Go vote

[Atreides]

The last elections proved no one is really safe, while the Tea Party may not have the best success rate (about 50%) in general elections they are VERY good at winning primaries. It's not just Bennett/Castle, and they're already planning on trying to knock off Snowe/Brown/Hatch. Maybe people like Boehner are safe but this is definitely not an issue where establishment republicans and the tea party have different views so it wouldn't really make sense for them to go against eachother. The problem Republicans have is a schism between the tea party and the establishment, and if the goal is to close that gap they need to deliver real tangible results on an issue that appeals to both, so making Democrats compromise on upper class taxes is an easy way to do it.

[aurik]

Those districts are pretty safe. Even if they did swing democrat once, they'd swing back republican next election barring another huge groundswell election.

A lot of people are like "this and that republican mandate etc" but the truth is, a good amount of the losses are just the normal negative-coattail effect in the midterm election. Obama's election in 2008 had the effect of pulling a lot of districts that were heavily republican towards the center, and winning many. Those districts were going to be impossible to win in 2010 even if the democrats were polling well. The fact that the American people are stupid and want 2 more years of gridlock didn't help either.

Also TP has to be careful about offing moderate republicans and replacing them with idealogues. If they're not very careful about the replacement candidate, you end up with the delaware situation all over again. In essence, anything to the right of a moderate republican in those seats would have trouble winning.

[Atreides]

I'm pretty sure neither one of us meant "safe" as in democrat vs republican, but instead establishment republican vs tea party in the primary.

I mean, Tea Party candidates either unseated their mainstream opponents or otherwise threw a monkey wrench in establishment plans in Utah, Alaska, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Delaware, Kentucky, Florida, hell they even almost unseated Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire... and that's just the Senate! Maybe Boehner/McConnell have staying power but I doubt they want to see the Tea party start picking off their allies in MA/ME/UT come 2012, that's why they have to make peace with the Tea Party.

And yeah, that mandate thing is bullshit. Republicans themselves know they only poll around 39% approval ratings (dems are at 38%) yet somehow they think they have a clear mandate to repeal obamacare and extend the bush taxcuts and focus on all the shit that ISN'T JOBS. That's what I think is ultimately going to bite them in the ass, especially with what you were saying about the Bush Tax Cut fight being an easy political hit for the Dems in 2012 because it makes the fight solely about taxes for the rich.

It was funny, just a few days ago Gov. Rick Perry (TX) was on CNN saying that "only 48% of americans want to repeal obamacare" is a "Clear mandate" that americans want to get rid of it, and when Candy Crowley pressed him about it he basically implied that the people didn't know any better. General Gov. Perry craziness aside, that more people haven't caught on that Republicans haven't really gotten the message of this past election any more than Democrats is appalling, although not entirely surprising.

[aurik]

Ah sorry, I misread you then.

Also Rs will jury-rig the primaries next time around so that no witches allowed.

[aurik]

Also the message of the people this past election is pretty much "I still don't have a job, not voting for the dude in office"

[Atreides]

yeah just rig a cauldron of water above the voting booth, then hire halliburton to illegaly dump liquified witch remains into local water supply. Win-win!

[aurik]

All joking aside, they will definitely massage the primary rules so that they won't have another Delaware debacle on their hands. Same with Sharron Angle, a sane candidate there would have slaughtered Reid.

[Atreides]

Also the message of the people this past election is pretty much "I still don't have a job, not voting for the dude in office"

Yeah definitely, that's pretty much how the Democrats essentially destroyed their base in the midwest and south, since that's where most of the manufacturing jobs were lost (and are never coming back). They're essentially votes of desperation.

That's why it's probably going to be Obama's priority #1 over the next 2 years to push that green jobs/infrastructure plan through, but the Republic of Tea Party is going to fight him hard on it because oh hey, government spending.

Don't these people realize that if the people don't have any money, corporations aren't spending money, and the government is stopped from spending money... then no money is being spent and everything stops?

[aurik]

No, in general they weren't alive during FDR. And the people who actually were now vote based social security rather than jobs.

[Atreides]

they vote because they're afraid of gays and mexicans/muslims too

[Altariel]

tell me who is gonna look worse. Democrats for letting the tax cuts expire for everyone because of Filibustering Republicans?

In reality I don't think it is widely known how much legislative action the Republicans have blocked in the last two years. They merely threaten to filibuster just about everything, then they complain about "backroom deals" and the voters buy it. I think the best thing that Harry Reid could do is to bring back old school filibusters so they have to get up in front of a camera and read the telephone book instead of doing the people's business. Make the dumbfucks actually look like dumbfucks for a change.

[Ksandra]

*shuddder* Palin has a tv show now, I hope it does poorly. I know people think she wouldn't have a chance in hell of being the next president, but that's the type of thing that you need to watch out for before it comes to bite you in the ass.

If the show does well you just know idiots will vote for her thinking "well her daughter is so cute!"


That's not to say people already don't vote for stupid reasons, but now it's more in your face.

[SwampdonkeyPLD]

How long did Dem's have a super-majority before Republican threats to filibuster even mattered?

[Altariel]

About 4 months between when Arlen Specter changed parties and Ted Kennedy died. You are correct in that regard and I do fault Reid and the Democratic committee chairmen for drag their feet on their legislative agenda early in the term. It was totally inexcusable that health insurance reform took as long as it did. They waited too long looking for a "bi-partisan" bill that was never going to happen once the Republicans decided to say no to everything.

[Atreides]

you can pretty much blame harry reid for DADT as well, i mean no one was going to touch the defense authorization bill that repealed it as long as it had a controversial immigration policy bootstrapped to it in an election year.

[aurik]

Having 60 people that are aligned with your party is not the same thing as having 60 people willing to vote yes on any piece of legislation. As always, there are moderates and wingers in each party. That's why Jon Stewart jokes so much about the Rs having "control" of the senate with 40 seats.

This is pretty normal recently: the house passes whatever it pleases, with ease, and the fight is all about getting 60 in Senate to pass cloture, unless you have a hostile exec, at which point you need 67 to override the veto.

That's why health care was such a win on the scale of Social Security, Medicare, Civil Rights, etc. These kinds of earth-shifting policy changes only happen at best once or twice a generation. So, while they'll continue to tinker with the bill, and run election campaigns on repealing it, it will never get truly repealed barring another huge upheaval of the political landscape. And the longer they tinker with it and people get adjusted to it, the harder it will be to repeal even if one party does have majority/60/president.

[arus2001]

*shuddder* Palin has a tv show now, I hope it does poorly. I know people think she wouldn't have a chance in hell of being the next president, but that's the type of thing that you need to watch out for before it comes to bite you in the ass.

If the show does well you just know idiots will vote for her thinking "well her daughter is so cute!"


That's not to say people already don't vote for stupid reasons, but now it's more in your face.

I saw the ad for that shit and her saying something along the lines of how she wished she could stay in the outdoors or whatever. First thought, "Please do."

[aurik]

Having 60 people that are aligned with your party is not the same thing as having 60 people willing to vote yes on any piece of legislation. As always, there are moderates and wingers in each party. That's why Jon Stewart jokes so much about the Rs having "control" of the senate with 40 seats.

This is pretty normal recently: the house passes whatever it pleases, with ease, and the fight is all about getting 60 in Senate to pass cloture, unless you have a hostile exec, at which point you need 67 to override the veto.

That's why health care was such a win on the scale of Social Security, Medicare, Civil Rights, etc. These kinds of earth-shifting policy changes only happen at best once or twice a generation. So, while they'll continue to tinker with the bill, and run election campaigns on repealing it, it will never get truly repealed barring another huge upheaval of the political landscape. And the longer they tinker with it and people get adjusted to it, the harder it will be to repeal even if one party does have majority/60/president.

Quotin myself on dis

http://www.frumforum.com/waterloo

[Rhinox]

you can pretty much blame harry reid for DADT as well, i mean no one was going to touch the defense authorization bill that repealed it as long as it had a controversial immigration policy bootstrapped to it in an election year.

What?

Newflash GOP hates gays more then they hate Mexicans.

[Atreides]

the point is with 30% approval rating DADT would probably happen one way or another, especially if it was attached to the defense authorization bill by itself. Even Snowe/Collins said they would have voted for it last time if Reid hadn't finagled it so republicans couldn't discuss or amend the bill