End of the World 2012 -- Decades off?

[Meian]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/...earthpostponed

End of the Earth Postponed

It's a good news/bad news situation for believers in the 2012 Mayan apocalypse. The good news is that the Mayan "Long Count" calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012 (and, by extension, the world may not end along with it). The bad news for prophecy believers? If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will - or if it has already.

A new critique, published as a chapter in the new textbook "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" (Oxbow Books, 2010), argues that the accepted conversions of dates from Mayan to the modern calendar may be off by as much as 50 or 100 years. That would throw the supposed and overhyped 2012 apocalypse off by decades and cast into doubt the dates of historical Mayan events. (The doomsday worries are based on the fact that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, much as our year ends on Dec. 31.)

The Mayan calendar was converted to today's Gregorian calendar using a calculation called the GMT constant, named for the last initials of three early Mayanist researchers. Much of the work emphasized dates recovered from colonial documents that were written in the Mayan language in the Latin alphabet, according to the chapter's author, Gerardo Aldana, University of California, Santa Barbara professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies.

Later, the GMT constant was bolstered by American linguist and anthropologist Floyd Lounsbury, who used data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a Mayan calendar and almanac that charts dates relative to the movements of Venus.

"He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant," Aldana said in a statement. "Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct."

But according to Aldana, Lounsbury's evidence is far from irrefutable.

"If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the FMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data," he said. That historical data, he said, is less reliable than the Table itself, causing the argument for the GMT constant to fall "like a stack of cards."

Aldana doesn't have any answers as to what the correct calendar conversion might be, preferring to focus on why the current interpretation may be wrong. Looks like end-of-the-world theorists may need to find another ancient calendar on which to pin their apocalyptic hopes.

Not in stone yet but eh curious to how this may be, especially if it has already passed. Also, FMT? Typo or did I miss something.

[Kuya]

I wonder if human superstition is a trait worth keeping.

[Tagus]

They built some amazing buildings, but they burned their virgins alive instead of screwing them. 'Nuff said.

[Bikpik]

Because someone decided to start counting the years at a certain point, the world is going to end because they ran out of paper?

[BerenTebogo]

People smart enough to be able to turn on a computer believe in this crap? Lol.

[Xno Kappa]

Exactly what we need. The shit postponed so dumbasses can be like, "we dunt know teh exact date but its going to happen durrrrr!"

[Kerberoz]

They're already making excuses for when 2013 rolls in without an apocalypse.

[Moss]

http://reactorfire.files.wordpress.c...pg?w=375&h=445

[isladar]

I wonder if human superstition is a trait worth keeping.

insofar as it helps with adaptive conservatism and type II errors

[Acturus]

Well, this is great for Roland Emmerich's and John Cusack's careers.

[Jojothemidget]

Well even if the mayan calendar was wrong i was hoping this thread was a discussion about a possible skynet/terminator/Zombie horde apocalypse.

[bigrougabagel]

This is really throwing a wrench in my gears for my plan to manufacture an anasasi doomsday prediction in 2042.

[Kuya]

insofar as it helps with adaptive conservatism and type II errors

Type II errors? You mean statistical type II errors? How so? Also, what is adaptive conservatism.

[AoE]

Who gives a flying fuck?

[Effluo]

The establishment is just trying to avert everyone's fears because they know it's coming. The less people prepared mean more resources for them after the apocolypse. Don't let your guard down, that's what they want!

[Priran]

No. Shut up. The conversion is exactly accurate. That way, when 2013 rolls around and nothing happens, it will be last I ever hear of this shit. Alright?

[Diamicles]

if the end of the world is supposed to be in 2012, i dont think there will be anyone around to say 'told ya so'

[BerenTebogo]

No. Shut up. The conversion is exactly accurate. That way, when 2013 rolls around and nothing happens, it will be last I ever hear of this shit. Alright?

It will never end. This is only a partial list. http://www.religioustolerance.org/end_wrl2.htm

[Uzor]

They're already making excuses for when 2013 rolls in without an apocalypse.

The hillarious part is that when 2013 rolls in, people will probably believe that we just interpreted it wrong, and state that the new "We're off by a hundred years" date is the correct one. Although they'll probably go by 10 years at a time.

And when the world finally DO end (because, let's face it, mankind nor earth will survive forever), people will go "So THIS was the correct Mayan date?!".

[Shenrien]

we've been reading the calendar upside down, 2102 is when the world ends, let our children worry about it.