Another week of some fairly unspectacular games. We get a few good ones, such as the Giants going to the Superdome, Ravens visiting Minnesota, and Monday night may prove to be a critical game for the Chargers.
Houston at Cincinnati (-5) - Cinci is favored against a Houston team that has an ability to put up a lot of points, but at the same time, give up a bunch. I hate using cliches, but it almost feels like a trap game for cinci coming off such an emotional week of highs and lows. I like Caron to have a big game here but I like Houston to keep it close. Cinci wins, Houston +5.
Detroit at Green Bay (-13.5) - Detroit has 14 sacks on the season, but we can expect that number to get up to about 18 after this week. Detroit can actually get to the QB with their front line, but Rogers has shown an ability to still throw up massive numbers despite the line handicap. 13.5 is a big number for a detroit team that has shown it's capable of scoring some points. I like the packs to win, Detroit +13.5
Baltimore at Minnesota (-3) - It seems that Baltimore has decided to open up the playbook a bit for Flacco and he's played well. Jared Allen is a god damned beast though. That front line of Minnesota is tremendous. I like Minnesota to almost shut down the Baltimore offense and win, and win big. Minnesota to cover.
NY Giants at New Orleans (-3) - And to continue the streak of hometown favorites, we arrive in the superdome. Drew Brees has hit a bit of a skid after putting up MVP numbers the first couple of games. When Philly blitzed him, he completed 100% of his passes. Not so much with the Jets. He faces another good defense in New York. I like Brees to get things rolling again for New Orleans, New Orleans wins and covers.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14) - In breaking news, the Cleveland Browns are in talks with the Miami Dolphins in an attempt to bring Ronnie Brown to Cleveland to QB the Browns. Seriously, how much could it hurt? Works for Miami! Pitt has to finally break out against a weak weak browns team at home. 14 is a huge number for a Pitt team that hasn't been able to close, but I feel they can handle the handicap. Pitt to cover.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3.5) - Hurray, Carolina is finally going to get rolling with TWO strait wins. Delhomme will throw for 300 yards, Fox will get a 6 year extension, and all shall be right in the world. Carolina topple Tampa and covers.
Kansas City at Washington (-6.5) - Well, shouldn't this be just a vomit inducing shitfest of a game. Seems like a lot of Washington games recently have been this way. Washington finally has a big game and beats the breaks off of the Chiefs. Washington to cover.
St. Louis at Jacksonville (-9.5) - Jacksonville has been one of the most bi-polar teams this season. One week they're putting up 30 on Houston, and the next they're getting shut out by Seattle. I really don't know what I'm getting with this team. I do know what I'm getting with St. Louis however, and it ain't pretty. Jacksonville to win, St. Louis +9.5.
Arizona at Seattle (-3) - This could actually be a damn good game to watch if both teams start throwing the ball all over the place. Matt Hasselbeck looked sharp as a tack in his return last week. I like that to continue into this week as Seattle pulls another victory, and a repeat of last year slips further and further away from Arizona.
Philadelphia at Oakland (+14) - Did anyone hear what Peirce of the Giants said about Oakland last week. "It felt like a scrimmage, I think they just gave up". That's god damned harsh for any NFL team. Oakland isn't going to win this game, and I don't even think they'll get there with 14 points tacked on. Key player icould be Maclin for a 2nd strait game. Nnamdi will likely be al over DeSean's jock, so I wouldn't expect much from him. Philly wins and covers. Tom Cable has too much shit on his plate.
Tennessee at New England (-9.5) - Belichick called out him some Tom Brady, saying "The offense has to improve". And he's right. Last week Brady missed a couple of crucial throws. He had a wide open Randy Moss for a TD that fantasy owners have been begging for, and missed Welker on a quick slant that would have likely went the distance as there was noone outside of the secondary, Tennessee has allowed a metric fuckton of passing yards, and Brady needs to step it up. New England wins huge, Brady goes off, Pats cover.
Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5) - Fatass Ryan is going to have his team ready to ingest a weak Buffalo team to get morale up. Edwards is going to prove to be a key asset in that offense, and despite what Miami was able to do, this is still a very very good defense. Jets are going to win this game, but I think Buffalo keeps it close after and embarrassing week 5.
Chicago at Atlanta (-3) - Chicago seems to be getting better and better by the week. Atlanta hasn't looked too damn shabby thus far either. This game means a lot to both teams, as both are very good teams that aren't leading their division. Every win is important here, and they need them to keep up with Minnesota and New Orleans. No real game analysis here, because I honestly don't know how the game is going to go. The bears have looked fantastic. My head tells me Atlanta, my gut tells me Chicago. I'll take Chicago for the upset.
Denver at San Diego (-4) - It's hard in week 5 to say a game is an almost "must-win", especially after the debacle between the two teams late last season. San Diego cannot afford to lose another game on Denver, and especially not at home. The San Diego defense has given up a lot, and they just cut one of their safeties. Kyle Orton, Messiah, has been shredding defense and looked really really efficient. Reluctantly, I think that San Diego wins this game on a last second field goal. Chargers win, Denver +4.
Relevant Stats:
Last week:
Against the spread: 6-8
Strait up: 10-4
On the year:
Against the spread: 34-41-1
Strait up: 53-23