Any new Silver Seas theories?

[Croaker]

My estimate is that 35 drops in Silver Seas are about 5%. Assuming this is true, on average you should get one 35 drop for every 20 kills. Also 1 in every 20 groups will get lucky with a 1/1 and there will also be groups that go 0/60+ on a particular drop.

Over time it should all average out, but strangely this does not seem to be the case. After more than 100 runs in this zone, the group I go with has 12 usukane 35 heads and 0 Skadi 35 gloves. I hear that another group on my server has 0 usukane 35 heads and 8 Skadi 35 gloves.

Do both of these groups simply exist out on the extreme edges of the bell curve or is there something else going on (moon phase, enter time, group size, path, kill order, cell usage, ability usuage, people/items unlocked) in Silver Seas that is influencing these results?

[Starlink]

After about 30 runs, today's one went well and we dropped our first 35 piece. But in the last 3 runs we killed 15-20 gears and we didn't drop any card. Did they changed the mobs that drop card?I need the cards for poroggos farm ;_;

http://www.excaliburls.it/mkportal/m...lbum/a_632.jpg

it was like a d ring :D

[chapstick]

We went like 7+ runs without any cards, then we got several in the same run. When they rain, they pour I guess.

[Veli]

I hate that zone.. Anytime we kill GG we get Freyas gloves but all the other nms dont drop. Powderkeg drop rate should be higher because you have to clear the whole room for nm to pop.

[Therin]

Personally I'm 1/1 on Skadi 35 hands, and 1/3 on Deimos's Cuisses.

[Lyriane]

Drops thread is that way.

Theories? Theories are all well and good, but there's nothing testable here. The number of runs you would have to record in order to determine if anything was having an effect... and then you still never know if it's not just poorly randomized. I think it's safe to say that if there are any factors, it's not worth worrying about, just kill the mobs and give it your best go, have your superstitions and in-jokes, and we'll never ever know.

Here's what I extracted from about 9 months worth of my group's data. The first ratio is 35s to runs. The second is basically the number of item chances accounting for the fact that some NMs drop multiple pieces (so Arp chariot counts as 3 chances), and the last bit, the average drop rate is making the (admittedly gross) assumption that each NM in a zone has the same drop rate.

Arrapago: 1:2 (off 9 potential drop chances) ~1/18 average drop rate
Bhaflau: 1:3.66 (off ~2 potential drop chances*) ~1/7 average drop rate
Silver Seas: 1:3.8 (off 3-4 potential drop chances) ~1/15 average drop rate
Zhayolm: 1:1.4** (off 6 potential drop chances) ~1/8 average drop rate

*averaging about 1 NM with 2 drops = 2 drop chances per run
**after subtracting 7 runs which took place before 5/6 pop conditions were known.

Results:
- Bhaflau and Silver Seas have about half the drops-per-run as Arp and Zhay
- Arp and Silver Seas NMs have about half the drops-per-kill as Bhaf and Zhay
- In general, Zhayolm gets the best of both worlds and SS gets the worst.

[TB]

Droprule for SR is simple: Noob LS and shout groups have 25-50% droprate.

[Donjarfi]

noob LS or new ls? a lot of people in my group are experienced salvage goers, but our 2 endgame LSs just merged, so new groups formed for times. We just went 1/1 on powderkeg last night (yhelothar Macha's Slops for teh galka BLM).

[Rafike]

Personally I'm 1/1 on Skadi 35 hands, and 1/3 on Deimos's Cuisses.

1/1 on both.

[Zidiane]

Well, heres something else which might control the drop rates.

Entrance time (Even or odd min)
Opening each door on the set time or not.

There is one our of the 4 zones which has 1 nm which is set like this, could it be the same for other area's? Like every ss of drop is on a diff day, moon phase etc, but the one thing we never record is the timing of each time we open the doors for clearance to the next level.

Wacky idea yeah but could work.

[Ayn]

General rule of thumb regarding Salvage:

The lower the overall intellect of your group is, the higher your drop rate generally is.

[Rafike]

General rule of thumb regarding Salvage:

The lower the overall intellect of your group is, the higher your drop rate generally is.

This man speaks the truth.

[Ferien]

1/3 on Deimos's Cuisses.

1/1 on both.

[img]Deimos's%20Cuisses%20drop[/img]

Please, kindly, die in a fire.

[Kaylia]

are about 5%

I stopped reading there to express my disagreement.

We kill 4-5 nm every runs (used to be 3-4) and went around 3/80 drops/run. That's close to 1%. I'm sure the average is better, but I seriously doubt it's anywhere near 5%. Maybe 2.5%

[Uzor]

Our average in Silversea is 7,2% per NM. Not sure exactly how many runs as I only count NM kills and not times gone to Silver Sea, but I'm guessing roughly 65 runs, 16 drops total. So drop/run% is roughly 1/4 for us, I guess.

Personally I don't think there's any "trick" to get things to drop. Its all luck. Even though the odds of /randoming 0 3 times in a row is low, it can still happen. High and low extremes will happen in Salvage, too, but eventually it'll even out.

[Hyan]

roughly 5% for my group

[Scorp]

This thread will pretty much come down to "Drop rates are bad, but hey there is always a chance it will drop".

We are at 4 drops in 41 runs killing at least 3 nm's.

[Lyramion]

When we started silversea we got 2 Ares legs at the start - noone cared for because we needes Usu and Morrigan. After that we had months of just nothing while the morale of the group went down.


I was telling everyone to stop nagging about the droprates and

A) keep doing it since it is unavoidable that something WILL drop.

B) stop going salvage if they fed up


Moaning and nagging every dam time something NOT drops like the world is ending and SE was just out to make YOU feel bad really creates a bad climate and makes salvage not fun.


In the End we got the Morrigans Slops needed plus 2 Usu Heads and Bodies. Silversea just has less NM chances (4) to put out if you go like Hammer > Powder > 3Gear > Turtle. Whereas Zhay gives you 6 (2 frogs @ 3 drops @ 5% each) and Arp, too (4 QQTH 1.25%, 2 QQA 2.5%, Flayer/Bhoot @ 5% and Chariot @ 3 drops @ 5% each).

[Croaker]

are about 5%

I stopped reading there to express my disagreement.

Then you missed the point I was trying to make.

Which is that a lot of groups I have talked to are getting very different drop patterns. This isn't just after a few runs either. After a few hundred kills we should at least start to see things averaging out..... unless there are some other factors involved.

[Kaylia]

are about 5%

I stopped reading there to express my disagreement.

Then you missed the point I was trying to make.

Which is that a lot of groups I have talked to are getting very different drop patterns. This isn't just after a few runs either. After a few hundred kills we should at least start to see things averaging out..... unless there are some other factors involved.

I read your post, I just wanted to complain about our drop rate.


I don't think statistic alone can explain SSR drop rate, mad bomber ratio, and many others thing in Salvages. Fluke seem to be way too common amongst the same group. Doesnt mean we have any control over the other element tho, if it's not just a poor random number generator