117th-118th United States Congress: Don't Be An Idiot

[Cail]

CT taking its sweet ass time. polls been closed for 2hrs and only 3% reporting

[Andalusian girls]

i have a couple friends in Atlanta they are horrified at the prospect of yet another run-off to decide control of the Senate

what does history say about who performs better in runoffs?

i would imagine republicans feel a much greater duty to vote and dems are prob more wishy washy and over it

there's not a whole lot of data that indicates partisan this way or that, but Georgia did have two run-offs in 2020 and Dems took both. the Warnock-Loeffler run-off doesn't tell us a lot because the first vote was a special election with a mess of candidates and Warnock winning a small plurality of 32% before winning the runoff by a couple points. Ossoff though had lost to Perdue 49.7%-47.9% (again there was a libertarian spoiler with 2.4%) in the general election before winning the run-off 50.6%-49.7%.

turnout is almost always down for runoffs, mostly depends on which party can get mobilized to vote.

[archibaldcrane]

Hopefully that freak Blake Masters doesn't fuck this up in Arizona

looking good for the astronaut so far

[Andalusian girls]

Fetterman is doing better than expected in Pennsylvania tho, and Kelly is rolling in Arizona. if New Hampshire and Washington hold along with Colorado, as they are expected to do, Dems might snag the magic 50 without Georgia or Nevada's slow ass returns (please god).

[kuronosan]

God I hate Moran.

[Dimmauk]

Fucking Greg Abbott won.

[Xno Kappa]

Did anyone really think Beto stood a chance?

[archibaldcrane]

Fetterman is doing better than expected in Pennsylvania tho, and Kelly is rolling in Arizona. if New Hampshire and Washington hold along with Colorado, as they are expected to do, Dems might snag the magic 50 without Georgia or Nevada's slow ass returns (please god).

Dems need either Nevada or Georgia to get to 50 though - Fetty is the only pickup, so they can't lose both Nevada and Georgia.

[Krandor]

No sane person would believe Beto has a chance. His super hardline gun control stance is a no go for victory in Texas.

[Andalusian girls]

NYT is estimating Fetterman will land +2.7 and Kelly +3.0 with about half the votes from each state in. good pick up in Pennsylvania if it holds.

[archibaldcrane]

Pennsylvania called for D-Shapiro (Gov)

[Andalusian girls]

Dems need either Nevada or Georgia to get to 50 though - Fetty is the only pickup, so they can't lose both Nevada and Georgia.

oh no

[Tyrath]

NYT is estimating Fetterman will land +2.7 and Kelly +3.0 with about half the votes from each state in.

[archibaldcrane]

Really surprised the needle hasn't slammed over to Republican House takeover - it's been in the low 70's for Republican % chances all night

[archibaldcrane]

Looks like the Kentucky abortion amendment is failing (pro-choice winning)

[Gwynplaine]

Democrat Adam Frisch has a small but significant lead over Lauren Boebert in a Republican leaning CO district.

https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/...114687488?s=20

Also OH-1 flip.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/s...977664513?s=20

[Dimmauk]

JD Vance is the projected winner. WTF Ohio

[Tyrath]

It's ohio, not surprised

[archibaldcrane]

NYT still predicts Boebert to win by 10, must be a severe backlog of very red areas

[Gwynplaine]

Vance won Ohio Senate but Tim Ryan's quality seems to have helped boost Dems in the House there.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/s...661289475?s=20