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  1. #1
    Fake Numbers
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    Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Had an argument in LS today about the chance of HQ popping after D3.

    How does it work? I thought that there was an increase in % each day until day 10 cap 100% pop.

    Does anyone know?

  2. #2
    This isnt going so well guys.
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    I'm 100% sure it can go past day 10, but its all just random.

  3. #3
    23 years old
    Rating: total douchebag

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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    We've gone up to day 11 nidhogg, day 12 turtle.

  4. #4
    Relic Weapons
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    if there is a definite limit to how many days can pass until HQ, then yes every day would = higher chance, that would be common sense. But yea, as others have said, theres no 100% pop day.

  5. #5
    Yoshi P
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    I'd say it goes something like:

    Day 2: 5%
    Day 3: 15%
    Day 4: 25%
    Day 5: 50%

    Obviously increasing farther after Day 5.

    I've seen day 12 (as Ryko said), so it can definitely go past 10, albeit unlikely. I'd imagine day 7+ is 90% HQ chance.

  6. #6
    Fake Numbers
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    The argument against me was every day past day 3 are 50% chance of HQ. The cap being 10-12 days which is 100% pop.

  7. #7
    Bagel
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    There is never 100% chance for HQ. Chance just increases daily because it didn't pop the day before.

  8. #8
    This isnt going so well guys.
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Theres been like day 16 KB's on Bahamut before but 50% after day 3 sounds wrong, very wrong, unless Bahamut is the worst server ever.

  9. #9
    Campaign
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    I've seen a day 13 Nidhogg, and another Niddy back after maint. Back then some considered that to be a day#1 pop, but I think nowadays the "after maint" status is considered to be day 3/4.
    It was very strange because we had just killed Nidd like 10 mins before maint started, and right after maint, in 15 mins I'd say, another Niddy popped lol

  10. #10
    Chram
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    Xerlic Jilrak
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Each day is an independent chance for the HQ to pop. It doesn't matter if it's day 4 or day 16. The mob has the same probability to pop on any given day. If you roll a 6 sided die 99 times and you get a 1 each time, the next roll will still have a 1/6 chance of getting a 1. It doesn't matter what happened each previous roll.

  11. #11
    Relic Weapons
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Xerlic
    Each day is an independent chance for the HQ to pop. It doesn't matter if it's day 4 or day 16. The mob has the same probability to pop on any given day. If you roll a 6 sided die 99 times and you get a 1 each time, the next roll will still have a 1/6 chance of getting a 1. It doesn't matter what happened each previous roll.

    And also - it's extremly unlikely to roll 1 ninetynine times in a row.
    If pop chance is 50% every day, it is still unlikely that you will hit no pop for 12 days, since statistically it would roughly pop every second day.

  12. #12
    souleman
    Guest

    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    The joy of stats... I hate them.

    If you have a ball under 3 cups, and you get to chose 1 cup, what are the chances you got the correct one? 33% (1 in 3). So now I show you one of the empty cups (not the one you chose). Now what are your chances that you got the right one? Well, there are only 2 cups left, so you would think 50%, but the correct answer is still 33%, because no matter what you chose first (right or wrong), I can always show you an empty cup.

    It's the same deal here. If there is a 5 day window, and it doesn't pop on day 1 or 2, that doesn't increase the % chance for day 3. Each day still has a 20% chance. Even if you get to day 5, where it HAS to pop, it was originally still only a 20% chance of it being that day.

    This is especially true with mobs like this, where there is no ending window. Every day has the same % chance of poping it, and the likelyhood of it going past day 10 is very small, but you can see the proof in the fact that they do go past day 10 on occassion.

  13. #13

    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by souleman
    If you have a ball under 3 cups, and you get to chose 1 cup, what are the chances you got the correct one? 33% (1 in 3). So now I show you one of the empty cups (not the one you chose). Now what are your chances that you got the right one? Well, there are only 2 cups left, so you would think 50%, but the correct answer is still 33%, because no matter what you chose first (right or wrong), I can always show you an empty cup.
    Just an aside, because I find it interesting. This is kind of like that one gameshow (you pick door 1, 2 or 3. One door has a nice prize, the other two have nothing good. No matter which door you choose, they'll show you one of the bad doors. Then you get to choose to swap or not.) Actually, the odds are better to choose to swap. Since, at the start, you have a 33% chance of getting it right with 3 spots, but you have a 66% chance of getting it wrong. Meaning if you chose a spot where the ball wasn't, then the person has no choice but to show you the only remaining spot that doesn't have the ball. Since you were trying to get the wrong spot and had a 66% chance of being right (yeah, it's somewhat backward logic), then you just need to swap your answer once the other bad spot was shown. Of course, there's a 33% chance that you could have selected the correct spot in the beginning and get it wrong by swapping... but, hey, that's probability for ya. >.>

  14. #14
    Fake Numbers
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    So in the end I was wrong, and the person arguing with me was right in a way. Each day has an independant % chance of popping after day 3 correct? Day 4 and day 7 are the exact same chance at HQ.

  15. #15
    Relic Weapons
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Probably But noone can say for sure without gathering a lot of data and making statistics out of it.

  16. #16
    Salvage Bans
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    I've always understood it to be no day is 100% and every day after 3 is possible king.

    That being said, some people claim that certain kings like to pop on certain days, For instance one person said KB likes 4 and 7.
    However, I have never seen any proof to this as I am usually oblivious to what day it is.

    Until someone does some research and records like a years worth of data, the world will never know.
    (Also would be interesting to note if any one window seems to have more pops D: seems like 7 has the most >.>)

  17. #17
    D. Ring
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Edrick
    Quote Originally Posted by souleman
    If you have a ball under 3 cups, and you get to chose 1 cup, what are the chances you got the correct one? 33% (1 in 3). So now I show you one of the empty cups (not the one you chose). Now what are your chances that you got the right one? Well, there are only 2 cups left, so you would think 50%, but the correct answer is still 33%, because no matter what you chose first (right or wrong), I can always show you an empty cup.
    Just an aside, because I find it interesting. This is kind of like that one gameshow (you pick door 1, 2 or 3. One door has a nice prize, the other two have nothing good. No matter which door you choose, they'll show you one of the bad doors. Then you get to choose to swap or not.) Actually, the odds are better to choose to swap. Since, at the start, you have a 33% chance of getting it right with 3 spots, but you have a 66% chance of getting it wrong. Meaning if you chose a spot where the ball wasn't, then the person has no choice but to show you the only remaining spot that doesn't have the ball. Since you were trying to get the wrong spot and had a 66% chance of being right (yeah, it's somewhat backward logic), then you just need to swap your answer once the other bad spot was shown. Of course, there's a 33% chance that you could have selected the correct spot in the beginning and get it wrong by swapping... but, hey, that's probability for ya. >.>
    Monty Hall?

  18. #18
    Fake Numbers
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    One pattern that I have found is that kings like to pop in pairs. If aspid pops then either nid or KB will pop on the same day. This is of course if all the kings are around the same days..

  19. #19
    Sea Torques
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    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    This thread reminded me of how much I fucking hated Stats.

  20. #20

    Re: Chance of HQ king after day 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Piper
    One pattern that I have found is that kings like to pop in pairs. If aspid pops then either nid or KB will pop on the same day. This is of course if all the kings are around the same days..
    It certainly isn't difinitive but we normally get 2/3 pop days too. Mostly Aspid and KB. Fafhogg does his own thing and likes to make a grand entrance.

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