NFL Offseason Thread: March 3, 2011. A date which will live in infamy.

[tyven]

Heady, Eagles Nation would be proud to have you this year, should you choose to join us. We already have Miz, and by extension of him tyven as well.

you had me last year. iirc i was leading the charge for Vick way before you actual fans came around to it. You all wanted Kolb Kolb Kolb and I was like you guys are the worst fans, thank god i have arrived to right the ship

[Flarega]

Saving for the move to LA!

Well they're building a new stadium here... so yeah I doubt it.

[recuperi]

I just realized that Le'Ron McClain was actually a FA too. How did the Ravens guys here not mention that? The Leach signing had me seriously WTFing too until now. Is he even any good in terms of blocking duties or is that what's kept McClain on the market for this long? Arian Foster ain't gonna have near the numbers he had last year without a pro bowl FB ahead of him lol.


edit: yeah, it's most likely gonna be SD if anybody, but it was the first snappy thing that came to mind D:

[Mertron]

SUP BITCHES

http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot..._6093783_n.jpg

YO, I GET TRADED YET OR WHAT?

[Chun Liroy]

Jason Taylor signed with Miami, again. I like! Maybe he can feed some info on Jets schemes.

Colombo expected to sign with Miami. Why does Miami like Cowboy's sloppy seconds for some reason.

[AidenCarby]

Patriots looking at Tommie Harris :O, D-line is going to be extra mean this year.

[Conrad]

you had me last year. iirc i was leading the charge for Vick way before you actual fans came around to it. You all wanted Kolb Kolb Kolb and I was like you guys are the worst fans, thank god i have arrived to right the ship

vick is still kinda overrated though but it doesn't matter cause VINCE YOUNG BABY

[Demosthenes11]

you ready archi!?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...erback-rating/

Quarterback rating is a statistic every football fan knows but few really get. Why is it scaled so that 158.3 is a perfect score? Why does it only include passing, and not other aspects of quarterback play like avoiding sacks and running? Why does it penalize interceptions but not fumbles? Why does it treat a six-yard completion on second-and-5 the same as a six-yard completion on third-and-11?

The NFL adopted passer rating as an official statistic in 1973, and the quest to improve passer rating began almost immediately. Now ESPN is poised to take the biggest step yet toward an improved rating that will be both a better assessment of how good a quarterback is and an easier stat for average NFL fans to understand.

The new stat, which ESPN is calling the Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), will be unveiled during a TV special on Friday night. Developing Total QBR was a joint venture between some of the statheads at ESPN and NFL analysts like Trent Dilfer, Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski. The bottom line, as one of ESPN’s statisticians put it in a press release, is, “If you want one stat that measures the totality of a quarterback’s performance, it’s QBR.”

Unlike passer rating, Total QBR considers everything a quarterback does except handoffs. Quarterback runs, sacks, fumbles and penalties, all of which are ignored by passer rating, are included in Total QBR.

Total QBR also includes the situation of the play, such as down and distance, field position and the time left in the game. So a quarterback who runs for two yards on third-and-1 will be rewarded in the system, while a quarterback who runs for two yards on third-and-10 will be penalized. And a quarterback who racks up a bunch of passing yards while his team is way behind in the fourth quarter, playing against a prevent defense, won’t be treated the same as a quarterback who racks up a bunch of passing yards in the process of helping his team build a lead in the first half.

One of the aspects of Total QBR that could be both a strength and a drawback is that it considers data that the average fan doesn’t have access to, like how far a pass travels in the air, and whether the quarterback was under pressure when he threw it. That could be a great benefit of Total QBR because it incorporates detailed information that only comes from film study, not from the box score. The drawback, however, is that it means fans can’t see for themselves exactly where Total QBR comes from — fans just have to trust that ESPN correctly measured how far the ball traveled, and correctly assessed the amount of pressure the quarterback felt on the play.

Despite all those extra elements that go into Total QBR, the stat is designed to be easier to understand than traditional passer rating. Toward that end, Total QBR is based on a scale where 100 is perfect and 50 is average. No more perfect scores of 158.3.

If you’re curious how Total QBR works in practice, Mike Sando of ESPN.com writes that the top quarterbacks of 2010, according to Total QBR, were Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. The worst quarterbacks, according to Total QBR, were Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

That seems roughly correct, but then again you didn’t need an advanced stat to tell you that. And right now we don’t know all the details of exactly how this stat is calculated.

If ESPN is committed to this stat and is able to clearly and concisely explain it on the Worldwide Leader’s NFL broadcasts, then fans will quickly become familiar with it and it will soon become a staple of how we talk about quarterbacks. On the other hand, if the stat comes across as too convoluted — or if it doesn’t really seem like much of an improvement on the current passer rating — then this will all feel like a rather pointless exercise. We’ll be interested to see how it’s presented on Friday night. And we’ll be interested to hear what PFT Planet thinks.

[Demosthenes11]

looks like brady has the highest total QBR in nfl history

[Naafeih]

How last season broke down:

# Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.

# Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.

# Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.

# Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.

# Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.

# Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

[Tweek]

Saving for the move to LA!

pfffffffffft fuck that and fuck LA, we moving to Santa Clara worse case scenario... although they did talk about Raiders/Niners sharing a stadium.. that would be a nightmare. I'm just glad Gore is reporting back to camp

[Xajii]

I just realized that Le'Ron McClain was actually a FA too. How did the Ravens guys here not mention that? The Leach signing had me seriously WTFing too until now. Is he even any good in terms of blocking duties or is that what's kept McClain on the market for this long? Arian Foster ain't gonna have near the numbers he had last year without a pro bowl FB ahead of him lol.


edit: yeah, it's most likely gonna be SD if anybody, but it was the first snappy thing that came to mind D:

I dunno who else in this thread is a Ravens guy, I think there's some people without avatars who I can never remember their names, but persoanlly, idgaf about McClain, he's inconsistent

[Flarega]

pfffffffffft fuck that and fuck LA, we moving to Santa Clara worse case scenario... although they did talk about Raiders/Niners sharing a stadium.. that would be a nightmare. I'm just glad Gore is reporting back to camp

They're moving to santa clara. Every case scenario.

[Conrad]

you ready archi!?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...erback-rating/

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

[Moss]

How last season broke down:

# Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.

It appears they knew what they were doing with this Total QBR thing. I like it.

[Ishido]

you ready archi!?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...erback-rating/

A stat that requires unquantifiable stats to determine performance, and fans don't have access to the numbers to get an idea of where it is coming from? Sounds fantastic. Trent Dilfer contributing? Even better.

[Demosthenes11]

As long as fans can see what's taken into account, I don't see the big deal. and it's obviously quantifiable if it's being factored, or else there wouldn't be an end result.

[bigrougabagel]

and correctly assessed the amount of pressure the quarterback felt on the play.

So are we talking atmospheres or kilo pascals?

[Ishido]

As long as fans can see what's taken into account, I don't see the big deal. and it's obviously quantifiable if it's being factored, or else there wouldn't be an end result.

If there is a formula and the numbers (even arbitrary ones like "pressure") are viewable I think it's fine, but the way the article/whatever is written it seems like those things will not be visible. I like the idea a lot, but I am just skeptical at their ability to include as much information (and the varieties of information) as they say they are into one rating.

I am picking on pressure because while there are ways to quantify it, it seems like it would be too arbitrary. Something like distance from QB to defender is possible, but there are situations where a defender 2 yards away could be a huge impediment or no impediment at all. A binary check is possible, but that would lead to escaping ridiculous coverage being valued the same as completing a play under some light coverage. If it's just a couple of guys watching the game assigning scores to pressure on every play it just seems dumb.

[Demosthenes11]

I assume the pressure will be a simple scale - 0, 1, or 2. Either there is no pressure, a little pressure, or a lot. I don't think that's a difficult score to give based on watching