The National Football League: 2006-2007 Season

[Tyr]

(Don't mean to seem pretentious by making this post, especially if my post count offends anyone)

For the past 4 years, I've started to put my "analysis" and picks of football on various forums, all pertaining to football. I saw a couple threads re: the nfl, and thought I'd make a thread where anyone/everyone can just post in, instead of having 4 or 5 floating around. For now, I'm just going to put my picks up, and reasons as to why I chose them, in the following categories: Weekly Picks, Top Offensive Players (by Position), Top Defensive Players (Comprehensive).

What I usually start doing, is gauge if the post actually gets read, and if it does, I'll start putting est. stats for players, probably by the 2nd or 3rd week. What I've done last year and the year before, is to put up a poll (editted weekly) to see who the readers pick.

Without further ado:

Weekly Picks: Week 1
* indicates "Game of the Week"


Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Steelers 17 - Dolphins 10
ANALYSIS: Although the game has been played, the reason I chose the Steelers was because of their pass defense. I didn't expect Ronnie Brown to hit paydirt twice, nor did I expect Culpepper to throw two interceptions. The biggest surprise w as how well Charlie Batch played.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
PICK: Eagles 24 - Texans 13
ANALYSIS:The only touchdown for the Texans will come from a David Carr - Eric Moulds connection. Johnson will end the day with a good number of receptions, but won't break the 100-yard mark. No Texans receiver will. The Eagles still have a strong pass defense with Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown playing corners, and perennial Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins is still in good shape. The Eagles will get 3 of their touchdowns from the arm of Donovan McNabb (to three different receivers), one of which will be tight end L.J. Smith, who will lead the Eagles in receptions. Expect the Eagles to actually run in this game, against a defense that ranked dead last in Rush Y/G allowed in 2005 (143.9).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Definately start Donovan McNabb. I have him as a top-5 quarterback for this week. Other starters in your roster should definately include L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook. Unless you're thin on WRs, I would not start any Eagles WR. Dunta Robinson and Phillip Buchanon are solid cornerbacks, and either of them can keep up with Donte' Stallworth. If you must, I would play it conservative and start Reggie Brown over Stallworth. The only Texan to consider starting is Eric Moulds, maybe Andre Johnson -- Carr will throw a pair of interceptions, and Wali Lundy's season debut against defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson is far from a fantasy matchup made in heaven. Plus, expect him to split carries with Vernard Morency, and maybe even Ron Dayne.

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Browns 17 - Saints 14
ANALYSIS: The Browns have an underrated pass defense, and Brees has a tendency to make bad decisions. The difference is, he doesn't have L.T. or Antonio Gates now to make up for it. I expect Brees to throw an interception late in the game, and the two touchdowns to come from Deuce McAllister (the second, possibly from Reggie Bush on a reception). The Browns, on the other hand, will welcome Kellen Winslow back as he plays big against a horrible New Orleans LB-corps, making one of the two Browns' TDs. The second will come from Reuben Droughns.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I like Reuben Droughns in this game. I expect him to gain around 160-total yards, including a goal-line touchdown. I expect Charlie Frye to put up some good numbers passing, with 4 strong options -- Droughns out the backfield, Jurivicius and Braylon Edwards wide, and Kellen Winslow as a second safety-valve. Definately start Droughns and Winslow, play Edwards or Jurivicius if your league plays 3 WRs.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
PICK: Patriots 20 - Bills 10
ANALYSIS: The Bills have a decent defense, which is why I don't have the Patriots running away with the game. Dillon will have a big game, splitting the Patriots' touchdown-total with Brady, who will connect with his current favorite target, TE Ben Watson. On the other side of the ball, the Bills will be happy to see Willis McGahee have a good performance, with about 100 total yards and a touchdown. The Bills will be playing catch-up the majority of the game, and that doesn't sound like a fun thing to do when J.P. Losman is the man you have behind center. The big question here is, how Losman will connect with the returning Peerless Price -- we already know from last year that he likes to throw the deep ball to Lee Evans. The only way I see the Bills upsetting the Patriots, is if the line gives time to Losman to throw the ball. If so, expect Evans to put up gaudy numbers, because we all know Rodney Harrison can hit, but can't cover worth shit. A little known fact is that the only team worse than the Patriots in pass-defense last year were the 49ers, but I still can't trust Losman.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Brady is probable going into the game, and so are both his WR-targets Chad Jackson & newly acquired Doug Gabriel. Regardless of Brady's injury report, he'll play, and he'll hook up with Ben Watson for a touchdown, who will lead the Pats in receptions, and yards. With Laurence Maloney also not 100%, and Dillon healthy and ready to go, expect Dillon to play strongly. Besides, the Pats will be leading for most of the game, which means more chances to give Dillon the rock. The heir to Adam Vinatieri, Gostkowski, will go 2/2 on FGs for the Patriots, and is a good choice if you just dropped Mike Vanderjagt.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Seahawks 24 - Lions 14
ANALYSIS: The only thing the Seahawks don't have this year, as opposed to last, is a Super Bowl trophy (and Steve Hutchinson). In his place, they gained WR Nate Burleson. The Lions will get their 2nd touchdown late, most probably from the great field positioning Pro Bowl return-man Eddie Drummond (who was out last year to injury). Detroit has a decent pass defense, and keep in mind both Dre' Bly and Fernando Bryant are healthy -- two of the underrated cornerbacks in the league. Regardless of pass-defense, you can't stop Shaun Alexander, who still has Walter Jones blocking for him. Yardage-wise, the game will be dominated by the Seahawks.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I expect all three touchdowns to come from Shaun Alexander, 2 rushing, 1 receiving. Still, I would not start Matt Hasselback. If the Seahawks blow the game wide open, they'll simply continue to run, and I don't see the Lions ever getting a lead in this game. The only receivers worth considering in this game are Nate Burleson, and Lions' Roy Williams. I don't see Burleson hitting paydirt, but I do think he'll serve well in any PPR league. Conversely, I see Williams getting one, if not both of the Lions' touchdowns, despite being double teamed for possibly the entire game. Neither Kitna nor Jones should be in your starting lineup. The only reason Kevin Jones should be considered is if you're in a PPR league, because Kitna will be forced to dump it off into the flats often. Start Seattle Defense, as they'll force turnovers.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Ravens 13 - Buccaneers 3
ANALYSIS: The Ravens ranked 9th against the run last season, giving up just under 100 Y/G. I expect them to move up to the top-5 this season, and this game is possibly a big reason why. The game I foresee for Cadillac Williams will be much like his former teammate Ronnie Brown against the Steelers, except he'll have no touchdowns. The reason being, not only did the Ravens get Haloti Ngata in the draft, but also acquired Trevor Pryce, a monster of a defensive end, from the Denver Broncos. Furthermore, Carnell will be playing without a healthy offensive line, and both Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are healthy heading into this game. The game in general will be simply dirty. You're pitting the 1st and 5th overall defenses last year against each other, so expect it to be full of turnovers, and full of punts.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: The only person worth starting in this game is Todd Heap. Other then that, you're in good hands if you have either of the two defenses, as they'll put up 14+ points each. Expect Simms and McNair to throw 4 interceptions between the two of them, and I don't see Galloway or Clayton burning the Baltimore backfield, nor do I see Mason or Mark Clayton getting by Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. If you can afford it, don't start anyone in this game, with the exception of Todd Heap.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Titans 17 - Jets 14
ANALYSIS: A game I can't wait to not watch. Two teams that can easily see themselves in the bottom of their respective divisions in the end of the year. The only thing worth watching, is the return of Chad Pennington, and how he connects with WR Lav. Coles, and whether or not Billy Volek will get into a fight with Kerry Collins.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: The healthiest Chris Brown we've seen in some time will be lining up for the Titans, and coincidentally, he's one of the only two Titans worth considering to start -- the other being Drew Bennett. If your league plays defensive players, definately get/start Pacman Jones, who I expect to put up 4 points from defense, and another 8-12 from returning kicks, seeing as how the Jets gave up almost 25 yards per kickoff return, and nearly 9 yards per punt return. Regardless of his concentration (or lack thereof), Pacman Jones can return kicks, and I would not be surprised if he returns one to the house tomorrow. On the Jets side of the ball, stay away from any running backs on that roster for the time being. Heading into the game, Derrick Blaylock is slated to be the starter, but you know Kevan Barlow will steal carries away from him. Despite the Jets improving their offensive line by getting both D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold in the first round of the draft, I don't see a reason to even consider a NYJ running back. The only person on the Jets roster to consider is Lav. Coles, whose name I refuse to spell. Even then, consider him as a 3rd WR option.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs *
PICK: Bengals 27 - Chiefs 24
ANALYSIS: My pick for the game of the week, for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, I think it's going to be high scoring. Secondly, everyone wants to see Carson Palmer in a game that matters, and what better venue than against the Kansas City Chiefs. But here's what makes this game all the better -- it'll start giving answers to the questions everyone's asking about KC. How will Herman Edwards do? How well will the KC offensive perform without offensive coordinator Al Saunders? How about the departure of Willie Roaf, and the return of Kyle Turley? How much will the Chiefs keep Gonzalez to block? And then you start getting to the questions about Larry Johnson -- how well will he play with the absence of both Roaf and perennial Pro Bowl FB Tony Richardson? More importantly, can he produce like he did last year? Now that you've asked a million and one questions about the Chiefs offense, then you have to start wondering about their defense -- have they learned to tackle, finally? I'm sure they've at least gotten a bit better with the acquisition of Ty Law. I see a few scenarios for the end of this game. Either Shayne Graham hits the game winning field goal, Lawrence Tynes will miss, or Trent Green will fumble the ball on a drive to set the Chiefs up for a field goal. I can't wait to see this game, because on paper, the Chiefs defense certainly should be better -- keep in mind, despite their lack of tackling skills, they ranked 7th in the league against the run last year.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Everyone expects Carson Palmer to put up Manning-esque numbers, and he won't disappoint. I think he'll put up two touchdowns, at least one of which will go to Chad Johnson (naturally). Expect to see Rudi Johnson catch out of the backfield often, a role he'll have to get more and more accustomed to with the injury of Chris Perry. The big three (Carson + the two Johnsons) are must starts as always -- T.J. Who's Your Daddy might be injured, so keep an eye on that. Otherwise, he's one of the top tier-2 WRs. On the other side of the ball, I need not mention that Larry Johnson + Tony Gonzalez should start. If you're in a 3-WR league, start Eddie Kennison, or unless you don't have a better option in a 2-WR league, he's still a good choice, despite his age. I would stay away from Trent Green simply because the Cincinnati defense causes so many turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Panthers 21 - Falcons 20
ANALYSIS: I see this game being a lot closer than most people are saying it will be. Although I still think the Panthers will win, I think it will be on a game winning drive led by Jake Delhomme in the fourth. Both defenses should be among the top-5 in the end of the season, although according to a variety of analysts, the Falcons are still weak in the middle of their defensive line (despite adding Grady Jackson and John Abraham). The majority of the Falcons' offense will be on the shoulders of Warrick Dunn, who will have a tough time running in any direction against arguably the best defensive line in football, but he'll at least get a plethora of catches in the backfield from a flustered Vick. The other Falcons score will come off of a late fumble recovery-TD. This should be an excellent matchup of two powerful teams: Carolina is favored by many to win it all this year, and the Falcons have a legitimate chance at a wild-card slot if they can move the chains with a new offensive system.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Keyshawn Johnson, regardless of whether or not Steve Smith plays, and start DeShaun Foster -- although I think it will be his fumble that gives Atlanta 6 points. If you have the option, don't start either of the quarterbacks, unless your backup is Aaron Brooks. On the Atlanta side, I can easily see Warrick Dunn putting up 150- total yards, 90 rushing, and 60 receiving, and should do excellent in a PPR system. If healthy, Crumpler is always a good TE choice, but unless Vick runs it in for one of the Falcons' scores, he's going to dump it off to a back for a touchdown.

Denver Broncos @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Broncos 17 - Rams 14
ANALYSIS: The Broncos will start the season strong, with Tatum Bell and Mike Bell handling the running game, and new-WR Javon Walker lining up with Rod Smith to give Jake Plummer two solid options. Despite a dominant performance by the WRs of St. Louis -- Torry Holt (regardless of Champ Bailey covering him), Kevin Curtis, and Isaac Bruce, the Broncos will win off of a Jason Elam FG. Steven Jackson will play poorly despite the presence of new head coach Scott Linehan, and the double-eged sword that is Marc Bulger's arm will show itself once more -- he'll put up big numbers, but at least 2 interceptions to go with it. To make matters worse for the Rams, they ranked dead last in the NFC in rush-defense last year, giving up a little over 136 Y/G. Expect Shanahan to take advantage of this, and run often with the Bell-duo.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Tatum Bell should be a solid #2 RB for any fantasy team this week. This is one of those times you know Shanahan will give him the ball, and despite the departure of Gary Kubiak, Denver still has the power running game they've become defined as. Both backs will go over 100 total yards, as Denver will rush for nearly 200 yards total. Jake Plummer is a good start, he should get a touchdown to both of his WRs, Javon and ageless Rod Smith. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Stephen Jackson getting more than 100 total yards, and he won't have a touchdown to show for it: either because he'll fail to get in, or because newly acquired RB Stephen Davis will steal his goalline carry. Marc Bulger will put up around 250 yards, and a pair of touchdowns to go with his pair of picks. Always start Torry Holt, even on his bye week, and either Kevin Curtis or Isaac Bruce should be a decent 3rd option in 3-WR leagues -- if you get points for kick returns, Kevin Curtis has more of an upside than Bruce, as he will probably be returning kicks for the Rams as well.

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jaguars 16 - Cowboys 7
ANALYSIS: A matchup of two stout defenses. I chose the Jaguars over the Cowboys because Rashean Mathis, one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the league (much like most of the Jaguars team) will blanket Owens. Why do I say this? Here's a man who held Marvelous Harrison to 3 receptions for 36 yards in the first matchup between the Jaguars and the Colts last year. The only Cowboys touchdown will be to Terry Glenn. The Cowboys will be one dimensional for the majority of the game, relying on Bledsoe's arm simply because neither Julius Jones nor Marion Barber III will find running room against the best defensive line in the AFC. The only touchdown on the side of the Jaguars will come from Byron Leftwich to Ernest Wilford, or TE Mercedes Lewis, as I'm sure Jack Del Rio doesn't want to give the ball to Fred Taylor in the red zone, and Matt Jones will almost certainly be double covered. The rest of the scoring will be on the leg of Josh Scobee. Oh, and by the way, expect Parcells to go bonkers when his kicker misses a field goal, and expect the Owens drama to begin because he didn't receive a touchdown.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Now, a counterpoint to what I mentioned about Rashean Mathis, is that in the second meeting between the Jags and Colts, Harrison had 6 receptions, some 150 yards, and 2 touchdowns. My defense to this? I have none =P Owens, although not nearly as talented as Harrison in my book, will still call for the ball, and he'll put up some numbers in any PPR league, as I predict him to get about 6-8 receptions, but I don't see him hitting 100 yards. Onto the other players -- don't start Fred Taylor unless you absolutely must, and steer clear of the Cowboys running game. The only worthwhile starters in this game for the Cowboys are Glenn and Owens, as Bledsoe will throw twice as many interceptions than touchdowns, which takes us one step closer to the era of Tony Romo.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Cardinals 31 - 49ers 7
ANALYSIS: Doesn't need much analysis. I'm gonna say what everyone else is saying with good reason: Cardinals will blow out the 49ers. The first 3 drives will be touchdowns, and the last one will come on an Edgerrin James run as they milk the clock. The only touchdown for the 49ers will come from Antonio Bryant beating Antrell Rolle, unless Eric Johnson shows up big (remember he was a Pro Bowl tight end two years ago? He's #1 on the depth chart -- keep that in mind before you start using Vernon Davis).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start any Cardinal. Don't start any 49er. Simple.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Bears 14 - Packers 13
ANALYSIS: Despite the Packers being the #1 defense in pass yardage, they gave up 22 touchdowns to the Bears' 10 in the passing game. What does that mean? Thomas Jones will get a receiving, and a rushing touchdown to further solidify his role as the back in Chicago. Other than that, Grossman will be picked off once or twice, which will cause further speculation as to whether or not he will be benched early in favor of Brian Griese. The Packers certainly won't rackup yards, but good field positioning, coupled with the return of the (2003-form, hopefully) Ahman Green will help Favre on a play-action touchdown pass to rookie Greg Jennings, who will have his first NFL reception be a touchdown. Donald Driver will be Donald Driver -- 6 receptions for 80 yards. Favre throws an interception which ends the game, a sight we've all seen too often.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Thomas Jones and Chicago defense, as they will compliment each other. Jones' tough running will keep his defensive teammates well rested and fresh, and Chicago will dominate in the time of possession. Expect a decent game from Ahman Green, roughly 8-10 points pending on league scoring. Start Donald Driver, a solid tier-2 WR for this week, and pick up Greg Jennings, or at least keep an eye on him.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
PICK: Colts 21 - Giants 17
ANALYSIS: Who needs a running game when you have Peyton Manning calling the shots? Especially against the Giants backfield which was 2nd to last in the NFC in pass defense last year, giving up 224 Y/G through the air. What's that spell? Nothing short of a 300-yard performance for football's best quarterback. What will keep the Giants in the game until late, will be the running of Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs. Barber has mentioned he wouldn't mind lessoning his carrying load, and Jacobs will certainly take advantage of that. I expect to see over 150 yards combined between the two running backs. Despite the fact that Eli Manning will get sacked at least 4 times by a combined effort of Corey Simon, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis, he'll find a way to get the ball to Plaxico Burress. The only interception I see in this game is from Eli in the 4th quarter. For Indianapolis, Dominic Rhodes will get the start, but expect to see Joseph Addai get 8-10 touches.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: It sucks to be me. I play against a Manning in four leagues this week. Three times against the older, and once against the younger. Anyway, start the three top Colts receivers -- Marvelous, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark. I would not be surprised to see Stokley get one of Manning's TD passes. Don't start Rhodes or Addai, who will probably get 14 fantasy points between them. On the other side of the ball, it's a no brainer to mention to start Barber and Burress, but I would sit Eli Manning unless, again, as mentioned above your backup QB is Aaron Brooks.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Vikings 14 - Redskins 10
ANALYSIS: The Redskins aren't really as bad as they seemed to be in the preseason, but I don't see them beating the Vikings. They have a defense that causes turnovers, and should have a strong running game with one of the biggest offensive lines in football. The majority of the Redskin offense will come from the tough running of Ladell Betts and T.J. Duckett, backs that work perfectly in new offensive coordinator Al Saunders' system. Similarly, the running game of the Vikings is what will keep them in, as newly acquired RB Chester Taylor will get 20-25 touches on the ball, and should put up a solid performance in his Vikings debut. Brad Johnson is only a step better than Mark Brunell, both quarterbacks who have a lot of talent around them, but just suck ass. Well, Johnson isn't nearly as bad as Brunell, and will find Troy Williamson for a deep touchdown pass for the second (and last) Viking touchdown of the day.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Portis will be out -- if you're hurting for a RB, go for Ladell Betts off the waiver wire for this week, unless your league is half retarded and T.J. Duckett is a free agent. Start the Vikings defense, because they'll force turnovers. Start Chester Taylor confidently at a #2 RB slot, and my sleeper pick of this week is Troy Williamson, who most probably won't be covered by Shawn Springs because of his recent injury. Start Santana Moss and Chris Cooley confidently, but I'm hesitatnt to recommend either Lloyd or Randle El, because Brunell (as mentioned above) sucks ass.

San Diego Charges @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Chargers 35 - Raiders 21
ANALYSIS: Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Raiders to put up 21 points, but I don't think I'm giving enough to the Chargers. The #1 rush defense of last year will hold Raider's Lamont Jordan to under 100 yards, who will still find a way to get a touchdown either on a goalline carry, or on a reception. The other two Raiders touchdowns will be Brooks to Moss, but don't be fooled, I don't see what's stopping the Chargers from picking Brooks off at LEAST 3 times. LaDainian Tomlinson will be LaDainian Tomlinson, and put up 200 total yards, as Phillip Rivers will find himself passing often to the two best safety valves in football -- the aforementioned L.T. and Antonio Gates. Still, the reason for all the scoring is, as pathetic as the Raiders are against the run, the Chargers are against the pass. When you have L.T. and Moss on the two sides, you'll see why the game could get high scoring, quickly.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Tomlinson will get at least three touchdowns. One will most definately go to Gates, and the last one will either go again to L.T., or a defensive touchdown, because Brooks will certainly turn it over 2-4 times. Definately start the Chargers defense confidently, and the same goes for Randy Moss, who will flat out burn Quentin Jammer. The Chargers have noone to match up with Moss, and the Raiders will be playing from behind, which means Randy Moss will put up some ridonkulous numbers.

Top Players
Offense
Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner ARI
2. Peyton Manning IND
3. Donovan McNabb PHI
4. Carson Palmer CIN
5. Tom Brady NE

Runningback
1. LaDainian Tomlinson SD
2. Larry Johnson KC
3. Shaun Alexander SEA
4. Thomas Jones CHI
5. Edgerrin James ARI

Wide Receiver
1. Randy Moss OAK
2. Marvin Harrison IND
3. Chad Johnson CIN
4. Torry Holt STL
5. Anquan Boldin ARI

Tight End
1. Ben Watson NE
2. Antonio Gates SD
3. Todd Heap BAL
4. Tony Gonzalez KC
5. Kellen Winslow CLE

Kicker
1. Josh Scobee JAX
2. Stephen Gostkowski NE
3. Matt Koenen ATL
4. Neil Rackers ARI
5. Nate Kaeding SD

Sleeper
1. Troy Williamson
2. Greg Jennings
3. Joe Jurivicus
4. Antonio Bryant
5. Ernest Wilford

Defense
Overall
1. Chicago
2. San Diego
3. Minnesota
4. Carolina
5. Denver

Players
1. Pacman Jones
2. Jon Vilma
3. Brian Urlacher
4. Ed Reed
5. Julius Peppers



Wow, that took me a damn long time to write+compile. I just hope someone reads+enjoys it, so hopefully I can do this weekly. Good luck to all fans out there, except those who root against the Eagles or Vikings, and good luck to you fantasy players.


EDIT: I forgot the CIN-KC Fantasy Outlook =P

[Fistandantilus]

Damn Tyr you have alot of time on your hands

Good info though, now I don't have to pay for FFL advice :D

edit- I forgot to call you a jinnius and ask you to have my babies

[Zigma]

http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/7...thatwd9rr9.jpg

[Tyr]

Nah, it was copy/paste with exception to the intro. I got good feedback in other forums, so I'm content 8)

[Bukkorosu]

All I know is that I've been a packers fan as long as I've been alive and I'll be damned if I see them lose to Chicago in the opener...

I actually went to the GB/Chicago game a cpl years back and was fortunate enough to get seats ON Lambeau field. Got to see Mckenzie pick one off about two feet in front of my face; one of the sweeter times of my life.

But yeah, Chicago is rock solid in the defensive department, but Favre is gunna make it happen tomorrow. Plus, Green's comeback is going to be legendary. Before he was on IR last year people thought he was going to be the RB to break records. I'm sure he hasn't just been sitting on his ass this entire time. Expect to see him come out for a 150+ yard game tomorrow (read: two break-away touchdown runs).

Cheese heads for life.

[XxSlusherxx]

[quote="Tyr"](I'm pretty lazy so I'm just going to cut and paste to compare my predictions with yours)

I'm just posting this for fun. not really compition but we can compare one anothers picks, if nothing else in 4-6 weeks

Without further ado:

Weekly Picks: Week 1
* indicates "Game of the Week"


Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Steelers 17 - Dolphins 10
ANALYSIS: Game already played etc etc. I actually would have gotten this wrong. Mostly because of sentimental value, I'm from minnesota, we've traded away Daunte Culppeper and Randy Moss in the last two years and I fucking hate the vikings for it.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
PICK: Eagles 14 - Texans 3
ANALYSIS:I expect this to be one of the most boring games played on sunday. Houston continues to put a quarterback with a good skill set in a situation to fail, Wally Lundi will be unimpressive, and I fully expect the eagles line to pick up 4+ sacks, on an Oline thats led the league in sacks allowed for 3 seasons and has yet to be significantly improved. At the same time, I think the Phily offence will be exposed by a weak performance against the Houston Defence, look for the #1 overall pick to be an absolute stud, because he is.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I hate stuff like this for one reason, chances are if you have McNabb he's your best quarterback by quite a bit, I don't think he's going to have a very good game in this one, but chances are he's your best bet. I would if I could suggest steering clear all players in this game, it will be low scoring, but both Phily touchdowns will come from the hands of McNabb

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Browns 17 - Saints 24
ANALYSIS: You know I had New Orleans by quite a margin, until I read what you posted, I started to waver but then I rembered a couple key things. Cleveland does have a lot of passing options now, however the Saints still have Mckenzie, so you can take Edwards out of the equasion. I think between that and a rookie starter, I look for a score from the New Orleans defence. New Orleans will be impressive on offence as well, I think a little less Bush then people are expecting, but 150 or so yards out of McCalister
FANTASY OUTLOOK:I still think Cleveland will put up some decent offence, but I would not expect anything out of Edwards. Brees will be stable enough to start, but the only stud coming out of this game will be Deuce.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
PICK: Patriots 20 - Bills 10
ANALYSIS: I like this pick, I'm not even going to change it. BUt I'll add some things. Peerless Price has been beyon horrible as a number one, so seeing him back to a number two might help him out, but Moulds was also more of a possesion/middle guy, If anything I see Price as a decoy to boost Evans's stats. I expect the Patriots to come out of the gate conservativly, look for Dillion to post quite a few yards, as well as 50 or so from maroney(roumor is he will play).
FANTASY OUTLOOK:Studs in this game will be Dillion, and the New England D. Brady will be strong but not game breaking. I'd start Lee Evans for sure, probly get a solid but not great game from Magahee as well

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
[size=7]PICK: Seahawks 28 - Lions 7
ANALYSIS: I like what you wrote, but I increased the score a bit, Detroit is going to continue to be pretty bad for a couple more years here. Burleson is a better reciver than a lot of people know, he'd be #1 if he was still on the vikings, and thats not just because of the debackle with Koren Robinson. Hasselbeck + good hands for once, I'm saying they will hook up twice, with two scores from Alexander on the side.
FANTASY OUTLOOK:ALexander and Burleson will be studs, I'd probly start hasselbeck also(chances are if you have him, this is a good matchup in comparison to your backup) I'd steer clear of all Lions, if you can afford to bench him, don't even start WIlliams.[size]

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Ravens 10 - Buccaneers 3
ANALYSIS: I can't really add to this, except I can't forseeably tell why you would have the Ravens in any better of a situation offencivly. THey have the potential to be much better, but we have not seen McNair in regular season action with the ravens yet. And we can only hope that Lewis returns to form. I'm go with your pick but I'm reducing your score, I just don't have any reason to feel strongly about the baltimore offence.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I agree with you on heap. I would not start anyone from this game, but I wil say, Brian Kelly is in actuallity pretty bad, I don't think he's worth starting but I expect the touchdown to come from Clayton, burning Kelly

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Titans 20 - Jets 27
ANALYSIS: I disagree, part of what I love about the NFL is I can watch any two teams play, desipte if I like them, if the game is entertaining, and this will be a shootout, these defences are horrid.
FANTASY OUTLOOK:The following players will see enough of the ball to start, Coles, Barlow, Brown and Bennet, VOlek is a tough call, chances are you have a much better starter than him, but if his matchup is bad don't overlook this game, the Jets may as well line up a high school secondary.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs *
PICK: Bengals 27 - Chiefs 24
ANALYSIS: When I saw your marker for game of the week, I was expecting to change it, but, as it turns out, it’s hard to look away from this game. I really don’t see a lot of defence being played in this, Kansas City has no hope of stopping the Cincinati attack, so it boils down to, how good is the Kansas City offence now?I don’t have much else to add to what you wrote, it’s funny when you see a coach like Al Saunders leave, and Herm Edwards come you think “well the offence will be toned down because herm is a more conservative coach” but the explosive Kansas City offence revolved around “concervative” style, running a lot, play action, Swing Passes, will it be more of the same?
FANTASY OUTLOOK: two words: Start everyone, this pretty much goes for either of these offences agains any team, except t.j. who’s your moma(fixed) who I guess is hurt, I didn’t know that.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Panthers 21 - Falcons 3
ANALYSIS: I really don’t see Atlanta scoring on the Panthers this much, I’m keeping your pick but I’m lowering Atlanta’s score quite a bit. The Atlanta defence is very strong, but will eventually break open in the second half due to Carolina having the ball for over double the time of possession. The most notable thing to come out of this game will be Shaub mopping up after Vick turns it over 4 times.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Obviously, Steve Smith if he plays, I’d probly throw Jake in there also, I’d be weary of Keyshawn though, he’s more of a presence than a playmaker in his old age. On the Atlanta side I’d start Warrick Dunn, assuming he’s the best second back you have, otherwise I would think twice. Start either defence in this game, although it’s going to be tight on the yardage bonus for Atlanta.

Denver Broncos @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: Broncos 27 - Rams 35
ANALYSIS: Two words Shoot out. Expect Jackson to expose a line without Pryce, expect Bulger to go deep earily and often, I would not be surprised if you don’t see a punt by either team until late in the second quarter. I’m weary of the Broncos offence, I like Walker and Plummer but that’s really it. Despite that that’s enough to score on this sordid Ram defence, expect Mike Bell to fool a lot of fantasy owners with his week one performance.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Jackson, Bulger and Holt will all be studs for St.Louis, Curtis will have a solid game, but it’s possible you will have a better option. Expect both Jackson and Mike Bell to have some of the biggest games by any running backs this week, and if you own Mike Bell, look to trade him immediately following this big performance, it will be an aberration.

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Jaguars 14 - Cowboys 7
ANALYSIS: I think everyone is overplaying the owens thing. This Dallas team is a team with a good defence and a mediocre offence, period. Jacksonville’s Defencive line is way to good for Bledsoe to find the absolute pristine water that his Pocket seems to need for him to be effective, Look for Julius Jones to have a lot of carries after an earily interception by Bledsoe. Jacksonville will score eventually, more than likely on a short drive created by their defence.
FANTASY OUTLOOK:I would probly go with Julius Jones, and then Owens because if you have Owens, he’s got to be that much better than your third, or your league is full of mental patents.On the Jacksonville side of the ball, you can start Leftwitch if you want, but it will be pretty mediocre, stay away from Jacksonville backs until after Taylor is out for the season.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
PICK: Cardinals 31 - 49ers 7
ANALYSIS: I can’t add to this. I’m not even changing your score.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start any Cardinal. Don't start any 49er. Simple.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Bears 14 - Packers 0
ANALYSIS: This game is a lot more lopsided than it looks on paper. I know your tempted to go, well Chicago has a good defence, but their offence is sooo bad. Well Green Bay is that bad offencivly and Defencivly. Low Scoring, but bend but don’t break defence by Green Bay leads to some serious clock hoarding by both Jones and Benson.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Jones, Chicago Def. You could start Green if you don’t have other options, but if you have Grossman on your Roster just do yourself a favor and cut him, then your wrists in that order.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
PICK: Colts 13 - Giants 21
ANALYSIS: while I don’t expect Indy to be a lot worse this year, I expect the Giants to be that much better. Eli took a huge step from year one to year 2, I forsee the same this year. I don’t care what they try to tell you in interviews, this is a big game, Peyton Manning’s(only?) weakness. Look for Manning to struggle in the red zone ending two promising drives with 3 points. On the other side of the ball, Eli will be good enough to not lose the game, as the Giants run game dominates.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: YES I’m going to say it, if you can afford to do it, don’t start anybody but Tiki Barber in this game. But chances are you’d be utterly retarted to Bench either manning or Harrison considering what your next option would be.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Vikings 10 - Redskins 17
ANALYSIS: I’m pretty Bias when it comes to the Vikings, I hate them, if they lose every game this year, I would be extatic. It’s pretty hard to see players like Moss and Culpepper get traded away consecutive years, and have them play it off like a smart choice. Tip for owners out there When a guy scores a touchdown I don’t think WOW I’m pissed he scored he has shitty character, If a grown man wants to have sex on a boat, have at it I say, have at it. I like what the Viking did with the line this year, and I think they might have one of the best Dlines in the national football league, but where they fail is at offencive skill positions and linebackers. Look for the redskins to have a good enough running game to control the game, they will proby score on a screen pass, because the Vikings can’t defend them for shit. Expect the Vikings touchdown to be defencive or via field postion on a turnover.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: I don’t think I would start a Redskins back, because of the split carries, Chris Cooly should be a stud due to the lack of talent at linebacker for the Vikings. I’d start Taylor simply because of the number of carries he’s going to get.

San Diego Charges @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Chargers 35 - Raiders 21
ANALYSIS: I’m a little tired of doing this, and I don’t really disagree with what you said so I’m going to leave it.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Start Tomlinson and Gates. Hell start Rivers if your league dosen’t penalize for INTs. For the Raiders start Moss for pretty much the same reasons you put.

I’m just deleting the player part, cause this has taken too long as it is. Although I’d add Bulger to the quarterbacks, I think Linehan in Saint Louis makes it a top flight offence. I’d remove McNabb, the east is too good this year, the eagles likely will have the worst record since 1999. And I simply cannot agree with Williamson(though I’m Bias) he’s fucking horrible, but then seeing as we got him in the Moss trade I’m somewhat bitter.

[Tyr]

Interesting picks on the Rams and Giants games -- for my sake, I hope the Colts offense doesn't get more than 13 points, but how are the Giants going to stop them? They have a decent run defense, but pass defense? And Eli's going up against a monster defensive line, I don't see him outperforming Peyton at all.

I can easily see the Vikings-Redskins game going either way, mainly because although the Vikings have a strong D-Line, their LBs are very weak, and I can see Ladell Betts, Mike Sellers, and Chris Cooley getting dinky passes here and there.

[Squirrels]

Top Players
Offense
Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner ARI<----hasn't done anything since the Rams season they won the superbowl
2. Peyton Manning IND<--- best QB in NFL
3. Donovan McNabb PHI<--- great QB but no recievers
4. Carson Palmer CIN<--- best Reader of defense
5. Tom Brady NE <--- most clutch QB in the game right now

1. Peyton Manning IND
2. Carson Palmer CIN
3. Tom Brady NE
4. Jake Delhomme CAR
5. Eli Manning NYG

[SilverBreeze]

God I hope Brady's shoulder doesn't give out on me today, with Ben as my backup QB and out, I'll be screwed if he can't play today.

[edgarfigaro]

God I hope Brady's shoulder doesn't give out on me today, with Ben as my backup QB and out, I'll be screwed if he can't play today.

I can only hope...but he'll play, that toothy bastard.

[Squirrels]

Who do you all think is going to win IND vs NYG?

[Tyche]

I think the giants. Also thinking tampa over baltimore. I don't think tampa is getting kudos they deserve.

[Andarvi]

Colts got the Giants today.

and lol at warner, come on.

[Boyiee]

Kurt is extremely accurate he just picks the wrong players and most of the time doesnt have people to go to. I dunno if i'd say hes top 5... but he isnt bad.

Colts will probably win. The 2 biggest things the giants have offensively are tiki and shockey and those are the 2 positions that the colts are able to completely shutdown.

Brady will play hurt or not, he'll play. I'm gonna miss Adam V. i just hope that Gostkowski can at least half fill his shoes. Adam put so many points on the board for the pats over tha passed few seasons, usually the first points of the game, gonna miss him. Btw its really strange to see people that like the patriots even when they dont make/win the superbowl - i thought i was the only one.

[Plow]

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers -- I'd have picked miami ><

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans -- Gotta go with the texans, sadly enough. Philly isn't what it used to be. Corners > all.


New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns-- Battle for next year's reggie bush anyone? lol Saints win cuz Deuce will make a statement on the best opponent he could possibly hope for to make it against.


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -- Depends on Dillon and I'm really not sure about him this year. I'm gonna give NE like a 13-10 win.


Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions -- IMO the seahawks are the most overrated team in the league. I'd say kinda the same thing about the lions here as I did about Deuce: Beating the Seahawks would be a great statement on the future of the franchise, and the Seahawks are probably the weakest team you can say that about. I think the Lions will do it.


Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Ed Reed is a freak. So is Cadillac, but Tampa's o-line is way weak right now. But Baltimore's offense couldn't score a touchdown on Tampa's 2nd team d. Bucs take it by a big margin(for playing the ravens)


New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans -- Ok so maybe 2 battles for next year's reggie. But, they'll put Vince in 4th quarter and he'll carry the titans to a win.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs -- Who the hell knows with these 2. I'll say bengals 45-41 oh and Whosyerdaddy is diabled fyi ; ;


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers -- Seeing how I had to start lelie (read bengals game), I'm gonna pray that since smith(god I took it in the ass in another league cuz of that) is out too, Lelie, vick, and dunn get their thing on and I dominate all 3 of my leages lol. Falcons 24-17



Denver Broncos @ St. Louis Rams -- Broncos for sure, but relatively high scoring.


Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars -- I'll pick the coyboys every week no matter who they play. Terrance Newman is my boy. Just FYI.


San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals -- Agree cardinals, but it'll be closer than you think. While the niners lost a hell of a lot las year, 4 or 5 losses were by 3 poitns or less.


Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants -- This is going to be a drubbing, just like every other game the colts play until they hit 13-0 and manning cracks under the pressure. (do I even have to say again?)


Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins -- I'll pick the redskins every week in which they don't play the coyboys. Portis is ... God.



San Diego Charges @ Oakland Raiders -- lol. that's all.

[Eaglestrike]

Skins gonna win it all this year! Just because they lost every preseason game means nothing at all!

[Tyche]

Skins gonna win it all this year! Just because they lost every preseason game means nothing at all!

Colts lost all their pre-season games last year, then won what, 14 strait?

[Eaglestrike]

Skins gonna win it all this year! Just because they lost every preseason game means nothing at all!

Colts lost all their pre-season games last year, then won what, 14 strait?

I guess I wasn't being sarcastic then >.>! Go skins!

I'm more a patriots fan, but I'm like 45min from FedEx field so I'm required to be a fan, right?

[Vade]

woo, go texans!

[Boyiee]

Anyone else watch Vince Young throw a pick in his first drive in the NFL? lol