Amazing Crafts V: Zouri accidently the whole crafting forum

[Herzins]

330 gil

Ooops, you're right! lol.

[Zouri]

So i desynthed a dozen gloves into 2 behemoth leathers...
#33
edit: This was the 17th dusk gloves synth since last hq on them, but the 148th tier 0 synth since last tier 0 hq. The last tier 0 prior to these was a gold thread, so quit bitching about my hq rates.

http://i31.tinypic.com/5mkch4.jpg

[Fievel]

Tons of crafters out there only dream of HQ'n those gloves, you've HQ'd 33, people are going to bitch no matter what. ;p

Also you have like 440mil, that will cause jealous bitching.

I know you synth A LOT and that's why you have so many HQ's, but people are still going to bitch regardless. I mean CMON ZOURI YOU ACCIDENTLY THE WHOLE CRAFTING FORUM FFS

[Herzins]

[QUOTE Zouri] So i desynthed a dozen gloves into 2 behemoth leathers...
#33
edit: This was the 17th dusk gloves synth since last hq on them, but the 148th tier 0 synth since last tier 0 hq. The last tier 0 prior to these was a gold thread, so quit bitching about my hq rates.
------------------------------------------------------------

I haven't bitched about your HQ rates once... but I guess I will today... As much as you synth, you must admit that there's got to be some luck on HQing these so many times... I did over 150 synths 2-3 weeks ago while skilling up Goldsmithing (Gold dust) and then tried 12 gloves synths and 4 cerb mantles and I did not HQ'd a thing... I'm like 0/80+ synths on them gloves

And not to mention the 2/12 desynths into Behemoth Leather, I believe it's HQ 3 to get Leather back? This is also impressive... You girl crafter indeed have all the luck...!

[GavinBandura]

What's the loss like on dusk gloves now? I went 1/1 on HQ like.........3 years ago or something? Never tried again after that!!

[Herzins]

What's the loss like on dusk gloves now? I went 1/1 on HQ like.........3 years ago or something? Never tried again after that!!

The loss is like 200k now. Hides in Bismarck sell for 230k and nq gloves sell for 25-30k.

[buddyslack]

After months and months of no tier0 HQ's

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v6...717_103815.png

Only 5 synths after my hydra cuisses +1's

[shadymdub]

nothing too "Amazing" but first one I've ever made

http://i849.photobucket.com/albums/a...717_175701.png

[BerenTebogo]

[QUOTE Zouri] So i desynthed a dozen gloves into 2 behemoth leathers...
#33
edit: This was the 17th dusk gloves synth since last hq on them, but the 148th tier 0 synth since last tier 0 hq. The last tier 0 prior to these was a gold thread, so quit bitching about my hq rates.
------------------------------------------------------------

I haven't bitched about your HQ rates once... but I guess I will today... As much as you synth, you must admit that there's got to be some luck on HQing these so many times... I did over 150 synths 2-3 weeks ago while skilling up Goldsmithing (Gold dust) and then tried 12 gloves synths and 4 cerb mantles and I did not HQ'd a thing... I'm like 0/80+ synths on them gloves

And not to mention the 2/12 desynths into Behemoth Leather, I believe it's HQ 3 to get Leather back? This is also impressive... You girl crafter indeed have all the luck...!

Someone hasn't read the thread and is lucky I'm preoccupied with NCIS since Zouri has become nice enough to actually start tracking her synths and hq rates for added realism and people like you are still too extra crispy between the ears to get the message.

[Sanoske]

I think I was like 2/63 on Dusk Gloves when I quit/got my account stolen when I tried to sell it (lawwwwl). Offset all the ups and downs from Cloth.

I would play this game again just to craft. Anyone want to hook a brotha up with some free toonage? lol

[Mokou]

Went 1/1 on this today:

http://ffxi.fluffy-bunnies.co.uk/lorerobehq.jpg

Fairly easy to get the elements aligned, although it took a few attempts due to a crappy connection. I'm not sure if I want to keep it or take advantage of new item syndrome.

[Zouri]

Someone hasn't read the thread and is lucky I'm preoccupied with NCIS since Zouri has become nice enough to actually start tracking her synths and hq rates for added realism and people like you are still too extra crispy between the ears to get the message.

To be honest, I just started counting since i had no real idea how "great" my average was..... but it's far from the greatest.

sell the robe! All i see is one really expensive hmp+ item.

[Haborym]

Keep it, -10enm is nice, and its the best hmp piece for rdm. I still have mine.

[Demosthenes11]

if you need to keep gear on you just for -enm on rdm you are playing rdm very wrong

[Fiendishone]

http://i100.photobucket.com/albums/m...reweRingHQ.png

1/2

Debating on keeping it or selling to some rich RNG I know named Shadida

[Fievel]

if you need to keep gear on you just for -enm on rdm you are playing rdm very wrong

This, sell it.

[Saga]

I just don't like the term luck. People take words like luck and then say that "oh, they must be doing something to make them luckier!" and we end up back at the moon/day bullshit.

The answer is that HQs clump in the areas where the distribution of data sets are also clumped largest. The amount of HQs in question is indeed anomalous, but it will still even out over even just her personal experience too. Her material and non-dusk synths are growing every day and we don't see 99% of what is going on. Where the HQs are falling in terms of clumps of numbers does make sense statistically, even if the scales are temporarily tipped one way or another at the current time.

I don't like attributing to luck what can be explained coherently and rationally. It takes away from the whole effort against silly and non-critical thinking that develops these stupid crafting theories in the first place.

I have a question about this actually -- and this isn't just for FFXI, this is for all random drop, HQ, craft occurrences or whatever, across any other game. But we'll stick to FFXI for the example.

Does the 1/64 average or whatever it is (could be any average -- 1/10, if we want) take into account other people on the server attempting the same craft? How much of that 1/64 HQ rate is personal to the crafter? I guess my question is, given two people crafting the same item on the same server, and one of them HQs the craft, does that mean the person who didn't HQ on the craft before or after that one could have HQed instead of the other person?

It's a weird question, and I don't know if I'm explaining it correctly, but if you need me to clarify I can try. I honestly don't play FFXI anymore but I've always been curious about this.

[BerenTebogo]

To be honest, I just started counting since i had no real idea how "great" my average was..... but it's far from the greatest.

I figured that was the reason, but it's still good that you're doing it since I know you more better than the others so I know that the amount you craft is much greater than the ideas the others may have about your crafting.

Once you really get into showing people the amount that you actually craft, and how heavily you craft some items more than others, it'll be obvious why trends occur where they do and that you don't have any special or rare skill other than the lack of a need to gear 10 different jobs for HNM or event like everyone else does. You can reinvest 100% of your profits without concern.

Makes me smile because I know if you keep it up we'll have some nice sample size of tens of thousands within no time - even if it is years too late.

I have a question about this actually -- and this isn't just for FFXI, this is for all random drop, HQ, craft occurrences or whatever, across any other game. But we'll stick to FFXI for the example.

Does the 1/64 average or whatever it is (could be any average -- 1/10, if we want) take into account other people on the server attempting the same craft? How much of that 1/64 HQ rate is personal to the crafter? I guess my question is, given two people crafting the same item on the same server, and one of them HQs the craft, does that mean the person who didn't HQ on the craft before or after that one could have HQed instead of the other person?

It's a weird question, and I don't know if I'm explaining it correctly, but if you need me to clarify I can try. I honestly don't play FFXI anymore but I've always been curious about this.

I understand your question, but the answer is uncertain. At best I can give you an educated guess based on my knowledge of how other things in FFXI are programmed and my knowledge of statistics, but I'm neither a professional programmer nor a FFXI programmer and the true answer will never be found short of the dev team telling us themselves.

That said, I'll give you the best I can in an easy to understand format:

HQ rates by item:
1)In your example you used two people crafting the same item having possibly connected HQ rates. This, in my opinion, is extremely unlikely. If HQ rates varied by item and then as a subsection by # of crafters within
HQ tier X per server a large, non-linear, disparity in the number of HQ items existing by server would occur.

Also, the accepted models for HQ rates wouldn't still exist if different items had different HQ rates, and as an example for the above, an item with a slightly higher than average tendency to be HQ'd would be HQ'd at an exponentially greater rate on server X with 50 xyzcrafters in the tier over server Y with 40 xyzcrafters in the tier.

It is a phenomenon that we haven't experienced as a community in FFXI which would have been easily noticed years ago.

2) Assuming I'm interpreting your question wrong and you mean that every T0 item, for example, has the same HQ rate but two simultaneous synths by two different crafters of the same item share a probability for HQ I'm going to have to concede that I cannot answer this question with any certainty.

That said, the likelihood in my opinion of this being the case is extremely low. It would involve some extremely intricate code dependent on fractions of seconds and data being relayed based on a commonality that may occur only in the most extreme of cases. ie: crafter A is in bibiki bay and crafter B is in north gustaberg - it would be an extremely intricate feat that would have had to be programmed in on a rare as fuck contingency by programmers who have time and time again proved themselves to be unwilling to go above and beyond the least amount of work required for any task.

HQ rates by server:
1) Context A: A grand total of all T-1, T0, T1, T2, T3, and respective desynthesis and synergy tiers exists for every server and every synth that occurs is based on a probability that is unique to the server.

My opinion on this is that it is unlikely. It again goes against everything that SE programmers have shown that they are inclined to do time and again for the lifespan of FFXI. I can't speak to how difficult or easy it would be to program, but it certainly requires far more work than is necessary for no appreciable difference in game mechanics. Over the grand total of synths by server these 7 or 8 years the numbers have become so large that a by server overall probability chart would vary from a universal probability chart by +/- 0.0x at largest, and more likely 0.0000x or less.

Expected HQ stratification in FFXI:
1) Taking everything we, the community, know about the game, the crafts, and the programmers, it is most likely that a universal by-tier probability system exists.

Such a system would be a standard algorithm applied universally where as long as condition A, B, C, D, or E are met (where the conditions are the tiers for standard crafting) then probability %A, %B, %C, %D, or %E is applied and a random number generator (with presumably base 1024, correct me if I'm wrong here I believe that is what is used for the delay and PDT/MDT bases) is used to calculate the result of the synth.

Example of this would be Condition A is met (tier 0) -with no subcraft- and probability %A is applied - random number generator is executed with values attributed to region. Tier 0 let us assume 1/64 (or 16/1024) so values are assigned 1-16 = HQ, values 17-68 = break (roughly 5%) and values 69-1024 = NQ.

That's a very simplistic model but I think you get the idea. As you get higher into the HQ tiers you obviously are having the values assigned to HQ become larger, the values for break stay the same, and the values for NQ become smaller.

As subcrafts become involved the values for break become larger, and either NQ, HQ, or both values decrease. I have no evidence pointing to which one of those situations is correct.

--

It is most reasonable that every craft undertaken is checked against this system with no bias towards craft, crafter, synthesis, or outcome. It is the least amount of effort with regards to programming for covering the greatest amount of the system. It is also the least prone to error and most statistically accurate regarding the data that we do have. Every synth being independent of each previous and future synth is completely indicative of all the data we have on the topic thus far and is represented completely by the above model.

--

Hope that helps? If it doesn't answer your question maybe I can expand further.

[matt4684]

I have a question about this actually -- and this isn't just for FFXI, this is for all random drop, HQ, craft occurrences or whatever, across any other game. But we'll stick to FFXI for the example.

Does the 1/64 average or whatever it is (could be any average -- 1/10, if we want) take into account other people on the server attempting the same craft? How much of that 1/64 HQ rate is personal to the crafter? I guess my question is, given two people crafting the same item on the same server, and one of them HQs the craft, does that mean the person who didn't HQ on the craft before or after that one could have HQed instead of the other person?

It's a weird question, and I don't know if I'm explaining it correctly, but if you need me to clarify I can try. I honestly don't play FFXI anymore but I've always been curious about this.

Every result is independent of the other. One crafter HQing something doesn't mean the other won't. I seriously doubt SE went to the lengths of programming the game, for example, to cause everyone else to NQ whenever Zouri HQ's, or to say 3 people T0 in a row at 47% full moon lightsday, or no more than 6 T0s an hour per server. Shit is random

[Mugekuge]

Not that i play anymore but this synth one that i always wanted to do, like 1/120+ or something.

http://i680.photobucket.com/albums/v...9/e0f335f1.png