{COVID-19} Coronavirus Pandemic II: Easter is Being Rescheduled to July 15th

[archibaldcrane]

Clearly not. Lol

For that matter I don't really have a proper scale of one in my mind either.

Nimitz class carriers are a little longer than a full size cruise ship (or, longer than 3 football fields)

[Roranora]

insert graphic of all the world's aircraft carriers

[Boyiee]

Uh, hate to be a downer, but 50% infection rate is 175,000,000 people. 2% death rate is 3.5 MILLION people in the US alone.

Somebody please tell me I am doing this math wrong...

Correct. But his number, even if he didn't mean to, seems to coincide directly with people with underlying health risks. I did some math a month ago when someone on Facebook was like LOL 98% WILL BE FINE ITS JUST A FLU AND UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS ONLY SHOW ME A HEALTHY PERSON THAT DIED, but you know HIPPA and all so... Anyway, If you assume there are ~30mil Americans with diabetes and use only that underlying condition (since it's a high risk one) you get a low end number of 15mil infected and 2% mortality equals around 340-350k deaths. Does hypertension mean high risk? Then it's a million deaths.

I think 200k is an extremely low end number personally, and if we get anywhere near that we should be really grateful. This has the potential to go well into the millions in America alone.

Edit: yes I know statistics and math doesn't work exactly like this but it's terrifying and paints a really grim picture that I wish more people would see. There are still group gatherings going on here, my wife and I are essential, kids and babies are dying now as well as teens and sub 50 adults. We'll be exposed for sure, I got 60-70yo parents in Florida I'd like to see again.

[Rhyis.]

This, plus assuminng it gets as worse as 175,000,000 infections you may expect repeat cases where the result would be much worse than 3,5M.

Not to mention, 2% is way optimistic compared to what Spain and Italy is current having. 175M infections would seriously strain the hospital capacity (even if you assume the number spreads throughout the whole year) and ultimately reduce the quality of care people receive. With 100,000 you run out of toilet papers..imagine 175M. Then 2% would be a really optimistic scenario.

A more optimistic view would be people obeying the quarantine rules, virus slows down in summer and we develop a method to deal with it by the next attack. Crossing fingers for this one.

The current morality rate in America is 1.92%. 1-3% was the estimated mortality rate when all this began.

Also to dive into this further, the age demographic of mortality in SARS went as follows:

less than 1% for people younger than 25
6% for those aged 25 to 44
15% for those aged 45 to 64
50% for people 65 or older

You can assume this will be similar.

[Zealot]

Chris Cuomo tests positive for C-19.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Andalusian girls]

insert graphic of all the world's aircraft carriers

you never know when you'll have to rule all the world's seas simultaneously

[kuronosan]

I'm hearing people say some Nobel Laureate is predicting a milder course and that it will be over sooner rather than later. Michael Levitt, I think his name is?

[Roranora]

Uh, hate to be a downer, but 50% infection rate is 175,000,000 people. 2% death rate is 3.5 MILLION people in the US alone.

Somebody please tell me I am doing this math wrong...

Kindly correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe 50% infection rate means each individual infects only 50% of the individuals he/she would without any social distancing measures. It's basically a value set in simulations. A 50% infection rate may only result in some 40% of the population being infected. Now, whether or not our measures are actually reducing the infection rate to ~50% remains to be seen. In actuality our infection rate may be higher. If we could somehow achieve a 25% infection rate, that would be fantastic and likely require much more strict measures than we currently see.

100% infection rate is the rate of spread with no social distancing or transmissibility measures taken. It doesn't explicitly mean 100% of the population is or will be infected--although the number of infected would approach that value.

[Mayareira]

The current morality rate in America is 1.92%. 1-3% was the estimated mortality rate when all this began.

A bit early to tell for the US. 15 days ago reported cases were only 3000, meaning an overwhelming majority of them were diagnosed/caught the disease rather recently and they are still in the window of 14 very critical days. Just 3 days ago the fatality rate has doubled in a single day.

Everyone should be super-vigilant and careful at this stage. A month later we will probably have a more accurate ratio at hand.

[Xno Kappa]

I got nothing to say. The Navy's gonna Navy though. Stubborn as shit until someone gets hurt or someone breaks protocol. I've told my dudes still on the boat, if one person gets it, the whole boat's getting it so please be careful.

It's not even exclusive to the Navy. A ton of Army and Marine units still have normal PT schedules and are continuing to plan to go/are in the field. There is no cohesive guidance coming from the pentagon whatsoever other than a stop-movement for most bases.

[Krandor]

It's not even exclusive to the Navy. A ton of Army and Marine units still have normal PT schedules and are continuing to plan to go/are in the field. There is no cohesive guidance coming from the pentagon whatsoever other than a stop-movement for most bases.

Coast Guard is being just as stupid. Like I said we've already been told by another unit in Alaska that we aren't allowed to pull in during our next patrol, but that's solely from the base commander there because HQ/District levels of command aren't doing a fucking thing other then the blanket restrictions on transfers.

But apparently an entire unit going on patrol from one of the hot zones to some of most the isolated parts of the US is cool. To say nothing that at last check it's apparently gonna be A-Ok for us to do boardings/inspections of fishing vessels in the area.

[Rhyis.]

I'd imagine all forms of military are probably the worst jobs during a pandemic. Protocols change slowly, if at all. I bet daily formation marches still continue.

[6souls]

Video mentions that NYC ordered 45 refrigerated trucks for morgue overflow.

[Krandor]

I'd imagine all forms of military are probably the worst jobs during a pandemic. Protocols change slowly, if at all. I bet daily formation marches still continue.

I'm still getting paid the same and am only showing up to work once or twice a week right now so I've got that going for me.

There were already massive issues related to the scheduling on this next deployment (that would take far too long to explain here) before a global pandemic broke out, so it's been a big adventure.

[Abandon]

The Roosevelt is going poorly.... https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...h-15167883.php

Captain understands the problem. They can not distance, 4000+ individuals on a god damn carrier.

Here's the result of no support to the Roosevelt:


Abandon, AoE, where ya'll at better not say USS TR

I'm alive. Carriers on deployment with a full carrier air wing will house nearly 6k people. couple that with the supporting strike group, and you have potentially 8k people getting this within weeks even while underway. my hospital supplied the majority of the manpower on the USNS Comfort, so i have guys that actually work for me on that boat... my hopes are not high that they come back 100% okay. the military is doing a SHIT job of keeping our people safe, all in support of the "mission"

I'm currently working every other weekday on reduced hours, but i work in HR, so i still have 100+ people come in daily. I've already updated my will, i dont expect my office to remain healthy.

[Mayareira]

837 new deaths in Italy in last 24 hours. Today death count is 12,428.

[Rhyis.]

they should really stop kissing each others cheeks

[shepardG]

I'm alive. Carriers on deployment with a full carrier air wing will house nearly 6k people. couple that with the supporting strike group, and you have potentially 8k people getting this within weeks even while underway. my hospital supplied the majority of the manpower on the USNS Comfort, so i have guys that actually work for me on that boat... my hopes are not high that they come back 100% okay. the military is doing a SHIT job of keeping our people safe, all in support of the "mission"

I'm currently working every other weekday on reduced hours, but i work in HR, so i still have 100+ people come in daily. I've already updated my will, i dont expect my office to remain healthy.

Grim news my brother Yeah, that mission... still going strong over here in Afghanistan.... Fuck man. I hope your youngin's stay safe as they can. Tell em not to be fucking hero's ... for what good it'll do.

[6souls]

Andrew Cuomo's brother Chris, a CNN employee, has tested positive.

[Boyiee]

Passaic FD just lost a FF/EMT to covid today.