I simply refuse to believe it, I am buckled in for four more years, or however many until whatever is clearly killing Trump does the job.
I simply refuse to believe it, I am buckled in for four more years, or however many until whatever is clearly killing Trump does the job.
once again archi with his reckless sowing of confidence around here
He just needs the enough votes in the right states again. Bless you based electoral college.
However there is a good chance Trump outperforms the margin of error because a lot of people won't own up to voting for him, which affects the polling. Like I'm skeptical that Iowa is as close as it seems and that Florida is a double digit race or even that Georgia is in play. But I think that Biden easily wins PA/MI barring some catastrophe. Then he only needs to pick up WI or AZ, which should be easy if the GOP has to split its attention to leaking water in all these other states.
Fair warning: It’s a spicy sauce.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9569121.html
The idea that he outperforms the margin is me spitballing. Last time around here was within the margin of error.
The fact people won't admit there are voting for him? That's from this poll
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ute-of-america
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Also don't forget GOP polling tactics include suppressing their own votes to make it seem like their candidate is behind.
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That turnout model assumption tho.
Also Trump performing outside the margin of error would require him being astronomically lucky, but that doesn't mean I think that he wins a state where he's behind 10% with a +/- 5% margin. It just means I think he can make those states way more competitive than 5%.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...s-biden-324210
It's just so far away to get my hopes up. A lot can happen between now and Nov... and Biden isn't the best at controlling the narrative. I honestly think the best thing he can do is not talk, let Trump keep hurting himself, and every now and then have a pre-recorded message about whatever current issue is going on.
Here's some election forecasting models
Economist: https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president
JHK Forecast:
https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/pr...tial-forecast/
538's general election national and state polling averages are now live (not the model yet)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/
They have Biden up by 3 or more in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Arizona, and down less than 1 in Texas and Iowa...