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  1. #121
    Duplicitous Jew with Political Aspirations
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    I simply refuse to believe it, I am buckled in for four more years, or however many until whatever is clearly killing Trump does the job.

  2. #122
    Caesar Salad
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zealot View Post
    I simply refuse to believe it, I am buckled in for four more years, or however many until whatever is clearly killing Trump does the job.
    Dude I'm the same. Down by double digits in florida? I don't believe it must fight the good fight til the bloody end cause the alternative is 4 more years of this shit

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  3. #123

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    once again archi with his reckless sowing of confidence around here

  4. #124
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roranora View Post
    once again archi with his reckless sowing of confidence around here
    You should see congress

  5. #125
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    He just needs the enough votes in the right states again. Bless you based electoral college.

  6. #126
    Kevin Chang
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lokus View Post
    He just needs the enough votes in the right states again. Bless you based electoral college.
    Luckily, Biden is an old white male so he's going to win MI and PA because Reagan Democrats can trust him.

  7. #127
    Kevin Chang
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    However there is a good chance Trump outperforms the margin of error because a lot of people won't own up to voting for him, which affects the polling. Like I'm skeptical that Iowa is as close as it seems and that Florida is a double digit race or even that Georgia is in play. But I think that Biden easily wins PA/MI barring some catastrophe. Then he only needs to pick up WI or AZ, which should be easy if the GOP has to split its attention to leaking water in all these other states.

  8. #128
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gredival View Post
    However there is a good chance Trump outperforms the margin of error because a lot of people won't own up to voting for him, which affects the polling.
    Wild citation needed

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by archibaldcrane View Post
    Wild citation needed
    Fair warning: It’s a spicy sauce.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9569121.html

  10. #130
    Kevin Chang
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    Quote Originally Posted by archibaldcrane View Post
    Wild citation needed
    The idea that he outperforms the margin is me spitballing. Last time around here was within the margin of error.

    The fact people won't admit there are voting for him? That's from this poll

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ute-of-america

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  11. #131
    Duplicitous Jew with Political Aspirations
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    Also don't forget GOP polling tactics include suppressing their own votes to make it seem like their candidate is behind.

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  12. #132
    The Optimistic Asshole
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    That turnout model assumption tho.

  13. #133
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gredival View Post
    The idea that he outperforms the margin is me spitballing. Last time around here was within the margin of error.

    The fact people won't admit there are voting for him? That's from this poll

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ute-of-america

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    I don't mean to gatekeep too hard but that poll wasn't even deemed worth of 538's quite lax polling aggregate standards. It's nonsense lol.

  14. #134
    Kevin Chang
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    Quote Originally Posted by archibaldcrane View Post
    I don't mean to gatekeep too hard but that poll wasn't even deemed worth of 538's quite lax polling aggregate standards. It's nonsense lol.
    I don't buy the general polling numbers because they are using an unrealistic model to compensate for the so called Trump shame, but I do believe that only 40% of Trump supporters would admit to it.

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  15. #135

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gredival View Post
    However there is a good chance Trump outperforms the margin of error because a lot of people won't own up to voting for him, which affects the polling. Like I'm skeptical that Iowa is as close as it seems and that Florida is a double digit race or even that Georgia is in play. But I think that Biden easily wins PA/MI barring some catastrophe. Then he only needs to pick up WI or AZ, which should be easy if the GOP has to split its attention to leaking water in all these other states.
    while Joe has commanding leads in Michigan and Wisconsin Pennsylvania remains extremely tight. can't treat the Blue Wall trio as a cohesive bloc any longer, and if any are to fall it shall be those silly Phillies.

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andalusian girls View Post
    while Joe has commanding leads in Michigan and Wisconsin Pennsylvania remains extremely tight. can't treat the Blue Wall trio as a cohesive bloc any longer, and if any are to fall it shall be those silly Phillies.
    PA is the one I'd be least worried about since he's going to talk about being raised in Scranton all the time.

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  17. #137
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    Also Trump performing outside the margin of error would require him being astronomically lucky, but that doesn't mean I think that he wins a state where he's behind 10% with a +/- 5% margin. It just means I think he can make those states way more competitive than 5%.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...s-biden-324210

  18. #138

    It's just so far away to get my hopes up. A lot can happen between now and Nov... and Biden isn't the best at controlling the narrative. I honestly think the best thing he can do is not talk, let Trump keep hurting himself, and every now and then have a pre-recorded message about whatever current issue is going on.

  19. #139
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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  20. #140
    I'll change yer fuckin rate you derivative piece of shit
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    538's general election national and state polling averages are now live (not the model yet)

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

    They have Biden up by 3 or more in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Arizona, and down less than 1 in Texas and Iowa...

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