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  1. #1001
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    The burden of proof is on you because I'm not trying to prove anything. All I'm saying is recognize it's a common enough belief to not call it terrible that someone goes by it when it's convenient to. Is that really so hard to ask?

    And I point back to the magic accuracy fiasco as a prime example of this community not being as you bolded, but sometimes just decides something is how it is and doesn't need testing. And in that case this community was proven entirely wrong.

  2. #1002
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    The burden of proof is on you because I'm not trying to prove anything. All I'm saying is recognize it's a common enough belief to not call it terrible that someone goes by it when it's convenient to. Is that really so hard to ask?

    And I point back to the magic accuracy fiasco as a prime example of this community not being as you bolded, but sometimes just decides something is how it is and doesn't need testing. And in that case this community was proven entirely wrong.
    Most people believed in a flat Earth and geocentric universe for centuries. Just because a belief is common, it does not mean that it is correct.

  3. #1003
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    That's really stretching it for a comparison but sure, I'll concede that point. Mainly because agreeing with that point doesn't make what I'm saying any less valid.

    Edit: Honestly the simplest comparison I can make on this is a religious one. On this topic let's say I'm the laziest possible agnostic ever, and when asked "is there a god?" I say "meh, could be, so for things that take half a second to do I try to be a good person" and this forum's reaction is to laugh and say I'm one of "these terrible people" because I've never gone out and tried to prove there's a god.

  4. #1004
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    The parallels between this debate and religion vs. atheism are way too striking to go un-commented upon.

  5. #1005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    That's really stretching it for a comparison but sure, I'll concede that point. Mainly because agreeing with that point doesn't make what I'm saying any less valid.

    Edit: Honestly the simplest comparison I can make on this is a religious one. On this topic let's say I'm the laziest possible agnostic ever, and when asked "is there a god?" I say "meh, could be, so for things that take half a second to do I try to be a good person" and this forum's reaction is to laugh and say I'm one of "these terrible people" because I've never gone out and tried to prove there's a god.
    The thing is that proving the existence of directional crafting is like proving the existence of god. People have been trying for years but no one has come up with anything definitive. Hell, even if someone did nothing but craft 24 hours a day, seven days a week for a year, they probably wouldn't get enough data points to be able to say for certain how anything works because the numbers required are so astronomically high and it would be hard to determine confounding factors.

    Plus there was that Dev interview a few years back where someone asked them about directional crafting and the response was long the lines of "sure, face whatever direction you believe." Does anyone have a link to that?

  6. #1006
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    Let's put it this way.. i have NEVER waited for any particular day/time/moon phase, faced any particular direction (normally the ah window or the support npc), or done anything that people believe helps/hurts. At one point between 2005 and 2007, i actually tracked everything.. direction, time, moon phases, vanadiel day... for tens of thousands of synths. After all was said and done, there was only two discernible patterns: Breaks occurred more often in bunches and HQs often occurred in bunches. Those bunches would occur within the same 24 hour period starting at JP midnight and ending at the same time the next rl day. Those days were never predictable or relevant to the same occurrence on any day prior.

    Likewise, If you are attempting to create any set of data to support or refute any claim, then you must do the same amount of testing for all variables. Considering any single point in time in game is only repeated every 7 RL days, collecting just a single set of relevant data for any single point would take no less than 2 months. If you wish to do the same test for each crystal/day/time/moon phase/direction you're looking to be testing for 1.5 years. If you wish to do the testing by all means, do so. I can save you a few years and tell you that you will come to the same conclusion that is widely accepted: any variables other than the outcome of a random number generator do not have any effect on crafting. Obviously, believing in crafting superstitions doesn't hurt. Just don't incorrectly associate good luck with it.

    As for my luck at making HQs, I'll let the thread title speak for itself.

  7. #1007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zouri View Post
    At one point between 2005 and 2007, i actually tracked everything.. direction, time, moon phases, vanadiel day... for tens of thousands of synths. After all was said and done, there was only two discernible patterns: Breaks occurred more often in bunches and HQs often occurred in bunches. Those bunches would occur within the same 24 hour period starting at JP midnight and ending at the same time the next rl day. Those days were never predictable or relevant to the same occurrence on any day prior.
    This is pretty much exactly what I was looking for, good to know. And even without it yeah I wouldn't want to test it myself because I wouldn't wait for a particular day/phase either. I've been saying over and over I have the laziest belief that "something that takes half a second to do and has at least some people following it is more likely to help than hurt" is the extent of my "religious belief" in the whole thing, despite some people responding like I was Tom Cruise.

  8. #1008
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    I just T0ed another pair of Hexed Gages -1 while facing south on Waning Crescent 77% Iceday in whitegate by the alchemy guild about five yalms from the synthesis NPC right after a JP shout. GL!

  9. #1009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    This is pretty much exactly what I was looking for, good to know. And even without it yeah I wouldn't want to test it myself because I wouldn't wait for a particular day/phase either. I've been saying over and over I have the laziest belief that "something that takes half a second to do and has at least some people following it is more likely to help than hurt" is the extent of my "religious belief" in the whole thing, despite some people responding like I was Tom Cruise.
    Do you cast barthundra on yourself as well because that would only take a second? Imagine the HQ rate increase it would cause on earth crystals, or wait, would that decrease HQ rate because thunder is grounded by the earth. Fuckkk, I don't know, I better go check a wiki page.

    How is facing a certain direction more likely to help than hurt?? For all you or I know, it is actually hurting more than it helps! "Having at least some people following" it proves nothing, other than people love to follow, hope, and dream.

  10. #1010
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    Because like I said, there's 2 possibilities: it either influences it or it doesn't. If it doesn't, it doesn't hurt, and if it does, the people who "figured out" the patterns used at least some form of reasoning which means it's at least slightly more likely to be right than wrong.

    But I'll just go with Zouri's 2 years worth of tracking everything and say cool, it doesn't matter.

    And I'd heard the barspell thing before and that's just bunk from a design perspective, SE wouldn't give an advantage like that only to certain jobs.

  11. #1011
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    Don't forget to equip the proper elemental staff! Don't worry, they are all jobs.

  12. #1012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    Because like I said, there's 2 possibilities: it either influences it or it doesn't. If it doesn't, it doesn't hurt, and if it does, the people who "figured out" the patterns used at least some form of reasoning which means it's at least slightly more likely to be right than wrong.

    But I'll just go with Zouri's 2 years worth of tracking everything and say cool, it doesn't matter.

    And I'd heard the barspell thing before and that's just bunk from a design perspective, SE wouldn't give an advantage like that only to certain jobs.

  13. #1013
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    A basic (read: high school) understanding of probability applied to the compiled data available to you in the stickies here is all you need to understand the tier system and appreciate the simplicity of the system. You're working with a conditionally randomized system that, consistently over the average of millions of synths, has been shown to be acceptably accurate. Zouri herself has crafted enough to single-handedly provide a sample size large enough to re-affirm the proposed conditional system.

    You wanna say it's xyz condition, provide a sample size large enough to support it INCLUDING equal numbers of synths on off-moon, off-day, and off-direction or kindly show yourself the door and get the fuck out with your fucking superstitious nonsense.

    No, you can't stop here, this is math country.

  14. #1014
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    the key actually is to stack resistance, notice the resistance in apron gears? that's a hint from SE, the idea is that if you want to craft using earth crystal e.g. you have to stack wind resistance to allow your body to be filled with earth energy by rejecting wind energy, this will increase your success rate, and doing the opposite will increase HQ rate but also breaking rate, so it's a risk to to resist earth energy while using earth crystal.
    every 50 resistance breaks a tier increasing or decreasing your HQ/success/break by 1% (it's multiplier, you will never reach 100% success rate), only Resistance gear works nothing else (direction/moon/day/weather/etc).








    true story.

  15. #1015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flanteus View Post
    true story.
    would read again.

  16. #1016
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    I ate at Ruth's Chris on a Tuesday night, had the best damn Ribeye of my life. Now, I know the barback there and he informed me of two things:

    1. They get deliveries on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
    2. Their head chef only works Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

    I went to Wendy's on Wednesday. My burger sucked. I know the fry guy there, and he told me two things:

    1. They get deliveries on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
    2. They're fucking Wendy's.

    Days don't matter.

    Facts matter.

    Want some fast data to show you this? Bribe us all to keep track of our crafting for one month in this magical way. And it will come out as it always has based on the tiers. But by all means, ask for data. I know I've got some I'll gladly give you if you're serious. Hell I've got a streak of over 200 NQ T1s where I tried everything short of bleeding out a pig on my living room floor.

  17. #1017
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celebrindor View Post

    Want some fast data to show you this? Bribe us all to keep track of our crafting for one month in this magical way. And it will come out as it always has based on the tiers. But by all means, ask for data. I know I've got some I'll gladly give you if you're serious. Hell I've got a streak of over 200 NQ T1s where I tried everything short of bleeding out a pig on my living room floor.
    But what direction did the pig face when it was bleeding?

  18. #1018
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    I was 1/87 on Amemet mantle +1 (T2) with my leathercraft for a time but like 5/8 dusk feet +1 (T1). Shit happens all the time, lol.

  19. #1019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celebrindor View Post
    But by all means, ask for data.
    I did ask for data, and 1 person responded, not like an asshat, but with data. And I said OK. This was also concluded several posts prior so people with reading comprehension had figured out the topic was dead.

  20. #1020
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    ...I just liked my analogy ^^

    That, and after 3 years of swearing by directional synthing, even to the point of personally believing that everyone who had great results here HAD to be lying to hide their secrets and gil making abilities....I jumped off the bandwagon.

    I synth in batches of 12. I do it when I have stockpiled up mats to do such batches. This way, I don't get swayed by a 2 or 3 synth result. Also, it makes storage of mats a little neater in my mog locker. Over time, I've seen essentially the same results- 7.5% HQ on T1, 20-25% T2, 50% T3. Gets streaky, always returns to that number.

    One could argue that the numbers "even out" because of my lackadaisical attitude of ignoring day/direction/moon, but like I said, after such a long time swearing by earth synths on windsday, or southeast direction, or new moon synths and not seeing a difference in numbers, I just stopped.

    The funny thing is to see the flood of NQs hitting the market after new moon or the matching day that is supposed to be strong to the crystal of that synth- just watch NQs of popular synths, along with food/ninja tools crafted with the crystal that matches the "proper" crystal associated with the aforementioned day. Not saying its actually worse- just saying that its pretty clear that a lot of crafters do believe in it.

    I do believe in crafting in one direction: facing my moogle. He spins and smiles when I HQ.

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