Tanaka Keynote at GDC China

[Spira]

firstly, i'd just like say..
bidding is guessing but its your assessment of how much you'd like to spend on an item. The idea is that you bid the price that you think the item is worth and if someone thinks he should be selling at that value or lower, the purchase is yours. Now obviously, if you're still willing to bid higher and higher, that means you haven't reached your limit yet, and if you think you're somehow paying more than you should be after that, then you're lying to yourself because you could just as easily have walked away. If you didn't, that would mean that your demand for that item was higher than you first thought.

You completely skipped over where I specified it was an item that was usually stocked and any lack of supply currently on the AH is often a fluke and doesn't accurately represent the supply/demand of the item because of limitations on sellers and item expiration.

lol. if you think that systemic supply shortage needs to somehow be excluded because its a 'fluke' then your concept of demand and supply is just nonsense. shortage of supply, fluke or no fluke, due to the AH system or whatsoever still reflect fluctuations in supply on the market, and will influence demand. Be it for 1 day, or even 5 minutes, because the AH is always open for buyers to bid, every supply point will have demand to go along with it.

fully agree with the points Spider made.

but really now, this thread has become a 'those who understand economics' vs 'those who think they understand economics but really dont' debate, with a few 'those who think FFXIVs broken market ward system will miraculously become its economy's magic bullet once patched even though they dont know exactly what will be done to it' thrown in.

[miokomioko]

Or, Spider-Dan flipped his retarded wig over my comment of how "price-gougers" created an inconvenience in XI because of how its AH was designed and if XIV's market ward search function has a price list, that type of selling would be less intrusive to the buyer experience because he thinks people who use the term "price-gouging" and "undercutting" automatically don't know what they mean. He's just being an obnoxious asshole and keeps dodging the point of my statement to try his darnedest to poke holes in my stupid, irrelevant example as if it matters.

ITT: Hey guys, what's this whole "reserve price" thing about?

That would mean something if any normal auction immediately stopped as soon as anyone hit or went over the reserve price. That's not really how it works. You might have more of an argument if you specifically bring up a Sealed First-Price Auction. There's a reason that a No-Reserve Auction is referred to as an "absolute auction." However, this is getting into stupid semantics tangent about what "auction" implies and whether you're idea of a "blindly guessing" marketplace applies to the concept as a whole or just some obscure, secret, single-bid auction.

those who think FFXIVs broken market ward system will miraculously become its economy's magic bullet

You kids love your straw men.

[Selamis]

WTF is wrong with you people? Auctions are ENTIRELY ABOUT BLINDLY GUESSING!

Have none of you ever actually seen an auction? You do know that you have NO F*CKING IDEA who will bid against you or how high they will go, right?

FFXI's AH is f*cking care bear mode compared to a REAL auction. Based on the complaints you and yours are making, if you were forced to compete in an actual auction, your heads would explode.

Well yes and no. Silent auctions is what you're describing here, a real auction though is where they have an item for display and they start a bid at a certain price and the guy yells out prices and people raise their number card if they wish to bid on it, so you do have an idea of what you're bidding against. Even in silent auctions though, you as a secondary bidder see what's ahead of you, only is it after you bid that you don't know what the bid is currently at.

Say there was a signed picture of an athlete on display to win and the current bid was $50, so you really want it and put a bid down of $100. After that you're done and walk away, not knowing until the auction closes if you won or not, or if someone else came up after you and bid higher, if they wanted it more. In games, auctions might be about blindly guessing, at least in FFXI, but real auctions do have a science to them and unless you're the crazy lady from FF6 just shouting out obscene numbers from the start to ensure you get your item, blindly guessing might not be the way to go unless you have tons of money to blow.

[Spira]

why.. guilty?

FFXI AH functions in a way that each bid is an individual reverse auction with 1 buyer bid and multiple sellers with their own undisclosed reserve price. The rules are simply that the seller with the lowest reserve price that the bid exceeds will win the bid, selling at the bid price. Its simple and effective.

[Spider-Dan]

ITT: Hey guys, what's this whole "reserve price" thing about?

That would mean something if any normal auction immediately stopped as soon as anyone hit or went over the reserve price.

Wrong yet again, but you're evading (or trying to), so I'll clean up there first:

You said that "paying what the seller wants or values something at or going home empty handed is NOT what auctions are about." It is EXACTLY (and ENTIRELY) what any auction with a reserve price is about. So you are flat-out, without a question, dead to rights on that point.

Now, as to your attempt to shift the discussion: no, FFXI's auctions are not "true" auctions. If they were, when sellers did the "price-gouging" that so irritates you, the price would go all the way up to the maximum that ANYONE was willing to pay within the auction's timeframe (not just the first bid to beat reserve). In comparison, FFXI has a kiddie-style, penny-ante type auction... and whiners like you are STILL bitching that it's too unfair.

If FFXI had a auction house with real auctions, your dreams would be crushed. Every single complaint you have had in this thread would be magnified tenfold, which makes your constant attempts to (negatively) contrast FFXI with what you perceive to be "real" auctions... well, just bizarre and irrational.

Clearly your problem (outside of a fundamental ignorance of basic economics) is that you simply don't understand how auctions work. If you did, you wouldn't be insulting FFXI for not being enough like a real auction, because that would have made all of your "problems" far worse.

[Spider-Dan]

Well yes and no. Silent auctions is what you're describing here, a real auction though is where they have an item for display and they start a bid at a certain price and the guy yells out prices and people raise their number card if they wish to bid on it, so you do have an idea of what you're bidding against.

No, you don't.

In a normal auction, you have NO IDEA how many people will bid against you or how high they intend to bid. You can only BLINDLY GUESS (by increasing your bid) and hope that everyone else stops bidding. (Contrast this with walking into a store, seeing a listed price, and deciding whether or not to pay that price.)

You only find out what you were really bidding against after you have already won, at which point it is not exactly practical information.

[Cooleko]

Id rather have prices than bidding if the AH is implemented. No reason to not see what the person wants for the item. I would rather pay 15k for a 10k item than to try 10k 11k 12k 13k 14k and have to wait for that retardedly slow "you didnt buy the item" message which may be washed out by shouts before you see it.

I would have to say that you are missing the point. If the item consistently sold at 10k and was all sold out. Sure economics agrees with you the supply is not meeting demand so the price will increase. However, it isn't an invisible increase. I willing to pay the increase but I am not willing to invest 5 minutes into figuring out what you set your increase at 100% 150% 200%. Just tell me already and let me buy.

The only problem with FFXI was trying to figure out what the seller wanted without guessing 20 times. It has nothing to do with what I think the value is because if i think it is at max 15k, and i guess 6 times 10,11,12,13,14,15 before giving up and deciding the seller is not worth the time. IF everyone agrees with me he loses his opportunity to sell and brings the item back at the price we think it is worth. You are only arguing that if i accept the 20k price that it is now the norm. If we don't accept the price it is not. (the other side of basic economics your missing while blowing air).

If the item sold for 10k it is not unreasonable to try to get it for 11, 12, 15, .... What is unreasonable is having to guess 10 times to arrive at what the seller thinks his product is worth (in your case 20k).
I am willing to pay 20k for the item and there is nothing wrong with my assessment as I will pay the price. But who will pay what they think the value is if market trends are lower? If market said the item is 10k I may be willing to pay 20k but I am not going to start there and economics doesn't agree that I should either. I dont see your econ teacher giving out free money because he would pay more. When gas is 3.00/gallon I dont give the store 4.00 I pay what they ask for regardless of what the max I would ever pay.

Auctions are not about blindly guessing. They are a competition between buyers to see who will pay the most for what they want and have solid values that increase as more people bid. Blindly guessing until you hit the lowest number a seller will take is not "the one defining feature of what auctions are about".

WTF is wrong with you people? Auctions are ENTIRELY ABOUT BLINDLY GUESSING!

Have none of you ever actually seen an auction? You do know that you have NO F*CKING IDEA who will bid against you or how high they will go, right?

FFXI's AH is f*cking care bear mode compared to a REAL auction. Based on the complaints you and yours are making, if you were forced to compete in an actual auction, your heads would explode.

In a real auction I know how much I'll spend, X. Player B knows how much he will spend, Y. I will buy the item for Y+1 (assuming X > Y). But you will buy the item for X. I understand, please go away now. You don't value your money as you made the same argument over and over.

I can see how you interpret blind, you had to deviate from the ffxi argument to get something right, but w/e you need. You are assuming that because you don't know where it stops it is blind. I think because I see a clear value to offer that it is not blind. I still like my interpretation but I'll give you that, in an auction where you are competing against someone else it is blind (despite the fact that you know exactly what you are dealing with [the last bid]).
But FFXI auction house is not an Auction like you had to revert to just to win a point. There is a set value that neither you nor player B set. The second either hits or goes over that value you win. You don't even feel competition. In 5 years I never had a single item on the AH when i started bidding and then it disappeared before I finished bidding (yes it could happen).

you argued economics of ffxi but you were wrong. You then made broad statements about how real auctions and you were right. Returning to ffxi you are still wrong.

If you want to argue my ffxi points then qoute them and argue them, but please stop quoting me and arguing mioko's economics. Dont say my economics are wrong when I am agreeing with you [didnt quote the fella but he is a few posts up], and dont say an auction will make my head explode when you are the one that will pay more than you should at one. This is simple stuff dont lose sight of what your arguing.

[Corrderio]

Wow how'd this go from AH VS Retainers to RL economics?

I'm not saying the AH system was the best out there, however it's a hell of a lot better than the Retainer system is. Currently it's nothing but a clusterfuck due to all the NPCs being focused in a small area and nothing done to discourage people from selling items in wards they shouldn't be (Crystal vendors in the battlecraft ward for example). Then there's the issue of once you set a NPC you can't move/summon them until you go to the ward they're currently assigned to and dismiss them, which is a huge pain in the ass if you're in a different city-state than your retainer is. So why not give our retainers a small amount of anima so we can dismiss and summon them to the city-state we're in?

All in all the more changes they make the more it's going to feel like XI's AH, just with another hurdle or two to jump over. So why not just cut to the chase and demolish the retainer system and give us an AH system? I'm pretty sure there's some way SE could make one that wouldn't cause undercutting.

[Hyan]

All in all the more changes they make the more it's going to feel like XI's AH, just with another hurdle or two to jump over. So why not just cut to the chase and demolish the retainer system and give us an AH system? I'm pretty sure there's some way SE could make one that wouldn't cause undercutting.

Yeah I'm all for this too, but of course depending on how long it takes. If I have to wait half a year for them to build the system from the ground-up, I sure as hell would like some hotfixes to ease the current problems first. It's also not like it would all go to waste, as long as they can think up alternative uses for it.

[Corrderio]

Oh I agree 100%. However I hope the new producer abolishes it and adds an AH ASAP, since the whole "AH promotes undercutting" is a poor excuse to me. Since with the search function coming this afternoon (Unless it was moved to the update around the end of the year) I don't see how this won't have people browse prices on other reatiners then undercut on their own.

Either way like someone said in the XIV complaint thread, the rank 1-50 market is already shot to hell.

[Spider-Dan]

In a real auction I know how much I'll spend, X. Player B knows how much he will spend, Y. I will buy the item for Y+1 (assuming X > Y). But you will buy the item for X. I understand, please go away now. You don't value your money as you made the same argument over and over.

Listen, it's quite simple: time has value. If you want to sit there raising your bids by 100g a pop, you go right ahead. But don't subsequently turn around and complain that it "takes forever" to buy items. If you are dissatisfied with the amount of time that bidding takes, start incrementing your bids like you mean it.

[Spira]

All in all the more changes they make the more it's going to feel like XI's AH, just with another hurdle or two to jump over. So why not just cut to the chase and demolish the retainer system and give us an AH system? I'm pretty sure there's some way SE could make one that wouldn't cause undercutting.

omg. this is the point ive been making too. the more conveniences the new ward systems have, the closer it will ultimately resemble the AH structure, except it'd still be less convenient lol.

[miokomioko]

Once XIV's Market Wards functions more like XI's AH, the more the two market systems will have their own pros and cons. As long as the Market Wards gets a cross-ward search complete with price listings as well as that teleport-to-seller option, I would pick the Market Wards over the AH. I don't like guessing at an item's price via bids as a buyer and I don't like having price histories as a seller. I don't think it's a hefty price to pay to teleport to a retainer to grab the item you searched. XI's AH sure could have used a search instead of populating a list of every fucking boot in the game before seeing if something was in stock and/or checking prices. All of the colors and qualities of items in XIV just make it even less likely to have an "AH." You're dreaming if you expect them to just "cut to the chase and demolish the retainer system and give us an AH." You're also stubborn as shit if you can't think of any realistic ways the Market Wards can be adjusted to work better without just reverting back to a system from a game you're more familiar/comfortable with.

[Zilong]

As long as the Market Wards gets a cross-ward search complete with price listings as well as that teleport-to-seller option, I would pick the Market Wards over the AH.

Will this update come before or after the one that allows retainer to gives blowjobs and candy?

[CasualPlayer]

Even in the clusterfuck that is the FFXIV market wards, people are still proactively undercutting each other. That's just the way economics works.

Just add the AH already. If anything it will stop all the bitching and since its "familiar" it will placate everyone.

Let us keep two retainers. One we can leave in any designated selling area, a la Rollanmart, and the other we can use as a traveling mule.

Or hell, do away with market wards all together and make a single ward, call it the AH, and make us leave our retainers there. Same thing as FFXI AH just more selling slots.

[Spira]

Will this update come before or after the one that allows retainer to gives blowjobs and candy?

i like you.

[Spider-Dan]

I don't like guessing at an item's price via bids as a buyer[...]

So you don't like the concept of an auction, then, which makes an auction house inherently dissatisfying for you...

[...]and I don't like having price histories as a seller.

So you don't like your buyers having easy access to information as to what an item is actually worth.

I don't think it's a hefty price to pay to teleport to a retainer to grab the item you searched. XI's AH sure could have used a search instead of populating a list of every fucking boot in the game before seeing if something was in stock and/or checking prices.

Notwithstanding the fact that I'm certain that there are plenty of different ways to implement an AH UI, I'm pretty certain that the slowest AH category will be faster than the fastest retainer teleport (if one exists) by a factor of at least 3 (probably closer to 10).

And even that generous concession presumes that the market ward search UI itself will not be drastically slower than FFXI's AH UI. Given that every other UI in FFXI is significantly faster than every UI in XIV, that seems to be quite a reach on your part.

All of the colors and qualities of items in XIV just make it even less likely to have an "AH."

FFXI's AH has more items than currently exist in this game, and that's with "PS2 limitations."

You're also stubborn as shit if you can't think of any realistic ways the Market Wards can be adjusted to work better without just reverting back to a system from a game you're more familiar/comfortable with.

Maybe I am stubborn, but you're incredibly misguided if you think that Market Wards will solve the problems that you had with the AH, particularly since the problems that you had with the AH were simply the symptoms of other outside factors which are still (potentially) applicable to XIV.

[miokomioko]

Are you having fun stretching everything to say something I'm not actually saying?

Auctions are NOT about repeatedly guessing at the seller's value of their item until you figure out how much they actually want for it and then just paying that. Why can't you understand that and stop going off on this tangent? Even if you bring up a "reserve auction," that doesn't mean the item won't sell if it's not met. It's just a safety for a seller so they can decide whether or not to sell the item if bids didn't reach their pre-decided value. The only thing "auction-ish" about the XI's system is that it allows the wealthy I-don't-give-a-fuck person to come in, offer a shitload of money and get the item for whatever inflated price they offer for the convenience of not sitting there bidding in small increments. It's simply a convenience fee for not having to wait or look around for a better price. Even that isn't necessarily a defining characteristic of an Auction. There's a reason that the fuel gas station next to the freeway costs a lot more than the fuel at some gas station deep in some residential/industrial area. Convenience. It's everywhere in the real marketplace and it will exist in the Market Wards regarding the three cities' markets.

Say you do a search for an product on Google. You see that the price of what you want ranges anywhere from $30~$50 everywhere it's sold. You go to some random store that carries it and you have no idea what this particular place's price for the item is because it's a fucking secret. All you can assume is that it's probably somewhere between 29 and 51. You walk up to the counter, ask for your item, and give them $30. The guy says "not enough." You put down another dollar. "Not enough." Repeat this dozen or so times until you're nearing $48... $49. Then you think to yourself. Fuck this was a waste of time, I don't want to pay top end price for this thing when I know I can find it for $30 somewhere. You take your stack of $49 off of the counter and go drive around somewhere else (or wait for another one to go up on the AH). It's slow and fucking dumb and does not resemble an auction. I would much rather have the price right there, people who can afford to sell for lower will get the most business. This is how things work. I'm not going to even visit the stores that are selling the item for $40~$50.

FFXI's AH has more items than currently exist in this game, and that's with "PS2 limitations."

Good work thinking incredibly short-term. Even you should know there was no point to this comment. I'm sure AH lists will get way too stupid with lists that look like:

Leather Shoes
Leather Shoes +1
Leather Shoes +2
Leather Shoes +3
Leather Shoes Red
Leather Shoes Red +1
Leather Shoes Red +2
Leather Shoes Red +3
Leather Shoes Black
Leather Shoes Black +1
Leather Shoes Black +2
Leather Shoes Black +3
Leather Shoes Green
Leather Shoes Green +1
Leather Shoes Green +2
Leather Shoes Green +3
Leather Shoes Ochre
Leather Shoes Ochre +1
Leather Shoes Ochre +2
Leather Shoes Ochre +3

For one, single item!

you're incredibly misguided if you think that Market Wards will solve the problems that you had with the AH

This is where you are mistaken. You think that because I mentioned "price gouging" that I think it's a "problem" specifically with the AH along with "undercutting" and these things are going to be alleviated by the Market Wards. No. I'm fully aware it's a natural result of supply/demand. I'm trying to get across to you that the time/frustration inconvenience inflicted on buyers by price-hiking in XI will not exist in XIV under the assumption of a few things regarding future adjustments.

Assumption 1: The search function will work across all wards in a single city.
Assumption 2: The search results will show prices.
Assumption 3: They implement the mentioned teleport-to-this-retainer command.

I was never talking about how the Market Wards will miraculously relieve economic frustrations with how items get more expensive when the supply goes down, hurrrrrr. I'm talking about the buying experience in such a situation because of the fact that XI hides the fucking seller's perceived value of an item. If the prices were all visible, not only would sellers get exactly what they priced things at, the cheapest would sell first, the items left over would naturally have a premium for being the last few left. What is so wrong with this?

My personal issues with XI's AH will not apply to XIV under those above assumptions because my problem isn't with economics, it's with the fucking guessing game you have to play to buy an item.



You have officially blown this out of proportion because you flipped out about the words "price gouging" and felt like you needed to "correct" someone even though you entirely missed the fucking point. That's my last reply to this retarded argument so feel free to get the last word in or whatever it is you need to do.

Good day sir.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_OKXjhtLoV-...onocle-man.JPG

[Hyan]

Assumption 1: The search function will work across all wards in a single city.

I have a strong reason to believe the search function will scan wards individually, for now at least.

[miokomioko]

Yeah, I'm beginning to doubt it will come true... I'm sure hoping they realize it will not help the "everyone pile in the Battlecraft Ward" problem if they don't do it.