(Don't mean to seem pretentious by making this post, especially if my post count offends anyone)
For the past 4 years, I've started to put my "analysis" and picks of football on various forums, all pertaining to football. I saw a couple threads re: the nfl, and thought I'd make a thread where anyone/everyone can just post in, instead of having 4 or 5 floating around. For now, I'm just going to put my picks up, and reasons as to why I chose them, in the following categories: Weekly Picks, Top Offensive Players (by Position), Top Defensive Players (Comprehensive).
What I usually start doing, is gauge if the post actually gets read, and if it does, I'll start putting est. stats for players, probably by the 2nd or 3rd week. What I've done last year and the year before, is to put up a poll (editted weekly) to see who the readers pick.
Without further ado:
Weekly Picks: Week 1
* indicates "Game of the Week"
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Steelers 17 - Dolphins 10
ANALYSIS: Although the game has been played, the reason I chose the Steelers was because of their pass defense. I didn't expect Ronnie Brown to hit paydirt twice, nor did I expect Culpepper to throw two interceptions. The biggest surprise w as how well Charlie Batch played.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
PICK: Eagles 24 - Texans 13
ANALYSIS:The only touchdown for the Texans will come from a David Carr - Eric Moulds connection. Johnson will end the day with a good number of receptions, but won't break the 100-yard mark. No Texans receiver will. The Eagles still have a strong pass defense with Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown playing corners, and perennial Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins is still in good shape. The Eagles will get 3 of their touchdowns from the arm of Donovan McNabb (to three different receivers), one of which will be tight end L.J. Smith, who will lead the Eagles in receptions. Expect the Eagles to actually run in this game, against a defense that ranked dead last in Rush Y/G allowed in 2005 (143.9).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Definately start Donovan McNabb. I have him as a top-5 quarterback for this week. Other starters in your roster should definately include L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook. Unless you're thin on WRs, I would not start any Eagles WR. Dunta Robinson and Phillip Buchanon are solid cornerbacks, and either of them can keep up with Donte' Stallworth. If you must, I would play it conservative and start Reggie Brown over Stallworth. The only Texan to consider starting is Eric Moulds, maybe Andre Johnson -- Carr will throw a pair of interceptions, and Wali Lundy's season debut against defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson is far from a fantasy matchup made in heaven. Plus, expect him to split carries with Vernard Morency, and maybe even Ron Dayne.
New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Browns 17 - Saints 14
ANALYSIS: The Browns have an underrated pass defense, and Brees has a tendency to make bad decisions. The difference is, he doesn't have L.T. or Antonio Gates now to make up for it. I expect Brees to throw an interception late in the game, and the two touchdowns to come from Deuce McAllister (the second, possibly from Reggie Bush on a reception). The Browns, on the other hand, will welcome Kellen Winslow back as he plays big against a horrible New Orleans LB-corps, making one of the two Browns' TDs. The second will come from Reuben Droughns.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I like Reuben Droughns in this game. I expect him to gain around 160-total yards, including a goal-line touchdown. I expect Charlie Frye to put up some good numbers passing, with 4 strong options -- Droughns out the backfield, Jurivicius and Braylon Edwards wide, and Kellen Winslow as a second safety-valve. Definately start Droughns and Winslow, play Edwards or Jurivicius if your league plays 3 WRs.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
PICK: Patriots 20 - Bills 10
ANALYSIS: The Bills have a decent defense, which is why I don't have the Patriots running away with the game. Dillon will have a big game, splitting the Patriots' touchdown-total with Brady, who will connect with his current favorite target, TE Ben Watson. On the other side of the ball, the Bills will be happy to see Willis McGahee have a good performance, with about 100 total yards and a touchdown. The Bills will be playing catch-up the majority of the game, and that doesn't sound like a fun thing to do when J.P. Losman is the man you have behind center. The big question here is, how Losman will connect with the returning Peerless Price -- we already know from last year that he likes to throw the deep ball to Lee Evans. The only way I see the Bills upsetting the Patriots, is if the line gives time to Losman to throw the ball. If so, expect Evans to put up gaudy numbers, because we all know Rodney Harrison can hit, but can't cover worth shit. A little known fact is that the only team worse than the Patriots in pass-defense last year were the 49ers, but I still can't trust Losman.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Brady is probable going into the game, and so are both his WR-targets Chad Jackson & newly acquired Doug Gabriel. Regardless of Brady's injury report, he'll play, and he'll hook up with Ben Watson for a touchdown, who will lead the Pats in receptions, and yards. With Laurence Maloney also not 100%, and Dillon healthy and ready to go, expect Dillon to play strongly. Besides, the Pats will be leading for most of the game, which means more chances to give Dillon the rock. The heir to Adam Vinatieri, Gostkowski, will go 2/2 on FGs for the Patriots, and is a good choice if you just dropped Mike Vanderjagt.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Seahawks 24 - Lions 14
ANALYSIS: The only thing the Seahawks don't have this year, as opposed to last, is a Super Bowl trophy (and Steve Hutchinson). In his place, they gained WR Nate Burleson. The Lions will get their 2nd touchdown late, most probably from the great field positioning Pro Bowl return-man Eddie Drummond (who was out last year to injury). Detroit has a decent pass defense, and keep in mind both Dre' Bly and Fernando Bryant are healthy -- two of the underrated cornerbacks in the league. Regardless of pass-defense, you can't stop Shaun Alexander, who still has Walter Jones blocking for him. Yardage-wise, the game will be dominated by the Seahawks.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I expect all three touchdowns to come from Shaun Alexander, 2 rushing, 1 receiving. Still, I would not start Matt Hasselback. If the Seahawks blow the game wide open, they'll simply continue to run, and I don't see the Lions ever getting a lead in this game. The only receivers worth considering in this game are Nate Burleson, and Lions' Roy Williams. I don't see Burleson hitting paydirt, but I do think he'll serve well in any PPR league. Conversely, I see Williams getting one, if not both of the Lions' touchdowns, despite being double teamed for possibly the entire game. Neither Kitna nor Jones should be in your starting lineup. The only reason Kevin Jones should be considered is if you're in a PPR league, because Kitna will be forced to dump it off into the flats often. Start Seattle Defense, as they'll force turnovers.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Ravens 13 - Buccaneers 3
ANALYSIS: The Ravens ranked 9th against the run last season, giving up just under 100 Y/G. I expect them to move up to the top-5 this season, and this game is possibly a big reason why. The game I foresee for Cadillac Williams will be much like his former teammate Ronnie Brown against the Steelers, except he'll have no touchdowns. The reason being, not only did the Ravens get Haloti Ngata in the draft, but also acquired Trevor Pryce, a monster of a defensive end, from the Denver Broncos. Furthermore, Carnell will be playing without a healthy offensive line, and both Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are healthy heading into this game. The game in general will be simply dirty. You're pitting the 1st and 5th overall defenses last year against each other, so expect it to be full of turnovers, and full of punts.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: The only person worth starting in this game is Todd Heap. Other then that, you're in good hands if you have either of the two defenses, as they'll put up 14+ points each. Expect Simms and McNair to throw 4 interceptions between the two of them, and I don't see Galloway or Clayton burning the Baltimore backfield, nor do I see Mason or Mark Clayton getting by Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. If you can afford it, don't start anyone in this game, with the exception of Todd Heap.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Titans 17 - Jets 14
ANALYSIS: A game I can't wait to not watch. Two teams that can easily see themselves in the bottom of their respective divisions in the end of the year. The only thing worth watching, is the return of Chad Pennington, and how he connects with WR Lav. Coles, and whether or not Billy Volek will get into a fight with Kerry Collins.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: The healthiest Chris Brown we've seen in some time will be lining up for the Titans, and coincidentally, he's one of the only two Titans worth considering to start -- the other being Drew Bennett. If your league plays defensive players, definately get/start Pacman Jones, who I expect to put up 4 points from defense, and another 8-12 from returning kicks, seeing as how the Jets gave up almost 25 yards per kickoff return, and nearly 9 yards per punt return. Regardless of his concentration (or lack thereof), Pacman Jones can return kicks, and I would not be surprised if he returns one to the house tomorrow. On the Jets side of the ball, stay away from any running backs on that roster for the time being. Heading into the game, Derrick Blaylock is slated to be the starter, but you know Kevan Barlow will steal carries away from him. Despite the Jets improving their offensive line by getting both D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold in the first round of the draft, I don't see a reason to even consider a NYJ running back. The only person on the Jets roster to consider is Lav. Coles, whose name I refuse to spell. Even then, consider him as a 3rd WR option.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs *
PICK: Bengals 27 - Chiefs 24
ANALYSIS: My pick for the game of the week, for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, I think it's going to be high scoring. Secondly, everyone wants to see Carson Palmer in a game that matters, and what better venue than against the Kansas City Chiefs. But here's what makes this game all the better -- it'll start giving answers to the questions everyone's asking about KC. How will Herman Edwards do? How well will the KC offensive perform without offensive coordinator Al Saunders? How about the departure of Willie Roaf, and the return of Kyle Turley? How much will the Chiefs keep Gonzalez to block? And then you start getting to the questions about Larry Johnson -- how well will he play with the absence of both Roaf and perennial Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson? More importantly, can he produce like he did last year? Now that you've asked a million and one questions about the Chiefs offense, then you have to start wondering about their defense -- have they learned to tackle, finally? I'm sure they've at least gotten a bit better with the acquisition of Ty Law. I see a few scenarios for the end of this game. Either Shayne Graham hits the game winning field goal, Lawrence Tynes will miss, or Trent Green will fumble the ball on a drive to set the Chiefs up for a field goal. I can't wait to see this game, because on paper, the Chiefs defense certainly should be better -- keep in mind, despite their lack of tackling skills, they ranked 7th in the league against the run last year.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Everyone expects Carson Palmer to put up Manning-esque numbers, and he won't disappoint. I think he'll put up two touchdowns, at least one of which will go to Chad Johnson (naturally). Expect to see Rudi Johnson catch out of the backfield often, a role he'll have to get more and more accustomed to with the injury of Chris Perry. The big three (Carson + the two Johnsons) are must starts as always -- T.J. Who's Your Daddy might be injured, so keep an eye on that. Otherwise, he's one of the top tier-2 WRs. On the other side of the ball, I need not mention that Larry Johnson + Tony Gonzalez should start. If you're in a 3-WR league, start Eddie Kennison, or unless you don't have a better option in a 2-WR league, he's still a good choice, despite his age. I would stay away from Trent Green simply because the Cincinnati defense causes so many turnovers.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Panthers 21 - Falcons 20
ANALYSIS: I see this game being a lot closer than most people are saying it will be. Although I still think the Panthers will win, I think it will be on a game winning drive led by Jake Delhomme in the fourth. Both defenses should be among the top-5 in the end of the season, although according to a variety of analysts, the Falcons are still weak in the middle of their defensive line (despite adding Grady Jackson and John Abraham). The majority of the Falcons' offense will be on the shoulders of Warrick Dunn, who will have a tough time running in any direction against arguably the best defensive line in football, but he'll at least get a plethora of catches in the backfield from a flustered Vick. The other Falcons score will come off of a late fumble recovery-TD. This should be an excellent matchup of two powerful teams: Carolina is favored by many to win it all this year, and the Falcons have a legitimate chance at a wild-card slot if they can move the chains with a new offensive system.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Keyshawn Johnson, regardless of whether or not Steve Smith plays, and start DeShaun Foster -- although I think it will be his fumble that gives Atlanta 6 points. If you have the option, don't start either of the quarterbacks, unless your backup is Aaron Brooks. On the Atlanta side, I can easily see Warrick Dunn putting up 150- total yards, 90 rushing, and 60 receiving, and should do excellent in a PPR system. If healthy, Crumpler is always a good TE choice, but unless Vick runs it in for one of the Falcons' scores, he's going to dump it off to a back for a touchdown.
Denver Broncos @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Broncos 17 - Rams 14
ANALYSIS: The Broncos will start the season strong, with Tatum Bell and Mike Bell handling the running game, and new-WR Javon Walker lining up with Rod Smith to give Jake Plummer two solid options. Despite a dominant performance by the WRs of St. Louis -- Torry Holt (regardless of Champ Bailey covering him), Kevin Curtis, and Isaac Bruce, the Broncos will win off of a Jason Elam FG. Steven Jackson will play poorly despite the presence of new head coach Scott Linehan, and the double-eged sword that is Marc Bulger's arm will show itself once more -- he'll put up big numbers, but at least 2 interceptions to go with it. To make matters worse for the Rams, they ranked dead last in the NFC in rush-defense last year, giving up a little over 136 Y/G. Expect Shanahan to take advantage of this, and run often with the Bell-duo.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Tatum Bell should be a solid #2 RB for any fantasy team this week. This is one of those times you know Shanahan will give him the ball, and despite the departure of Gary Kubiak, Denver still has the power running game they've become defined as. Both backs will go over 100 total yards, as Denver will rush for nearly 200 yards total. Jake Plummer is a good start, he should get a touchdown to both of his WRs, Javon and ageless Rod Smith. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Stephen Jackson getting more than 100 total yards, and he won't have a touchdown to show for it: either because he'll fail to get in, or because newly acquired RB Stephen Davis will steal his goalline carry. Marc Bulger will put up around 250 yards, and a pair of touchdowns to go with his pair of picks. Always start Torry Holt, even on his bye week, and either Kevin Curtis or Isaac Bruce should be a decent 3rd option in 3-WR leagues -- if you get points for kick returns, Kevin Curtis has more of an upside than Bruce, as he will probably be returning kicks for the Rams as well.
Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jaguars 16 - Cowboys 7
ANALYSIS: A matchup of two stout defenses. I chose the Jaguars over the Cowboys because Rashean Mathis, one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the league (much like most of the Jaguars team) will blanket Owens. Why do I say this? Here's a man who held Marvelous Harrison to 3 receptions for 36 yards in the first matchup between the Jaguars and the Colts last year. The only Cowboys touchdown will be to Terry Glenn. The Cowboys will be one dimensional for the majority of the game, relying on Bledsoe's arm simply because neither Julius Jones nor Marion Barber III will find running room against the best defensive line in the AFC. The only touchdown on the side of the Jaguars will come from Byron Leftwich to Ernest Wilford, or TE Mercedes Lewis, as I'm sure Jack Del Rio doesn't want to give the ball to Fred Taylor in the red zone, and Matt Jones will almost certainly be double covered. The rest of the scoring will be on the leg of Josh Scobee. Oh, and by the way, expect Parcells to go bonkers when his kicker misses a field goal, and expect the Owens drama to begin because he didn't receive a touchdown.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Now, a counterpoint to what I mentioned about Rashean Mathis, is that in the second meeting between the Jags and Colts, Harrison had 6 receptions, some 150 yards, and 2 touchdowns. My defense to this? I have none =P Owens, although not nearly as talented as Harrison in my book, will still call for the ball, and he'll put up some numbers in any PPR league, as I predict him to get about 6-8 receptions, but I don't see him hitting 100 yards. Onto the other players -- don't start Fred Taylor unless you absolutely must, and steer clear of the Cowboys running game. The only worthwhile starters in this game for the Cowboys are Glenn and Owens, as Bledsoe will throw twice as many interceptions than touchdowns, which takes us one step closer to the era of Tony Romo.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Cardinals 31 - 49ers 7
ANALYSIS: Doesn't need much analysis. I'm gonna say what everyone else is saying with good reason: Cardinals will blow out the 49ers. The first 3 drives will be touchdowns, and the last one will come on an Edgerrin James run as they milk the clock. The only touchdown for the 49ers will come from Antonio Bryant beating Antrell Rolle, unless Eric Johnson shows up big (remember he was a Pro Bowl tight end two years ago? He's #1 on the depth chart -- keep that in mind before you start using Vernon Davis).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start any Cardinal. Don't start any 49er. Simple.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Bears 14 - Packers 13
ANALYSIS: Despite the Packers being the #1 defense in pass yardage, they gave up 22 touchdowns to the Bears' 10 in the passing game. What does that mean? Thomas Jones will get a receiving, and a rushing touchdown to further solidify his role as the back in Chicago. Other than that, Grossman will be picked off once or twice, which will cause further speculation as to whether or not he will be benched early in favor of Brian Griese. The Packers certainly won't rackup yards, but good field positioning, coupled with the return of the (2003-form, hopefully) Ahman Green will help Favre on a play-action touchdown pass to rookie Greg Jennings, who will have his first NFL reception be a touchdown. Donald Driver will be Donald Driver -- 6 receptions for 80 yards. Favre throws an interception which ends the game, a sight we've all seen too often.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Thomas Jones and Chicago defense, as they will compliment each other. Jones' tough running will keep his defensive teammates well rested and fresh, and Chicago will dominate in the time of possession. Expect a decent game from Ahman Green, roughly 8-10 points pending on league scoring. Start Donald Driver, a solid tier-2 WR for this week, and pick up Greg Jennings, or at least keep an eye on him.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
PICK: Colts 21 - Giants 17
ANALYSIS: Who needs a running game when you have Peyton Manning calling the shots? Especially against the Giants backfield which was 2nd to last in the NFC in pass defense last year, giving up 224 Y/G through the air. What's that spell? Nothing short of a 300-yard performance for football's best quarterback. What will keep the Giants in the game until late, will be the running of Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs. Barber has mentioned he wouldn't mind lessoning his carrying load, and Jacobs will certainly take advantage of that. I expect to see over 150 yards combined between the two running backs. Despite the fact that Eli Manning will get sacked at least 4 times by a combined effort of Corey Simon, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis, he'll find a way to get the ball to Plaxico Burress. The only interception I see in this game is from Eli in the 4th quarter. For Indianapolis, Dominic Rhodes will get the start, but expect to see Joseph Addai get 8-10 touches.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: It sucks to be me. I play against a Manning in four leagues this week. Three times against the older, and once against the younger. Anyway, start the three top Colts receivers -- Marvelous, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. I would not be surprised to see Stokley get one of Manning's TD passes. Don't start Rhodes or Addai, who will probably get 14 fantasy points between them. On the other side of the ball, it's a no brainer to mention to start Barber and Burress, but I would sit Eli Manning unless, again, as mentioned above your backup QB is Aaron Brooks.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Vikings 14 - Redskins 10
ANALYSIS: The Redskins aren't really as bad as they seemed to be in the preseason, but I don't see them beating the Vikings. They have a defense that causes turnovers, and should have a strong running game with one of the biggest offensive lines in football. The majority of the Redskin offense will come from the tough running of Ladell Betts and T.J. Duckett, backs that work perfectly in new offensive coordinator Al Saunders' system. Similarly, the running game of the Vikings is what will keep them in, as newly acquired RB Chester Taylor will get 20-25 touches on the ball, and should put up a solid performance in his Vikings debut. Brad Johnson is only a step better than Mark Brunell, both quarterbacks who have a lot of talent around them, but just suck ass. Well, Johnson isn't nearly as bad as Brunell, and will find Troy Williamson for a deep touchdown pass for the second (and last) Viking touchdown of the day.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Portis will be out -- if you're hurting for a RB, go for Ladell Betts off the waiver wire for this week, unless your league is half retarded and T.J. Duckett is a free agent. Start the Vikings defense, because they'll force turnovers. Start Chester Taylor confidently at a #2 RB slot, and my sleeper pick of this week is Troy Williamson, who most probably won't be covered by Shawn Springs because of his recent injury. Start Santana Moss and Chris Cooley confidently, but I'm hesitatnt to recommend either Lloyd or Randle El, because Brunell (as mentioned above) sucks ass.
San Diego Charges @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Chargers 35 - Raiders 21
ANALYSIS: Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Raiders to put up 21 points, but I don't think I'm giving enough to the Chargers. The #1 rush defense of last year will hold Raider's Lamont Jordan to under 100 yards, who will still find a way to get a touchdown either on a goalline carry, or on a reception. The other two Raiders touchdowns will be Brooks to Moss, but don't be fooled, I don't see what's stopping the Chargers from picking Brooks off at LEAST 3 times. LaDainian Tomlinson will be LaDainian Tomlinson, and put up 200 total yards, as Phillip Rivers will find himself passing often to the two best safety valves in football -- the aforementioned L.T. and Antonio Gates. Still, the reason for all the scoring is, as pathetic as the Raiders are against the run, the Chargers are against the pass. When you have L.T. and Moss on the two sides, you'll see why the game could get high scoring, quickly.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Tomlinson will get at least three touchdowns. One will most definately go to Gates, and the last one will either go again to L.T., or a defensive touchdown, because Brooks will certainly turn it over 2-4 times. Definately start the Chargers defense confidently, and the same goes for Randy Moss, who will flat out burn Quentin Jammer. The Chargers have noone to match up with Moss, and the Raiders will be playing from behind, which means Randy Moss will put up some ridonkulous numbers.
Top Players
Offense
Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner ARI
2. Peyton Manning IND
3. Donovan McNabb PHI
4. Carson Palmer CIN
5. Tom Brady NE
Runningback
1. LaDainian Tomlinson SD
2. Larry Johnson KC
3. Shaun Alexander SEA
4. Thomas Jones CHI
5. Edgerrin James ARI
Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss OAK
2. Marvin Harrison IND
3. Chad Johnson CIN
4. Torry Holt STL
5. Anquan Boldin ARI
Tight End
1. Ben Watson NE
2. Antonio Gates SD
3. Todd Heap BAL
4. Tony Gonzalez KC
5. Kellen Winslow CLE
Kicker
1. Josh Scobee JAX
2. Stephen Gostkowski NE
3. Matt Koenen ATL
4. Neil Rackers ARI
5. Nate Kaeding SD
Sleeper
1. Troy Williamson
2. Greg Jennings
3. Joe Jurivicus
4. Antonio Bryant
5. Ernest Wilford
Defense
Overall
1. Chicago
2. San Diego
3. Minnesota
4. Carolina
5. Denver
Players
1. Pacman Jones
2. Jon Vilma
3. Brian Urlacher
4. Ed Reed
5. Julius Peppers
Wow, that took me a damn long time to write+compile. I just hope someone reads+enjoys it, so hopefully I can do this weekly. Good luck to all fans out there, except those who root against the Eagles or Vikings, and good luck to you fantasy players.
EDIT: I forgot the CIN-KC Fantasy Outlook =P