a bye, and if you watched that Texans game last week, he will probably pull obriens pants down in this one. the Texans oline is still garbage as watson got sacked 192 times last week and should have basically died on that last scramble. the chiefs offense is not going to be shut down at home like jash allen either. chiefs -9.5
4. we want the ball and we’re going to score. packers -4.5, fuck the Seahawks who could barely beat a team of backups and a one-legged qb. archi if your boy ar12 fucks this up then you need to scroll through every post you’ve ever made and compile all his great stats, write them down on a piece of paper, then light the paper on fire and hold it above your head so the burning ashes land directly in your eyes
TO RECAP, ALL FAVORITES, THIS WILL CLEARLY NOT HAPPEN
9ers -7 (i might be more inclined to bet the 9ers by 6-10 window, maybe this will fall to 6.5 tomorrow)
ravens -9.5
chiefs -9.5
packers -4.5